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MNI 5 THINGS: Canada GDP -0.1%; Drag From Energy,Real Estate>

--5 Things We Learned From Canadian GDP Data
By Yali N'Diaye
     OTTAWA (MNI) - The following are the key points from the January 
data on Canadian GDP by industry released Thursday by Statistics Canada: 
     - Canada GDP contracted 0.1% in January, a disappointing 
performance in light of the 0.1% gain expected by analysts in a MNI 
survey. The last time GDP contracted was in August 2017 (-0.1%). Gains 
and decreases were evenly split between the 20 industrial sectors. 
     - Goods-producing industries were down 0.4%, a decrease last 
matched in August 2017, owing to a 2.1% drop in energy, the largest 
since May 2016, led by oil and gas extraction (-3.6%). Excluding energy, 
January GDP edged up 0.1%, the same as in December. 
     - Manufacturing surprised on the upside, however, with a 0.7% gain, 
while real manufacturing sales had declined 1.1% over the month. The 
gain was led by non-durable manufacturing, which was up 1.6%, the 
largest gain since July 2016. 
     - Services were also weak in January, as they were unchanged, 
failing to post a gain for the first time since May 2016. As expected, 
real estate and rental and leasing was a drag, with a 0.5% decrease, the 
largest since October 2008. Home resales were pulled forward to the end 
of 2017 in anticipation of tighter mortgage rules in effect since 
January, boosting output of real estate agents and brokers by 6.4% in 
December. January saw a reversal, with the latter category falling 
12.8%, the largest drop since November 2008. Legal and accounting 
services also suffered (-1.9%). 
     - Overall, January GDP data add even more downside risk to the Bank 
of Canada's first quarter growth outlook than anticipated. 
--MNI Ottawa Bureau; email: 

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