MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

28 February 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

     AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Still Need Close Below $0.7729

*RES 4: $0.7910 - Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 3: $0.7893 - 21-DMA

*RES 2: $0.7866 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7818 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.7796 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7783 - 200-DMA 

*SUP 2: $0.7729 - High Dec 25 now support 

*SUP 3: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support 

*SUP 4: $0.7629 - Low Dec 14

*COMMENTARY: The break of $0.7867 last week shifted initial focus on

$0.7229-0.7779 where 100 & 200-DMAs are located although follow through has been

lacking. Bears continue to look for a close below $0.7729 to end bullish hopes

and shift focus to $0.7500 Dec lows. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA

to ease bearish pressure and above $0.7989 to return focus to $0.8118-62 where

2018 highs and May 2015 monthly highs are noted.

     KIWI TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: $0.7415 - Hourly support Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $0.7385 - High Feb 21 

*RES 2: $0.7345 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26

*PRICE: $0.7238 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7220 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: $0.7174 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support

*SUP 4: $0.7087 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in the aggressive sell-off Friday and closes

below the 21-DMA. The close below $0.7269 confirms a break of the bull channel

base and shift focus back to $0.7130-0.7220 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated.

Bulls continue to look for a close above $0.7345 to gain breathing room and

above $0.7438 2018 highs to target 2017 highs ($0.7558). Daily studies are well

placed for fresh losses.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: 21-DMA Now Capping

*RES 4: NZ$1.0896 - 55-DMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0851 - 200-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0808 - High Feb 14

*RES 1: NZ$1.0789 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: NZ$1.0767 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0741 - Hourly resistance Feb 26 now support

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0700 - Alternating daily support/resistance

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on 2018 lows combined with correcting

O/S studies is less than ideal for bears who are focused on NZ$1.0458-91 where

the LT rising TL is located. The break of NZ$1.0780 has lacked follow through

with the pair capped ahead of the 21-DMA. Bears now need a close back below

NZ$1.0741 to reconfirm focus on NZ$1.0458-91. Bulls now look for a close above

the 21-DMA to shift initial focus to 200 & 55-DMAs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Flirting With 100-WMA

*RES 4: Y86.11 - Hourly resistance Feb 7 

*RES 3: Y85.59 - High Feb 13 

*RES 2: Y84.89 - High Feb 14 

*RES 1: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance

*PRICE: Y83.69 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y83.60 - Low Feb 26

*SUP 2: Y83.27 - 2018 Low Feb 23

*SUP 3: Y82.56 - Low June 8

*SUP 4: Y81.76 - Lows May 18 & June 6 2017

*COMMENTARY: The recovery from 2018 lows saw pressure back on Y84.89. Bears take

comfort in the Y84.89 level capping with bulls needing a close above Y84.89 to

gain breathing room and above Y85.59 to shift focus back to Y86.62-87.45 where

key DMAs are clustered. Bears focus on Y81.50 Apr 2017 monthly lows while Y84.89

caps with a close below the 100-WMA (Y83.62) to add to bearish confidence. O/S

studies remain a concern for bears.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Need Close Below A$1.5598

*RES 4: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016

*RES 3: A$1.5889 - Weekly Bollinger band top

*RES 2: A$1.5816 - 2018 High Feb 14

*RES 1: A$1.5759 - High Feb 23

*PRICE: A$1.5698 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5662 - Hourly support Feb 26 

*SUP 2: A$1.5658 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20 

*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2

*COMMENTARY: A lack of topside follow through has defined Feb with fresh 2018 &

2yr highs suffering the same fate. Bears continue to look for a close below

A$1.5598 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA shifting initial focus to

A$1.5470-1.5566 where the 55-DMA is situated. Overall below A$1.5390 is needed

to target 2018 lows (A$1.5152) and the 200-DMA (A$1.5157). Bulls need a close

above A$1.5816 to confirm focus on A$1.5968-1.6250.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Focus on 91.011-92.640

*RES 4: 92.640 - 2018 High Jan 9 

*RES 3: 91.751 - Low Jan 2 now resistance 

*RES 2: 91.004 - High Jan 18 

*RES 1: 90.567 - High Feb 8

*PRICE: 90.343 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: 90.080 - Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support

