MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

26 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Bulls Still Need Close Above 97.780 

*RES 4: 97.855 - High Jan 10 

*RES 3: 97.804 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 97.780 - High Jan 17 

*RES 1: 97.770 - High Jan 24

*PRICE: 97.750 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.715 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 3: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: 97.550 - Low Dec 3 2014

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the contract remaining capped ahead of the

97.780-804 region where the 21-DMA is located following the bounce form 2018

lows. The contract remains heavy despite daily studies correcting from O/S. The

lack of topside follow through past 2 days adds weight to the bearish case and

sees immediate focus on 97.690 with bears currently focused on 2015 lows.

AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) 97.2200-2455 Resistance Region Key 

*RES 4: 97.2455 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance

*RES 2: 97.2050 - High Jan 24

*RES 1: 97.1700 - High Jan 25

*PRICE: 97.1500 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.1250 - Low Jan 25

*SUP 2: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3

*SUP 3: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*SUP 4: 96.9875 - 2017 Low Mar 10

*COMMENTARY: Bulls have so far failed to capitalise on the recovery from 2018

lows with daily studies correcting from O/S adding support. Support emerging on

dips is a concern for bears who remain focused on 97.0750-0900 and a close below

to pressure 2017 lows. Bulls need a close above 97.2200 to gain breathing room

and above the 100-DMA (97.2980) to shift focus to 97.3523-4000 where 55 &

200-DMAs are noted.

US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 122-20 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: 123-09 Hourly support Jan 9 now resistance

*RES 3: 123-05+ Highs Jan 11 & 16, 21-DMA

*RES 2: 122-30 Hourly resistance Jan 17

*RES 1: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance

*PRICE: 122-13 @ 0530GMT

*SUP 1: 121-31 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 2: 121-22+ Monthly Low July 1 2011

*SUP 3: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*SUP 4: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011

*COMMENTARY: Follow through has been lacking on the most recent 2018 and 6+ year

low with O/S daily studies looking to correct the key concern for bears. The

122-20 resistance remains key. Bulls need a close above this level to hint at a

correction back to 123-03+/123-20 where a channel top and 21-DMA are situated.

Bears remain focused on 120-25+/121-22+ while 122-20 caps but need a close below

121-31 to gain breathing room.

US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Topside Rejection A Concern

*RES 4: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014 

*RES 3: 2.692 - Monthly High July 3 2014 

*RES 2: 2.672 - 2018 High Jan 22 

*RES 1: 2.650 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 2.619 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.609 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: 2.585 - Low Jan 18 

*SUP 3: 2.571 - Hourly resistance Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.531 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 2.692 resistance remains a concern for

bulls with momentum divergence noted and daily studies correcting from very O/B

levels seen weighing. Bears now need a close below 2.609 to ease bullish

pressure and 2.571 to hint at a correction back to 2.489-531 where the 21-DMA

(2.525) is noted. Above 2.692 to is needed to confirm focus on 2.763-821 where

the daily bull channel top (2.782) is situated.

JGB TECHS: (H18) Above 150.42 To Gain Breathing Room 

*RES 4: 150.56 - High Jan 15

*RES 3: 150.53 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: 150.48 - Alternating support/resistance

*RES 1: 150.42 - High Jan 24

*PRICE: 150.31 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.25 - 2018 Low Jan 18 

*SUP 2: 150.19 - Low Oct 23 

*SUP 3: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3 

*SUP 4: 150.06 - Low July 20

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA

with bulls needing a close above the 200-DMA to end bearish hopes and shift

initial focus to 150.72-84 where 55 & 100-DMAs are noted. A close above 150.84

is needed to target 151.19-21. Bears remain focused on the break of 150.19

needed to reconfirm focus on 150.06-08 and hint at a move targeting the 200-WMA

(149.19).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]