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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
26 January 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Aggressively Rejected Ahead Of 2017 High
*RES 4: $0.8162 - Monthly high May 14 2015
*RES 3: $0.8124 - 2017 High Sept 8
*RES 2: $0.8105 - Hourly resistance Jan 25
*RES 1: $0.8056 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance
*PRICE: $0.8021 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7990 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: $0.7954 - Low Jan 23
*SUP 3: $0.7935 - Low Jan 16
*SUP 4: $0.7908 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of the 2017 high has left the pair looking heavy
and combined with correcting O/B daily studies increases the risk of a
correction back to $0.7874-0.7916 where the 21-DMA ($0.7908) is noted. Initial
resistance is noted at $0.8056 with bulls needing a close above to gain
breathing room. Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.8162 to shift focus
to $0.8295-0.8542 where the weekly bull channel top ($0.8450) is noted.
KIWI TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking, Looking Offered
*RES 4: $0.7525 - High July 28
*RES 3: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance
*RES 2: $0.7435 - 2018 High Jan 24
*RES 1: $0.7391 - High Jan 25
*PRICE: $0.7331 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7300 - Hourly support Jan 23
*SUP 2: $0.7244 - Low Jan 18
*SUP 3: $0.7233 - Low Jan 17
*SUP 4: $0.7218 - 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection following 2018 and 4mth highs has left the
pair looking heavy with pressure back on the $0.7300 support. Bears continue to
look for a close below $0.7300 to initially target a correction back to the
21-DMA ($0.7218) and below the 21-DMA to shift focus to $0.7032-0.7127 where key
DMAs are situated. Bulls now need a close above $0.7435 to reconfirm the bullish
bias and target tests of $0.7558 2017 highs.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 100-DMA Remains Key Topside
*RES 4: NZ$1.1139 - High Nov 14
*RES 3: NZ$1.1003 - 100-DMA
*RES 2: NZ$1.0988 - 55-DMA
*RES 1: NZ$1.0960 - Hourly support Jan 25 now resistance
*PRICE: NZ$1.0942 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0907 - High Jan 24 now support
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 - Low Jan 23
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0843 - 200-DMA
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0808 - 55-WMA
*COMMENTARY: The pair remains supported ahead of the 200-DMA and key WMAs and
capped ahead of the 100-DMA. The most recent recovery sees pressure back on the
100-DMA. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes, confirm a
break of the bear channel top and shift immediate focus to NZ$1.1139. Bears now
look for a close below NZ$1.0907 to ease pressure on the 100-DMA. Overall below
the 100-WMA (NZ$1.0732) initially targets 2017 lows.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 100-DMA Support Key, Looking Offered
*RES 4: Y89.09 - High Oct 23
*RES 3: Y88.78 - Hourly support Jan 23 now resistance
*RES 2: Y88.44 - High Jan 24
*RES 1: Y88.19 - Hourly resistance Jan 25
*PRICE: Y87.73 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y87.68 - Low Jan 16
*SUP 2: Y87.33 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: Y86.73 - 55-DMA
*SUP 4: Y86.36 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Bulls again failed to take out Y89.09 with the correction leaving
the pair looking a little heavy. The 100-DMA is key support. Bears look for a
close below the 100-DMA to initially focus on Y85.92-86.73 where 55 & 200-DMAs
are situated. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y89.09 to reconfirm a
bullish bias and target 2017 highs (Y90.30). The Bollinger band top (Y89.04) is
the key concern for bulls and limits follow through.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: 21-DMA Supporting, Above A$1.5526 Targets 2017 High
*RES 4: A$1.5695 - High Dec 7
*RES 3: A$1.5586 - Low Dec 7 Now Resistance
*RES 2: A$1.5526 - High Dec 20
*RES 1: A$1.5495 - High Jan 25
*PRICE: A$1.5455 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5332 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: A$1.5258 - 100-DMA
*SUP 3: A$1.5189 - Hourly resistance Jan 11 now support
*SUP 4: A$1.5148 - 2018 Low Jan 11
*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in the 21-DMA now supporting as the pair flirts
with the 55-DMA (A$1.5440). Bulls now look for a close above A$1.5526 to add
support to the case for a test of 2017 highs. The Bollinger top (A$1.5452) is
