MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

26 January 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Aggressively Rejected Ahead Of 2017 High

*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015

*RES 3: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8

*RES 2: $0.8105 - Hourly resistance Jan 25

*RES 1: $0.8056 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.8021 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16 

*SUP 4: $0.7908 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of the 2017 high has left the pair looking heavy

and combined with correcting O/B daily studies increases the risk of a

correction back to $0.7874-0.7916 where the 21-DMA ($0.7908) is noted. Initial

resistance is noted at $0.8056 with bulls needing a close above to gain

breathing room. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.8162 to shift focus

to $0.8295-0.8542 where the weekly bull channel top ($0.8450) is noted.

KIWI TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking, Looking Offered

*RES 4: $0.7525 - High July 28 

*RES 3: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24 

*RES 1: $0.7391 - High Jan 25

*PRICE: $0.7331 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7300 - Hourly support Jan 23

*SUP 2: $0.7244 - Low Jan 18

*SUP 3: $0.7233 - Low Jan 17

*SUP 4: $0.7218 - 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection following 2018 and 4mth highs has left the

pair looking heavy with pressure back on the $0.7300 support. Bears continue to

look for a close below $0.7300 to initially target a correction back to the

21-DMA ($0.7218) and below the 21-DMA to shift focus to $0.7032-0.7127 where key

DMAs are situated. Bulls now need a close above $0.7435 to reconfirm the bullish

bias and target tests of $0.7558 2017 highs.

AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 100-DMA Remains Key Topside

*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.1003 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0988 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0960 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0942 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0907 - High Jan 24 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 - Low Jan 23

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0843 - 200-DMA

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0808 - 55-WMA

*COMMENTARY: The pair remains supported ahead of the 200-DMA and key WMAs and

capped ahead of the 100-DMA. The most recent recovery sees pressure back on the

100-DMA. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes, confirm a

break of the bear channel top and shift immediate focus to NZ$1.1139. Bears now

look for a close below NZ$1.0907 to ease pressure on the 100-DMA. Overall below

the 100-WMA (NZ$1.0732) initially targets 2017 lows.

AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Support Key, Looking Offered

*RES 4: Y89.09 - High Oct 23 

*RES 3: Y88.78 - Hourly support Jan 23 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y88.44 - High Jan 24 

*RES 1: Y88.19 - Hourly resistance Jan 25

*PRICE: Y87.73 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y87.68 - Low Jan 16

*SUP 2: Y87.33 - 100-DMA

*SUP 3: Y86.73 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: Y86.36 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bulls again failed to take out Y89.09 with the correction leaving

the pair looking a little heavy. The 100-DMA is key support. Bears look for a

close below the 100-DMA to initially focus on Y85.92-86.73 where 55 & 200-DMAs

are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y89.09 to reconfirm a

bullish bias and target 2017 highs (Y90.30). The Bollinger band top (Y89.04) is

the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.

EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: 21-DMA Supporting, Above A$1.5526 Targets 2017 High

*RES 4: A$1.5695 - High Dec 7

*RES 3: A$1.5586 - Low Dec 7 Now Resistance

*RES 2: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20

*RES 1: A$1.5495 - High Jan 25

*PRICE: A$1.5455 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5332 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: A$1.5258 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support 

*SUP 4: A$1.5148 - 2018 Low Jan 11

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 21-DMA now supporting as the pair flirts

with the 55-DMA (A$1.5440). Bulls now look for a close above A$1.5526 to add

support to the case for a test of 2017 highs. The Bollinger top (A$1.5452) is

the key concern for bulls and currently limits follow through. Bears now look

for a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to

reconfirm focus on A$1.5034-79 where the 200-DMA is situated.

US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113

*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22 

*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24 

*RES 1: 89.581 - Hourly support Jan 24 now resistance

*PRICE: 89.376 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 88.861 - Hourly resistance Jan 25 now support

*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25

*SUP 3: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014

*SUP 4: 87.701 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped ahead of 91.011 took its toll and resulted

in a break of 90.113 adding weight to the case for a move targeting 88.125 Dec

2014 monthly lows with O/S daily studies remaining their key concern. Layers of

resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above 90.113 to

gain breathing room and above 91.011 to hint at a correction initially targeting

91.316-751.

EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Topside Rejection Weighing

*RES 4: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014

*RES 3: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014

*RES 2: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25

*RES 1: $1.2459 Hourly resistance Jan 25 now support

*PRICE: $1.2371 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support 

*SUP 2: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24 

*SUP 3: $1.2213 Low Jan 22 

*SUP 4: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of $1.2569 sees the pair looking

heavy which is less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B

and the Bollinger band top ($1.2419) limiting follow through. Bears now look for

a close below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2092-1.2156 where the

21-DMA ($1.2127) is noted. While $1.2322 supports bulls remain focused on the LT

weekly bear channel top around $1.2686.

DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.18 Resistance Key

*RES 4: Y111.76 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y111.23 High Jan 22 

*RES 2: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23 

*RES 1: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance

*PRICE: Y109.58 @ 2000GMT

*SUP 1: Y109.14 Hourly resistance Jan 25 now support 

*SUP 2: Y108.12 Low Sept 11 

*SUP 3: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base 

*SUP 4: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8

*COMMENTARY: The aggressive move lower from last week's highs saw the pair

closing below the daily bear channel base and Y109.52 support with immediate

focus now on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and the weekly triangle base are

located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y108.98) remain concerns. Bulls

now need a close above Y110.18 to target a correction back to Y111.22-98 where

key DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below Y109.14 to gain breathing room.

EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.81 Support Confirms Significance

*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015

*RES 3: Y136.66 Bollinger band top

*RES 2: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5

*RES 1: Y136.32 High Jan 8

*PRICE: Y135.59 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12 

*SUP 2: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance 

*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11 

*SUP 4: Y133.26 21-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The Y134.81 support confirmed significance with the pair bouncing

from ahead of this level following dips below the 21-DMA (Y135.26). Bears need a

close below Y134.81 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA

(133.34) and 100-DMA (Y133.31). Below the 100-DMA targets Y130.59-132.03. While

Y134.81 supports focus remains on the close above Y136.62 needed to confirm

focus on Y139.02-141.05.

SPOT GOLD TECHS: Lacking Topside Follow Through

*RES 4: $1433.3 - Monthly High Aug 28 2013 

*RES 3: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 17 

*RES 2: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016 

*RES 1: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016

*PRICE: $1349.3 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1339.2 - Low Jan 24 

*SUP 2: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23 

*SUP 3: $1324.5 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the mid Jan correction has resulted in fresh 2018

& 18mth highs with immediate bullish focus currently on 2016 highs and a close

above then targeting $1391.8-1433.3. The lack of topside follow through is a

concern when combined with modestly O/B studies. Bears now look for a close

below $1344.5 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to the

21-DMA.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]