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Minutes: Key comments from Floden

RIKSBANK
  • "The economic recovery appears to be continuing and seems to be somewhat faster than we anticipated in April. In parallel with this growing optimism, the pandemic has nevertheless continued to cause concern... The risk of setbacks remains."
  • "It is good that inflation expectations have risen to levels that are in line with our inflation target. And there is no harm in inflation periodically overshooting 2 per cent after a decade dominated by below-target inflation outcomes; inflation has been lower than 2 per cent 100 of the last 120 months. My assessment is that inflationary pressures are still weak."
  • "Although the risk that inflation and inflation expectations fall to problematically low levels has decreased during the year, the risk of such a scenario is nevertheless greater than the risk that inflation rises in a problematic way. I therefore do not rule out a situation in which more expansionary monetary policy may be justified. In that case, a rate cut is close at hand."
  • "I am not convinced that it will be appropriate to hold the repo rate at zero per cent for the whole three-year period in our forecast. Compared with the forecast from the monetary policy meeting in April, we are now adding a new quarter, the third quarter of 2024. Which monetary policy will be appropriate in three years' time is of course almost impossible to judge today. But based on the development in our forecast, I think that a rate rise during the second half of 2024 may be justified."
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