MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

23 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7729-77 Support Region Remains Key

*RES 4: $0.7965 - Hourly support Feb 16a now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7941 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 1: $0.7879 - Hourly resistance Feb 21

*PRICE: $0.7846 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7777 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of the $0.7867 support sees initial focus back on

$0.7229-0.7774 where 100 & 200-DMAs are noted following the break of the bull

channel base ($0.7812). Below $0.7729 remains needed to end bullish hopes and

shift focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls continue to look for a close above

$0.7879 to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7989 to return focus to $0.8118-62

where 2018 highs are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: $0.7267-0.7306 Support Region Key Today

*RES 4: $0.7438 - 2018 High Feb 16 

*RES 3: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 2: $0.7385 - Hourly resistance Feb 21 

*RES 1: $0.7364 - High Feb 22

*PRICE: $0.7345 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7306 - Low Feb 22

*SUP 2: $0.7284 - Hourly resistance Feb 14 now support

*SUP 3: $0.7267 - Daily Bull channel base

*SUP 4: $0.7189 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off Thursday lacked follow through with the pair bouncing

from below the 21-DMA ($0.7324). Bears now need a close below $0.7306 to confirm

a break of the 21-DMA and below the daily bull channel base to shift focus back

to $0.7130-90 where 55 ($0.7198) & 200 ($0.7170) DMAs are situated. Bulls now

need a close above $0.7385 to gain breathing room and above $0.7438 to target

2017 highs ($0.7558).

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Focus On NZ$1.0458-91 While NZ$1.0780 Caps

*RES 4: NZ$1.0808 - High Feb 14

*RES 3: NZ$1.0780 - Hourly resistance Feb 14

*RES 2: NZ$1.0724 - 100-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0700 - Low Feb 16 now resistance

*PRICE: NZ$1.0685 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the pair remaining capped ahead of

NZ$1.0780-1.0808 and the break of NZ$1.0700 that now shifted focus on

NZ$1.0458-91 where the LT rising TL is located. Layers of resistance are

following the pair lower with bulls now needing a close above NZ$1.0780 to gain

breathing room and target a correction back to NZ$1.0850-1.0906 where 55 &

200-DMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 100-WMA

*RES 4: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 3: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 2: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 1: Y84.23 - High Feb 14

*PRICE: Y83.70 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.50 - Low Feb 22

*SUP 2: Y83.32 - 2018 Low Feb 14

*SUP 3: Y82.56 - Low June 8

*SUP 4: Y81.76 - Lows May 18 & June 6 2017

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows saw pressure back on Y84.89. Bears take

comfort in the Y84.89 level capping with bulls needing a close above Y84.89 to

gain breathing room and above Y85.59 to shift focus back to Y86.61-87.50 where

key DMAs are clustered. Bears currently focus on Y81.50 Apr 2017 monthly lows

while Y84.89 caps with a close below the 100-WMA (Y83.64) to add to bearish

confidence. O/S studies remain a concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Supported Ahead Of 21-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11

*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 2: A$1.5875 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14

*PRICE: A$1.5716 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5667 - Hourly support Feb 21 

*SUP 2: A$1.5601 - Low Feb 13 

*SUP 3: A$1.5598 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through defined Feb with 2018 & 2yr highs

last week suffering the same fate. Daily studies correcting from O/B and the

weekly Bolli top remain concerns for bulls. Bears need a close below the 21-DMA

to shift initial focus to A$1.5461-1.5566. Overall below the 100-DMA (A$1.5397)

targets 2018 lows (A$1.5152) and the 200-DMA (A$1.5147). Bulls need a close

above A$1.5816 to confirm focus on A$1.5968-1.6250.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 89.442 Support Key Today

*RES 4: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 3: 90.567 - High Feb 8 

*RES 2: 90.235 - High Feb 22 

*RES 1: 89.944 - Hourly resistance Feb 22

*PRICE: 89.722 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 2: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 3: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*SUP 4: 88.462 - Hourly resistance Feb 16 now support

