Missiles Hit Western Cities; Belarus: Russia Joint Force 'Defensive'

Reports emerging on social media channels and wires that a number of cities in Ukraine, including Lviv, Rivne and Ivano-Frankivsk in the far-west of the country, have been hit by Russian missiles this morning.

• There remains speculation about how long the Russian long-range missile attacks can continue to be launched on Ukrainian cities outside of the areas of intense fighting in the Donbas and south of Ukraine. The cutting off of Russia from western supply chains has notably limited Russia's ability to manufacture long-range missiles at pace.
• The Russian gov't will also be aware of wanting to keep a sizable store of long-range missiles in reserve in the event of an outbreak of conflict with NATO. As such, a sustained campaign of long-range missile attacks into central and western Ukraine seems unlikely.
• Aside from the missile attacks, Belarus has stated that the recently announced joint force with Russia is 'purely defensive'. However, Ukraine and the West is unlikely to take Minsk at its word. There are concerns that the joint force could seek to launch a second offensive from Belarusian territory towards Kyiv, following the failed attempt to take the city in the early stages of the conflict.