MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis

31 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/phluope

AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Above 21-DMA To Shift Focus Higher 

*RES 4: 97.855 - High Jan 10 

*RES 3: 97.789 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: 97.780 - High Jan 17 

*RES 1: 97.770 - High Jan 24

*PRICE: 97.730 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.710 - Low Jan 29 

*SUP 2: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19 

*SUP 3: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: 97.550 - Low Dec 3 2014

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the contract remaining capped ahead of the

97.780-789 region where the 21-DMA is located following the recovery from 2018

lows. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus to 97.855. The

contract remains heavy despite daily studies correcting from O/S. The lack of

topside follow through last week adds weight to the bearish case and sees

immediate focus on 97.690 with overall bearish focus on 2015 lows.

     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) Bears In Control While 21-DMA Caps 

*RES 4: 97.2205 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance

*RES 2: 97.2050 - High Jan 24

*RES 1: 97.1700 - Repeated daily highs Jan

*PRICE: 97.1500 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 97.1050 - 2018 Low Jan 22

*SUP 2: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3

*SUP 3: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21

*SUP 4: 96.9875 - 2017 Low Mar 10

*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the recovery from 2018 lows despite

daily studies correcting from O/S adding support. Support emerging on dips is a

concern for bears who remain focused on 97.0750-0900 and a close below to

pressure 2017 lows. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA ease bearish pressure

and above the 100-DMA (97.2904) to shift initial focus to 97.3390-4000 where 55

& 200-DMAs & the bear channel top are noted.

     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On 120-25+

*RES 4: 122-20  Low Jan 12 now resistance

*RES 3: 122-10+ Hourly resistance Jan 26

*RES 2: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*RES 1: 121-31  Low Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: 121-21 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 121-17  2018 Low Jan 30

*SUP 2: 121-15  Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: 121-08+ Daily Bear channel base

*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows have lacked a little follow through

which is a concern given daily studies overdue a correction from O/S levels and

the Bollinger base limiting follow through. Bulls need a close above 122-04+ to

hint at a correction to 122-26+/123-20 with above 122-20 to confirm. Bears

initially focus on 120-25+ while 122-20 caps but need a close below 121-17 to

add weight to their case.

     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Initial Focus On 2.748-912

*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014 

*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014 

*RES 2: 2.797 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 1: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014

*PRICE: 2.726 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 2.709 - Hourly support Jan 30 

*SUP 2: 2.690 - Hourly support Jan 29 

*SUP 3: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 4: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26

*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support has provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+ year

highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.748-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014

highs (Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.744) is a concern and currently limits

follow through. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below

2.676 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.654 to hint at a correction to

2.568-609 where key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.

     JGB TECHS: (H18) Overall Focus On 200-WMA 

*RES 4: 150.46 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: 150.38 - Hourly support Jan 26 now resistance

*RES 2: 150.31 - High Jan 29

*RES 1: 150.27 - High Jan 30

*PRICE: 150.22 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 150.12 - 2018 Low Jan 30, Bollinger band base 

*SUP 2: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3 

*SUP 3: 150.06 - Low July 20 

*SUP 4: 149.92 - Low July 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA

with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above the 200-DMA

(150.63) to hint at a shift higher in focus with above 150.84 to target 151.19

Nov highs. Bears now focus on a the close below 150.06 needed to add weight to

the case for a move targeting the 200-WMA (149.22).

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]