*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support

*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19

*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16

*COMMENTARY: The 89.442 support confirmed significance this week with the dip

Monday finding support ahead of this level and seeing immediate pressure back on

the 90.567 resistance. The 91.011-92.640 resistance region is now key. Bulls

need a close above 92.640 to shift focus to 94.076-95.149. Support layers

building adds to bullish confidence. Bears now need a close below 98.080 to gain

breathing room.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Immediate Focus On $1.2092-1.2205

*RES 4: $1.2435 High Feb 19

*RES 3: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20

*RES 2: $1.2359 21-DMA

*RES 1: $1.2259 Low Feb 22 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.2239 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1.2205 Low Feb 9 

*SUP 2: $1.2167 Low Jan 17 

*SUP 3: $1.2092 High Jan 4 now support 

*SUP 4: $1.2018 High Jan 10 now support

*COMMENTARY: Rejection ahead of Dec 2014 monthly highs and the LT bear channel

top ($1.2652) off 2008 highs sees immediate focus on the $1.2092-1.2205 support

region. Below $1.2092 is needed to end bullish hopes and initially target

$1.1915-78 where the 100-DMA is located. Layers of resistance are weighing with

bulls needing a close above $1.2372 to gain breathing room and above $1.2461 to

shift focus to 2018 highs.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.03-42 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: Y109.78 High Feb 8 

*RES 3: Y108.42 Low Feb 12 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance, 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y107.68 High Feb 27

*PRICE: Y107.37 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y107.24 Hourly resistance Feb 27 now support 

*SUP 2: Y106.72 Hourly support Feb 26 

*SUP 3: Y106.36 Low Feb 26 

*SUP 4: Y106.10 Low Feb 19

*COMMENTARY: The Y108.03-42 resistance region remains key. Bulls need a close

above Y108.42 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and bear channel top, hinting at

a correction to Y110.47 and above Y109.78 to confirm. Correcting O/S daily

studies remain a concern for bears. While Y108.42 caps bears retain the upper

hand and remain focused on Y105.50. Bears continue to look for a close below

Y105.50 to reconfirm focus on Y98.95-101.16.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Above 55-DMA To Target 2018 Highs

*RES 4: Y133.43 Hourly support Feb 13 now resistance

*RES 3: Y133.05 High Feb 21

*RES 2: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance

*RES 1: Y131.70 Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: Y131.40 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.91 2018 Low Feb 23 

*SUP 2: Y130.59 Low Sept 15 

*SUP 3: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: O/S daily studies appear to be impacting with the pair having

failed so far to gain traction below the 200-DMA (Y131.28). Bears continue to

look for a close below Y130.59 to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and shift

initial focus to Y127.54-129.34 where monthly lows are noted. Layers of

resistance remain Y132.24-134.28 where key DMAs are situated. Bulls continue to

look for a close above the 55-DMA to target 2018 highs (Y137.50).

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Initial Focus Shifts To 100-DMA

*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26 

*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance

*PRICE: $1317.8 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $1314.0 - Low Feb 27 

*SUP 2: $1305.9 - Low Jan 4 

*SUP 3: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2 

*SUP 4: $1299.9 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through above the 21-DMA ($1333.8) and rejection

ahead of the $1344.7-1351.3 region has taken its toll with a sell-off and dip

below the 55-DMA ($1317.7) that shifts focus to the 100-DMA. Bears need a close

below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to Dec lows ($1235.9) with below the

200-DMA ($1286.9) to confirm. Layers of resistance are building with bulls need

a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing room.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Looking A Little Heavy 

*RES 4: $66.39 - High Jan 25 

*RES 3: $64.96 - High Feb 5 

*RES 2: $64.24 - High Feb 26 

*RES 1: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27

*PRICE: $63.01 @ 2030GMT

*SUP 1: $62.72 - Low Feb 27 

*SUP 2: $62.12 - Hourly resistance Feb 22 now support 

*SUP 3: $60.76 - Low Feb 22 

*SUP 4: $60.57 - Hourly resistance Feb 15 now support

*COMMENTARY: Failure to better Monday's high and the hesitation ahead of $64.96

combined with O/B studies are a concern for bulls and leave the pair looking a

little heavy. The close below $63.06 eases bullish pressure with bears now

looking for a close below $60.57 to shift focus back to $57.90-58.52 where the

100-DMA ($58.52) is noted. Bulls now need a close above $64.96 to regain the

upper hand and target $66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]