MNI 5 THINGS: Canada GDP -0.1%; Drag From Energy,Real Estate>

--5 Things We Learned From Canadian GDP Data

By Yali N'Diaye

     OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the January 

data on Canadian GDP by industry released Thursday by Statistics Canada: 

     - Canada GDP contracted 0.1% in January, a disappointing 

performance in light of the 0.1% gain expected by analysts in a MNI 

survey. The last time GDP contracted was in August 2017 (-0.1%). Gains 

and decreases were evenly split between the 20 industrial sectors. 

     - Goods-producing industries were down 0.4%, a decrease last 

matched in August 2017, owing to a 2.1% drop in energy, the largest 

since May 2016, led by oil and gas extraction (-3.6%). Excluding energy, 

January GDP edged up 0.1%, the same as in December. 

     - Manufacturing surprised on the upside, however, with a 0.7% gain, 

while real manufacturing sales had declined 1.1% over the month. The 

gain was led by non-durable manufacturing, which was up 1.6%, the 

largest gain since July 2016. 

     - Services were also weak in January, as they were unchanged, 

failing to post a gain for the first time since May 2016. As expected, 

real estate and rental and leasing was a drag, with a 0.5% decrease, the 

largest since October 2008. Home resales were pulled forward to the end 

of 2017 in anticipation of tighter mortgage rules in effect since 

January, boosting output of real estate agents and brokers by 6.4% in 

December. January saw a reversal, with the latter category falling 

12.8%, the largest drop since November 2008. Legal and accounting 

services also suffered (-1.9%). 

     - Overall, January GDP data add even more downside risk to the Bank 

of Canada's first quarter growth outlook than anticipated. 

--MNI Ottawa Bureau; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com 

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