the key concern for bulls and currently limits follow through. Bears now look
for a close below the 21-DMA to ease bullish pressure and below the 100-DMA to
reconfirm focus on A$1.5034-79 where the 200-DMA is situated.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 90.113
*RES 4: 90.704 - High Jan 22
*RES 3: 90.294 - Hourly resistance Jan 23
*RES 2: 90.113 - Hourly resistance Jan 24
*RES 1: 89.581 - Hourly support Jan 24 now resistance
*PRICE: 89.376 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 88.861 - Hourly resistance Jan 25 now support
*SUP 2: 88.438 - 2018 Low Jan 25
*SUP 3: 88.125 - Monthly Low Dec 16 2014
*SUP 4: 87.701 - Weekly Bear channel base
*COMMENTARY: Having remained capped ahead of 91.011 took its toll and resulted
in a break of 90.113 adding weight to the case for a move targeting 88.125 Dec
2014 monthly lows with O/S daily studies remaining their key concern. Layers of
resistance are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above 90.113 to
gain breathing room and above 91.011 to hint at a correction initially targeting
91.316-751.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Topside Rejection Weighing
*RES 4: $1.2599 Monthly High Nov 19 2014
*RES 3: $1.2569 Monthly High Dec 16 2014
*RES 2: $1.2536 2018 High Jan 25
*RES 1: $1.2459 Hourly resistance Jan 25 now support
*PRICE: $1.2371 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2322 High Jan 17 now support
*SUP 2: $1.2270 Hourly support Jan 24
*SUP 3: $1.2213 Low Jan 22
*SUP 4: $1.2156 Hourly resistance Jan 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive rejection ahead of $1.2569 sees the pair looking
heavy which is less than ideal given daily studies looking to correct from O/B
and the Bollinger band top ($1.2419) limiting follow through. Bears now look for
a close below $1.2322 to shift initial focus back to $1.2092-1.2156 where the
21-DMA ($1.2127) is noted. While $1.2322 supports bulls remain focused on the LT
weekly bear channel top around $1.2686.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y110.18 Resistance Key
*RES 4: Y111.76 200-DMA
*RES 3: Y111.23 High Jan 22
*RES 2: Y110.55 Hourly resistance Jan 23
*RES 1: Y110.18 Low Jan 18 now resistance
*PRICE: Y109.58 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: Y109.14 Hourly resistance Jan 25 now support
*SUP 2: Y108.12 Low Sept 11
*SUP 3: Y107.58 Weekly Triangle base
*SUP 4: Y107.31 2017 Low Sept 8
*COMMENTARY: The aggressive move lower from last week's highs saw the pair
closing below the daily bear channel base and Y109.52 support with immediate
focus now on Y107.31-58 where 2017 lows and the weekly triangle base are
located. O/S daily studies and Bollinger base (Y108.98) remain concerns. Bulls
now need a close above Y110.18 to target a correction back to Y111.22-98 where
key DMAs are noted. Bears need a close below Y109.14 to gain breathing room.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Y134.81 Support Confirms Significance
*RES 4: Y139.02 Monthly High Aug 2015
*RES 3: Y136.66 Bollinger band top
*RES 2: Y136.62 2018 High Jan 5
*RES 1: Y136.32 High Jan 8
*PRICE: Y135.59 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y134.81 Hourly support Jan 12
*SUP 2: Y134.39 Alternating hourly support/resistance
*SUP 3: Y133.60 Hourly support Jan 11
*SUP 4: Y133.26 21-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The Y134.81 support confirmed significance with the pair bouncing
from ahead of this level following dips below the 21-DMA (Y135.26). Bears need a
close below Y134.81 to ease bullish pressure and shift focus back to the 21-WMA
(133.34) and 100-DMA (Y133.31). Below the 100-DMA targets Y130.59-132.03. While
Y134.81 supports focus remains on the close above Y136.62 needed to confirm
focus on Y139.02-141.05.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: Lacking Topside Follow Through
*RES 4: $1433.3 - Monthly High Aug 28 2013
*RES 3: $1391.8 - 2014 High Mar 17
*RES 2: $1374.9 - 2016 High July 6 2016
*RES 1: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016
*PRICE: $1349.3 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1339.2 - Low Jan 24
*SUP 2: $1331.2 - Low Jan 23
*SUP 3: $1324.5 - 21-DMA
*SUP 4: $1321.2 - Hourly support Jan 12
*COMMENTARY: The recovery from the mid Jan correction has resulted in fresh 2018
& 18mth highs with immediate bullish focus currently on 2016 highs and a close
above then targeting $1391.8-1433.3. The lack of topside follow through is a
concern when combined with modestly O/B studies. Bears now look for a close
below $1344.5 to ease bullish pressure and hint at a correction back to the
21-DMA.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.