*COMMENTARY: The close above the 55-DMA (89.565) eased bearish pressure with

above 91.751 needed to shift initial focus to 92.640 and overall focus to

94.219-95.149. The lack of follow through is less than ideal with bears needing

a close below 89.442 to signal a false break of the 55-DMA, return initial focus

to 2018 lows and overall focus to 86.515-879 where the weekly bear channel base,

Nov 2014 monthly low LT rising weekly TL are situated.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372 Resistance Now Key

*RES 4: $1.2515 Alternating hourly support/resistance

*RES 3: $1.2461 Hourly resistance Feb 16

*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*PRICE: $1.2333 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2259 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 2: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 3: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 4: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel

top ($1.2649) off 2008 highs Friday sees immediate focus now on the

$1.2092-1.2205 support region. Below $1.2092 is needed to end bullish hopes and

initially target $1.1915-69 where the 100-DMA is located. Layers of resistance

are weighing with bulls needing a close above $1.2372 to gain breathing room and

above $1.2461 to shift focus to 2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Fails Ahead of Key Resistance Region

*RES 4: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y108.31 21-DMA 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y107.15 Hourly support Feb 22

*PRICE: Y106.68 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y106.42 Hourly support Feb 19 

*SUP 2: Y106.10 Low Feb 19 

*SUP 3: Y105.50 Monthly High Oct 2016 now support 

*SUP 4: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows and Y105.50 is in trouble with the

failure ahead of Y108.03-42 leaving the pair looking heavy. The likely close

below Y107.01 sees bears retain initial focus on Y105.50 with a close below to

reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16. Y108.03-42 resistance remains key. Bulls need

a close above Y108.42 to hint at a correction back to Y110.47 and above Y109.78

to confirm. 

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y133.05-134.39 Resistance Region Key Overall

*RES 4: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.78 Hourly resistance Feb 21

*RES 1: Y132.06 Hourly resistance Feb 22

*PRICE: Y131.56 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y131.27 2018 Low Feb 22 

*SUP 2: Y131.18 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y131.15 Monthly Low Nov 20 

*SUP 4: Y130.50 Low Sept 14

*COMMENTARY: Despite daily studies correcting from O/S adding support, bulls

failed to capitalise on Wednesday's gains with the pair again looking heavy

trading at 2018 & 3mth lows. The Y130.50-131.27 support region is now key. A

close below Y130.50 is needed to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift

initial focus to Y127.52-129.25. Bulls now need a close above Y133.05 to gain

breathing room and above the 55-DMA (Y134.39) to target 2018 highs (Y137.50).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Close Above 21-DMA To Ease Bearish Pressure

*RES 4: $1367.3 - Monthly High Aug 2 2016 

*RES 3: $1361.7 - High Feb 16 

*RES 2: $1351.3 - High Feb 19 

*RES 1: $1336.7 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $1330.6 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1319.4 - Low Feb 14 

*SUP 2: $1313.3 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 4: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2

*COMMENTARY: Topside hesitation ahead of 2018 highs ($1366.0) & the 2016 high

resulted in breaks of key supports with bears gaining confidence and focus on

$1298.7-1313.3 where 55 & 100-DMAs are situated. Bears look for a close below

the 100-DMA to hint at a move targeting 2018 lows ($1236.5) with below the

200-DMA ($1285.9) to confirm. Bulls need a close above $1251.3 to return focus

to $1367.3-1374.9.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Above $63.93 To Target $66.39-65 

*RES 4: $66.65 - 2018 High Jan 22 (Cont) 

*RES 3: $66.39 - High Jan 25 

*RES 2: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 1: $63.94 - High Feb 6

*PRICE: $62.67 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $62.12 - Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 2: $60.76 - Low Feb 22 

*SUP 3: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $59.60 - Low Feb 15

*COMMENTARY: The $60.57 support confirmed significance with the bounce from

ahead of this level seeing the contract flirting with the 21-DMA ($62.60). Bulls

continue to look for a close above $63.93 to confirm a shift in focus to

$66.39-65 where 2018 highs are situated. Support layers are following J18 higher

with bears now needing a close below $62.12 to gain breathing room and below

$60.57 to shift focus back to $57.90-58.46 where the 100-DMA is noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]