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MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis
30 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Above 21-DMA To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: 97.855 - High Jan 10
*RES 3: 97.793 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: 97.780 - High Jan 17
*RES 1: 97.770 - High Jan 24
*PRICE: 97.725 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.710 - Low Jan 29
*SUP 2: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19
*SUP 3: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: 97.550 - Low Dec 3 2014
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the contract remaining capped ahead of the
97.780-793 region where the 21-DMA is located following the bounce from 2018
lows. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus to 97.855. The
contract remains heavy despite daily studies correcting from O/S. The lack of
topside follow through last week adds weight to the bearish case and sees
immediate focus on 97.690 with overall bearish focus on 2015 lows.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) Bears In Control While 21-DMA Caps
*RES 4: 97.2281 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance
*RES 2: 97.2050 - High Jan 24
*RES 1: 97.1700 - High Jan 25 & 26
*PRICE: 97.1350 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.1050 - 2018 Low Jan 22
*SUP 2: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3
*SUP 3: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21
*SUP 4: 96.9875 - 2017 Low Mar 10
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the recovery from 2018 lows despite
daily studies correcting from O/S adding support. Support emerging on dips is a
concern for bears who remain focused on 97.0750-0900 and a close below to
pressure 2017 lows. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA ease bearish pressure
and above the 100-DMA (97.2930) to shift initial focus to 97.3493-4000 where 55
& 200-DMAs & the bear channel top are noted.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) 122-20 Resistance Remains Key
*RES 4: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance
*RES 3: 122-10+ Hourly resistance Jan 26
*RES 2: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance
*RES 1: 121-31 Low Jan 25 now resistance
*PRICE: 121-26 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 121-19+ Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 121-18 2018 Low Jan 29
*SUP 3: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011
*SUP 4: 119-24 Low Apr 21 2011
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows have lacked a little follow through
which is a concern given daily studies overdue a correction from O/S levels and
the Bollinger base limiting follow through. Bulls need a close above 122-04+ to
hint at a correction to 123-01+/123-20 with above 122-20 to confirm. Bears now
focus on 120-25+while 122-20 caps but need a close below 121-18 to add weight to
their case.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Immediate Focus On 2.748-912
*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014
*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014
*RES 2: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014
*RES 1: 2.727 - 2018 High Jan 29
*PRICE: 2.697 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 2.691 - Hourly resistance Jan 29 now support
*SUP 2: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26
*SUP 3: 2.609 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 4: 2.585 - Low Jan 18
*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support has now provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+
year highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.748-912 and overall focus on 3.041
2014 highs (Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.724) is a concern and currently
limits follow through. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close
below 2.654 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to 2.554-609
where key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.
JGB TECHS: (H18) Overall Focus On 200-WMA
*RES 4: 150.56 - High Jan 15
*RES 3: 150.48 - Alternating support/resistance, 21-DMA
*RES 2: 150.38 - Hourly support Jan 26 now resistance
*RES 1: 150.31 - High Jan 29
*PRICE: 150.26 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 150.19 - Low Oct 23
*SUP 2: 150.17 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3
*SUP 4: 150.06 - Low July 20
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA
with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above the 200-DMA
(150.63) to shift initial focus to 150.71-76 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated.
Bears remain focused on the break of 150.19 needed to reconfirm focus on
150.06-08 and hint at a move targeting the 200-WMA (149.22).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
To read the full story
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Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Sign up now for free trial access to this content.
Please enter your details below.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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