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MNI Asian Morning FI Technical Analysis
31 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (H18) Above 21-DMA To Shift Focus Higher
*RES 4: 97.855 - High Jan 10
*RES 3: 97.789 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: 97.780 - High Jan 17
*RES 1: 97.770 - High Jan 24
*PRICE: 97.730 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.710 - Low Jan 29
*SUP 2: 97.690 - 2018 Low Jan 19
*SUP 3: 97.605 - 2015 Low Dec 12
*SUP 4: 97.550 - Low Dec 3 2014
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the contract remaining capped ahead of the
97.780-789 region where the 21-DMA is located following the recovery from 2018
lows. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus to 97.855. The
contract remains heavy despite daily studies correcting from O/S. The lack of
topside follow through last week adds weight to the bearish case and sees
immediate focus on 97.690 with overall bearish focus on 2015 lows.
AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (H18) Bears In Control While 21-DMA Caps
*RES 4: 97.2205 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: 97.2200 - Hourly support Jan 17 now resistance
*RES 2: 97.2050 - High Jan 24
*RES 1: 97.1700 - Repeated daily highs Jan
*PRICE: 97.1500 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 97.1050 - 2018 Low Jan 22
*SUP 2: 97.0900 - Monthly Low Oct 3
*SUP 3: 97.0750 - Monthly Low Sept 21
*SUP 4: 96.9875 - 2017 Low Mar 10
*COMMENTARY: Bulls failed to capitalise on the recovery from 2018 lows despite
daily studies correcting from O/S adding support. Support emerging on dips is a
concern for bears who remain focused on 97.0750-0900 and a close below to
pressure 2017 lows. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA ease bearish pressure
and above the 100-DMA (97.2904) to shift initial focus to 97.3390-4000 where 55
& 200-DMAs & the bear channel top are noted.
US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (H18) Immediate Focus On 120-25+
*RES 4: 122-20 Low Jan 12 now resistance
*RES 3: 122-10+ Hourly resistance Jan 26
*RES 2: 122-04+ Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance
*RES 1: 121-31 Low Jan 25 now resistance
*PRICE: 121-21 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 121-17 2018 Low Jan 30
*SUP 2: 121-15 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: 121-08+ Daily Bear channel base
*SUP 4: 120-25+ Low Apr 29 2011
*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 and 6+ year lows have lacked a little follow through
which is a concern given daily studies overdue a correction from O/S levels and
the Bollinger base limiting follow through. Bulls need a close above 122-04+ to
hint at a correction to 122-26+/123-20 with above 122-20 to confirm. Bears
initially focus on 120-25+ while 122-20 caps but need a close below 121-17 to
add weight to their case.
US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: Initial Focus On 2.748-912
*RES 4: 2.912 - High Jan 15 2014
*RES 3: 2.821 - Monthly High Mar 7 2014
*RES 2: 2.797 - Daily Bull channel top
*RES 1: 2.748 - High Apr 22 2014
*PRICE: 2.726 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 2.709 - Hourly support Jan 30
*SUP 2: 2.690 - Hourly support Jan 29
*SUP 3: 2.676 - High Jan 25 now support
*SUP 4: 2.654 - Hourly support Jan 26
*COMMENTARY: The 2.609 support has provided the base for fresh 2018 & 3+ year
highs with immediate bullish focus on 2.748-912 and overall focus on 3.041 2014
highs (Jan 2). The Bollinger band top (2.744) is a concern and currently limits
follow through. Layers of support are building with bears needing a close below
2.676 to ease bullish pressure and below 2.654 to hint at a correction to
2.568-609 where key supports and the 21-DMA are noted.
JGB TECHS: (H18) Overall Focus On 200-WMA
*RES 4: 150.46 - 21-DMA
*RES 3: 150.38 - Hourly support Jan 26 now resistance
*RES 2: 150.31 - High Jan 29
*RES 1: 150.27 - High Jan 30
*PRICE: 150.22 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 150.12 - 2018 Low Jan 30, Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: 150.08 - Monthly Low Oct 3
*SUP 3: 150.06 - Low July 20
*SUP 4: 149.92 - Low July 14
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows has remained capped ahead of the 21-DMA
with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and above the 200-DMA
(150.63) to hint at a shift higher in focus with above 150.84 to target 151.19
Nov highs. Bears now focus on a the close below 150.06 needed to add weight to
the case for a move targeting the 200-WMA (149.22).
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.