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GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK

EU, France Ease Up On Vaccine IP After US States Support

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Markets Mixed, EUR/USD The Standout

FRANCE AUCTION RESULTS

France Sells E10.355bn of OATs

1 June 2018
By Kyle Shortland
     
Click below for today's MNI FI Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/phluope
AUSSIE 3-YR TECHS: (M18) Topside Follow Through Lacking 
*RES 4: 97.935 - High Mar 15 
*RES 3: 97.930 - Weekly Bear channel top off 2016 high 
*RES 2: 97.910 - High Mar 29 
*RES 1: 97.878 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: 97.840 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.813 - 100-DMA 
*SUP 2: 97.797 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 97.792 - 21-DMA 
*SUP 4: 97.770 - Low May 24
*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of the weekly bear channel top off 2016 highs is
less than ideal with daily studies correcting from O/B. The closes below the
200-DMA are a concern with focus having returned to layers of support 97.770-813
where key DMAs are noted. Bears now need a close below 99.770 to return focus to
2018 lows. Bulls need a close above the 200-DMA to gain breathing room and above
97.955 to shift focus to 98.110 Dec highs.
     AUSSIE 10-YR TECHS: (M18) 100-WMA Capping 
*RES 4: 97.4143 - 100-WMA
*RES 3: 97.4100 - High May 30
*RES 2: 97.3800 - Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 1: 97.3550 - Hourly resistance May 30
*PRICE: 97.3150 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 97.2900 - Low May 30
*SUP 2: 97.2643 - 200-DMA
*SUP 3: 97.2392 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: 97.2116 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The rejection around the 100-WMA has left the contract looking
offered and returned focus to 97.1500-2643 where key DMAs are located. Bears
need a close below 97.1500 to confirm breaks of DMAs and to shift immediate
focus back to 97.0450-1046 where the weekly LT bull channel base and 2018 low
are noted. Bulls now need a close above the 100-WMA to target 97.5200 Dec highs
with above 97.4400 to add support.
     US 10-YR FUTURE TECHS: (U18) Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA
*RES 4: 121-12  Monthly High Apr (Cont)
*RES 3: 121-03  High May 30
*RES 2: 120-24  Hourly resistance May 30a
*RES 1: 120-16  Hourly resistance May 30
*PRICE: 120-05+ @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 119-29  Hourly support May 29
*SUP 2: 119-21+ 55-DMA
*SUP 3: 119-11  Low May 28
*SUP 4: 119-03+ 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on fresh 3mth highs is less than ideal
for bulls given O/B daily studies. The 55-DMA remains key support with bears
needing to hint at a move back to 2018 lows with below 118-30 to confirm a break
of the 21-DMA and add weight to the case. Bulls now need a close above 121-12 to
shift immediate focus to 122-02 and overall focus to 123-23+/124-05+ where the
55-WMA is noted.
     US 10-YR YIELD TECHS: 2.922 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: 2.980 - 21-DMA 
*RES 3: 2.955 - Low May 24 now resistance 
*RES 2: 2.922 - Low May 25 now resistance 
*RES 1: 2.903 - 55-DMA
*PRICE: 2.860 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 2.821 - Hourly support May 30 
*SUP 2: 2.790 - Hourly support May 30a 
*SUP 3: 2.759 - Low May 29 
*SUP 4: 2.717 - Monthly Low Apr 2
*COMMENTARY: The break of the 21-WMA (2.845) & the bull channel base (2.867) off
2017 lows has lacked follow through with the closes above the 100-DMA (2.842)
buying bulls breathing room. The 2.922 resistance is key. Bulls need a close
above this level to hint at a move back to 2018 highs with above 3.014 needed to
add further support. While 2.922 caps bears remain focused on Apr lows but need
a close below 2.821 to gain breathing room.
     JGB TECHS: (M18) Bears Need Close Below 150.90
*RES 4: 151.19 - Monthly High Nov 22
*RES 3: 151.15 - 2018 High Mar 2
*RES 2: 151.13 - Monthly High May 30
*RES 1: 151.02 - Hourly resistance May 30
*PRICE: 150.99 @ 2130GMT
*SUP 1: 150.90 - Hourly support May 28 
*SUP 2: 150.83 - 55-DMA 
*SUP 3: 150.75 - 200-DMA 
*SUP 4: 150.73 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The 151.15-19 resistance confirmed significance once again with the
contract rejected ahead of this level and looking a little offered. Bears now
need a close below 150.90 to return focus to 150.73-83 where key DMAs are
clustered. Correcting modestly O/B studies are adding weight to the case for a
correction. Bulls now need a close above 151.02 to return pressure to 151.13-19.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]