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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis
26 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Still Need Close Above 97.780
*RES 4: 97.855 - High Jan 10
*RES 3: 97.804 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: 97.780 - High Jan 17
*RES 1: 97.770 - High Jan 24
*PRICE: 97.750 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.715 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19
*SUP 3: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: 97.550 - Low Dec 3 2014
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the contract remaining capped ahead of the
97.780-804 region where the 21-DMA is located following the bounce form 2018
lows. The contract remains heavy despite daily studies correcting from O/S. The
lack of topside follow through past 2 days adds weight to the bearish case and
sees immediate focus on 97.690 with bears currently focused on 2015 lows.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.2200-2455 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: 97.2455 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance
*RES 2: 97.2050 - High Jan 24
*RES 1: 97.1700 - High Jan 25
*PRICE: 97.1500 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.1250 - Low Jan 25
*SUP 2: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3
*SUP 3: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21
*SUP 4: 96.9875 - 2017 Low Mar 10
*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on the recovery from 2018
lows with daily studies correcting from O/S adding support. Support emerging on
dips is a concern for bears who remain focused on 97.0750-0900 and a close below
to pressure 2017 lows. Bulls need a close above 97.2200 to gain breathing room
and above the 100-DMA (97.2980) to shift focus to 97.3523-4000 where 55 &
200-DMAs are noted.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 122-20 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 123-09 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance
*RES 3: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16, 21-DMA
*RES 2: 122-30 Hourly resistance Jan 17
*RES 1: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance
*PRICE: 122-13 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: 121-31 2018 Low Jan 25
*SUP 2: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011
*SUP 3: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011
*SUP 4: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011
*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the most recent 2018 and 6+ year
low with O/S daily studies looking to correct the key concern for bears. The
122-20 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above this level to hint at a
correction back to 123-03+/123-20 where a channel top and 21-DMA are situated.
Bears remain focused on 120-25+/121-22+ while 122-20 caps but need a close below
121-31 to gain breathing room.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Rejection A Concern
*RES 4: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014
*RES 3: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014
*RES 2: 2.672 - 2018 High Jan 22
*RES 1: 2.650 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance
*PRICE: 2.619 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 2.609 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: 2.585 - Low Jan 18
*SUP 3: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support
*SUP 4: 2.531 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 2.692 resistance remains a concern for
bulls with momentum divergence noted and daily studies correcting from very O/B
levels seen weighing. Bears now need a close below 2.609 to ease bullish
pressure and 2.571 to hint at a correction back to 2.489-531 where the 21-DMA
(2.525) is noted. Above 2.692 to is needed to confirm focus on 2.763-821 where
the daily bull channel top (2.782) is situated.
JGB TECHS: (H18) Above 150.42 To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: 150.56 - High Jan 15
*RES 3: 150.53 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: 150.48 - Alternating support/resistance
*RES 1: 150.42 - High Jan 24
*PRICE: 150.31 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 150.25 - 2018 Low Jan 18
*SUP 2: 150.19 - Low Oct 23
*SUP 3: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3
*SUP 4: 150.06 - Low July 20
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA
with bulls needing a close above the 200-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift
initial focus to 150.72-84 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. A close above 150.84
is needed to target 151.19-21. Bears remain focused on the break of 150.19
needed to reconfirm focus on 150.06-08 and hint at a move targeting the 200-WMA
(149.19).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.