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Free AccessMNI ANALYSIS: Australia Job Ads Point To Steady Jobless Rate
--Job Ads Down Four Months In Last Eight
By Sophia Rodrigues
SYDNEY (MNI) - Job advertisements in Australia fell in August, marking the
fourth decline in the eight months of this year and no longer pointing to
decline in the jobless rate.
In level terms, the number of job advertisements in August was slightly
lower than January, and could be regarded as a warning sign for the outlook of
the labor market. The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy outlook is
highly dependent on continued improvement in the labor market, so any
deterioration in the outlook poses risk for its guidance for the next move in
the cash rate to be up.
Data published by ANZ Monday showed job ads fell 0.6% m/m in August,
following a 1.4% rise in July. In trend terms, the m/m pace rose 0.1%, after two
months of flat outcome.
In y/y terms, job ads rose 5.1% in August marking the slowest growth rate
since December 2016. In y/y trend terms, the 6.2% rise in August was the slowest
since November 2016.
ANZ's head of Australian economics David Plank said the level of job ads is
still consistent with further growth in employment but no longer pointing to a
further decline in the jobless rate.
But given other indicators of the labor market such as capacity utilization
are still pointing to further declines in the jobless rate, Plank's view is that
a "lower unemployment is more likely than not, but the improvement from this
point will be gradual."
It is important to note that the outlook for the labor market is extremely
important for the RBA's monetary policy because Governor Philip Lowe has
indicated that as long as the labor market is improving, he wouldn't worry too
much about low inflation.
From the ANZ job advertisement survey for August
August July
---------------------------------------------------------------
Job Ads (SA*, Change M/M) -0.6 +1.4% (revised from +1.5%)
Job Ads (SA*, Change Y/Y) +5.1% +7.3%
Job Ads (Trend, Change M/M) +0.1% 0.0
Job Ads (Trend, Change Y/Y) +6.2% +6.9%
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE,MALDS$,M$A$$$,M$L$$$,MT$$$$]
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.