MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

22 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Breaks Key Support

*RES 4: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7879 - Hourly resistance Feb 21

*PRICE: $0.7812 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7775 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of the $0.7867 support sees initial focus back on

$0.7229-0.7812 where 100 & 200-DMAs and the bull channel base are noted. Below

$0.7729 remains needed to end bullish hopes and shift focus to $0.7500 Dec lows.

Bulls now need a close above $0.7941 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7989

to return focus to $0.8118-62 where 2018 highs are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Remains Offered

*RES 4: $0.7458 - Low July 28 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7385 - Hourly resistance Feb 21

*PRICE: $0.7323 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7284 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*SUP 2: $0.7259 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 3: $0.7189 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: $0.7167 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The correction lower from 2018 & 7mth highs is currently flirting

with the 21-DMA. Bears now look for a close below the 21-DMA to confirm an

easing of bullish pressure and below the daily bull channel base now to shift

focus back to $0.7130-90 where 55 ($0.7189) & 200 ($0.7167) DMAs are situated.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7438 to target 2017 highs ($0.7558).

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Focus On NZ$1.0458-91 While NZ$1.0780 Caps

*RES 4: NZ$1.0808 - High Feb 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.0780 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.0724 - 100-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0700 - Low Feb 16 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0667 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0396 - Monthly Low July 7

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the pair remaining capped ahead of

NZ$1.0780-1.0808 and the break of NZ$1.0700 that now sees focus on NZ$1.0458-91

where the LT rising TL is located. Layers of resistance are following the pair

lower with bulls now needing a close above NZ$1.0780 to gain breathing room and

target a correction back to NZ$1.0840-50 where 21 & 200-DMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y84.89

*RES 4: Y86.61 - 200-DMA 

*RES 3: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 2: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 1: Y84.89 - High Feb 14

*PRICE: Y84.33 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y84.16 - Hourly support Feb 19

*SUP 2: Y83.85 - Hourly support Feb 14

*SUP 3: Y83.64 - 100-WMA

*SUP 4: Y83.32 - 2018 Low Feb 14

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows saw pressure back on Y84.89. Bears take

comfort in the Y84.89 level capping with bulls needing a close above Y84.89 to

gain breathing room and above Y85.59 to shift focus back to Y86.61-87.50 where

key DMAs are clustered. Bears currently focus on Y81.50 Apr 2017 monthly lows

while Y84.89 caps with a close below the 100-WMA to add to bearish confidence.

O/S studies remain a concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5874 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14

*PRICE: A$1.5725 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5667 - Hourly support Feb 21 

*SUP 2: A$1.5601 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 3: A$1.5582 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through has defined Feb so far with fresh

2018 & 2yr highs last week suffering the same fate. Daily studies correcting

from O/B and the weekly Bollinger top remain concerns for bulls. Bears now need

a close below the 21-DMA to shift initial focus to A$1.5461-1.5546 where the

55-DMA is situated. Overall below the 100-DMA (A$1.5383) targets 2018 lows

(A$1.5152) and the 200-DMA (A$1.5140).

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Gaining Traction Above 55-DMA

*RES 4: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 3: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 2: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 1: 90.124 - High Feb 14

*PRICE: 89.885 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 55-DMA (89.587) eased bearish pressure with

above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to

94.219-95.149. Initial support is noted at 89.442 with bears needing a close

below to signal a false break of the 55-DMA and return focus to 87.202-627 where

the weekly bear channel base and Dec 2014 monthly low are situated. Weekly

studies are currently correcting from O/S.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Bears Need Close Below $1.2273

*RES 4: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*PRICE: $1.2325 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2301 Low Feb 21 

*SUP 2: $1.2273 Low Feb 14 

*SUP 3: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 4: $1.2167 Low Jan 17

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel

top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs Friday sees immediate focus on the break of $1.2273

needed to confirm a break of the daily bull channel base. Overall focus is on

the break of $1.2167 to hint at a move back to $1.1915 and below $1.2089 to

confirm. Bulls need a close above $1.2461 to ease bearish pressure and retain

focus on the weekly bear channel top.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bulls Now Need Close Above Y108.42

*RES 4: Y109.78 High Feb 8 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.38 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance

*PRICE: Y107.65 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.30 Hourly support Feb 21 

*SUP 2: Y107.01 Hourly support Feb 20 

*SUP 3: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19 

*SUP 4: Y106.10 Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: The Y105.50 support confirmed significance supporting on fresh 2018

lows. Bears need a close below Y105.50 to add weight to the case for a move to

Y99.08-101.15. Bulls now need a close above Y108.42 to hint at a correction back

to Y110.47 and above Y109.78 to confirm. Correcting O/S daily studies and

Bollinger base (Y106.16) remain concerns for bears who now need a close below

Y107.01 to retain initial focus on Y105.50.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 55-DMA To Shift Focus To 2018 High

*RES 4: Y134.42 55-DMA

*RES 3: Y134.22 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y133.78 High Feb 13

*RES 1: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*PRICE: Y132.63 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y132.26 Hourly support Feb 21 

*SUP 2: Y131.88 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 3: Y131.51 2018 Low Feb 16 

*SUP 4: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from ahead of the 200-DMA is gathering momentum with

layers of resistance Y133.78-134.42 seen as key. Bulls continue to look for a

close above the 55-DMA to end bearish hopes and confirm a shift in overall focus

to tests of 2018 highs (Y137.50). Correcting O/S studies are supporting the

bullish case. Bears now need a close below Y132.26 to gain breathing room and to

reconfirm focus on Y130.50-131.51 with the 200-DMA noted at Y131.14.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1351.3

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 1: $1338.2 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1327.3 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1311.9 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high

resulted in breaks of key supports with bears gaining confidence and focus on

$1298.1-1311.9 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close below

the 100-DMA to hint at a move targeting 2018 lows ($1236.5) with below the

200-DMA ($1285.4) to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1251.3 to return focus

to $1367.3-1374.9.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) $60.57 Support Remains Key 

*RES 4: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 3: $63.94 - High Feb 6 

*RES 2: $62.72 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $62.63 - Low Jan 19 now resistance

*PRICE: $61.22 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $60.77 - Low Feb 16 

*SUP 2: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 3: $59.60 - Low Feb 15 

*SUP 4: $58.75 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 a now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 21-DMA is a concern for bulls who continue

to look for a close above $63.94 to initially target 2018 highs ($66.65). Bears

continue to look for a close below $60.57 to gain breathing room and below the

$57.88 support to confirm a break of the 100-DMA ($58.34) & target the 200-DMA

($53.70). Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to add support to their case.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]