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BEIJING (MNI) - China's growth in November showed more weakness with retail
sales dipping to the slowest level on record, industrial production at 10-year
low, even as fixed-asset investment(FAI) continued to expand, according to data
by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday.
Retail Sales gained 8.1% y/y in November, down from October's 8.6%, missing
the median of 9.0% forecast in an MNI survey. This indicated that consumers
didn't seem to have the confidence to spend and the new tax deduction policy
kicked off in October hasn't made an impact.
The sharp drop in November is mainly attributed to the declining auto
sales, as well as petroleum products reduced by lower gasoline and diesel
prices, said Mao Shengyong, the spokesman of NBS.
Auto sales extended its decline for the fifth month, shrinking 10% y/y from
a year earlier. The growth of petroleum products registered 8.5% y/y, half the
level of October's 17.1%. These two items have dragged down the total retail
sales growth by more than 0.7 percentage point, Mao said.
Online retail sales continued to grow strong. Online consumption totalled
CNY 8.069 trillion for the first 11 months, a rise of 24.1% y/y, compared with
the CNY7.054 trillion and 25.5% in the Jan-Oct period. The Double Eleven
e-commerce shopping festival helped growth but less than expected, said Mao.
- STAGNANT INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITIES
Industrial output slipped to 5.4% y/y in November, hitting a 10-year low
and below the median of 5.9% projected by an MNI survey, down from October's
5.9%, signaling the economy could see more downward pressure.
The cooldown of automobile, petrochemical, and IT industries weighed on the
total industrial production, according to Mao. In particular, auto production
saw a negative growth of 3.2% y/y, worse than October's -0.7%.
Sluggish domestic demand, as well softer foreign demand amid the backdrop
of trade tensions and the slowdown of the global economy could further reduce
- STABILIZED INVESTMENT
FAI grew 5.9% in Jan-Nov, higher than 5.8% median in an MNI survey,
continuing to expand for the fourth consecutive month, driven by the uptick in
manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure investment.
Manufacturing investment grew 9.5% y/y in the first 11 months, up 0.4
percentage point from Jan-Oct, indicating that the previous stimulus policies to
boost the private economy have gradually taken effect.
Infrastructure investment growth stayed flat from Jan-Oct at 3.7%.
Property investment grew 9.7% y/y, also flat from the gain seen in the
first 10 months. However, judging from the slowdown in land transactions in
recent months, real estate investment is expected to decline moderately in the
next year, Mao said.
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