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Free AccessMNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis
5 March 2018
By Kyle Shortland
Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -
http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc
AUSSIE TECHS: Bears Now Need Close Below $0.7694
*RES 4: $0.7872 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: $0.7841 - 21-DMA
*RES 2: $0.7819 - High Feb 28
*RES 1: $0.7785 - 200-DMA
*PRICE: $0.7767 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7710 - 2018 Low Mar 1
*SUP 2: $0.7694 - High Dec 15 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7622 - Low Dec 14
*SUP 4: $0.7580 - High Dec 12 now support
*COMMENTARY: Key supports crumbled following the close below the 200-DMA but
follow through has been limited courtesy of the Bollinger band base ($0.7225).
Bears tentatively focus on $0.7500 Dec lows. In saying that, bulls look for a
close above $0.7819 to confirm breaks of 100 & 200-DMAs to ease bearish pressure
and above $0.7910 to initially target $0.7989. Bears now look for a close below
$0.7694 to add weight to their case.
KIWI TECHS: Above 21-DMA To Gain Breathing Room
*RES 4: $0.7345 - High Feb 26
*RES 3: $0.7318 - Hourly resistance Feb 26
*RES 2: $0.7291 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $0.7279 - High Mar 2
*PRICE: $0.7238 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $0.7176 - 200-DMA
*SUP 2: $0.7130 - High Jan 2 now support
*SUP 3: $0.7089 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $0.7043 - High Dec 26 now support
*COMMENTARY: A bullish key day reversal emerged after the bounce from ahead of
the 200-DMA. Bulls now look for a close above the 21-DMA to gain breathing room
and above $0.7385 to target $0.7438-0.7558 where 2018 & 2017 highs are situated.
Bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to hint at a move back to $0.6952 and
then $0.6779 2017 lows. The Bollinger base is noted at $0.7173 and is the key
concern for bears.
AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Overall Focus On NZ$1.0458-91 While MAs Cap
*RES 4: NZ$1.0879 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: NZ$1.0850 - 200-DMA
*RES 2: NZ$1.0831 - 55-WMA
*RES 1: NZ$1.0747 - Low Feb 27 now resistance
*PRICE: NZ$1.0719 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: NZ$1.0650 - 2018 Low Feb 22
*SUP 2: NZ$1.0588 - Low July 31
*SUP 3: NZ$1.0491 - Low July 13
*SUP 4: NZ$1.0458 - LT Rising TL off 2015 Low
*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 55-WMA and key DMAs resulted in an
aggressive sell-off and immediate focus back on 2018 lows. Bears look for a
close below this level to add weight to the case for a test of NZ$1.0458-91
where the LT rising TL off 2015 lows is noted. Bulls now need a close above
NZ$1.0747 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a move
targeting NZ$1.1072-1.1139.
AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Remain Focused On 2017 Low
*RES 4: Y84.89 - High Feb 14
*RES 3: Y84.23 - Low Feb 20 now resistance
*RES 2: Y83.80 - High Feb 28
*RES 1: Y83.26 - Low Feb 23 now resistance
*PRICE: Y82.02 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y81.86 - Bollinger band base
*SUP 2: Y81.56 - 2018 Low Mar 2
*SUP 3: Y81.47 - 2017 Low May 19
*SUP 4: Y80.24 - Low Nov 11 2016
*COMMENTARY: Bears take comfort in continued fresh 2018 & 8mth lows that have
fallen just short of Y81.47 2017 lows that have been bearish focus for the past
couple of weeks. A close below 2017 lows potentially targets Y76.80. Bulls still
need a close above Y83.26 to gain breathing room and above Y84.89 to target a
correction back to key DMAs clustered Y86.45-58. O/S daily studies remain the
key concern for bears.
EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Focus Shifts To A$1.6250
*RES 4: A$1.6250 - 2016 High Feb 11
*RES 3: A$1.5968 - High Feb 12 2016
*RES 2: A$1.5956 - Weekly Bollinger band top
*RES 1: A$1.5919 - 2018 High Mar 2
*PRICE: A$1.5872 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: A$1.5817 - High Mar 1 now support
*SUP 2: A$1.5697 - Low Mar 1
*SUP 3: A$1.5598 - Low Feb 20
*SUP 4: A$1.5546 - Low Feb 2
*COMMENTARY: Sideways trading within a A$1.5598-1.5816 range has come to an end
with a break higher to fresh 2018 and 2+year highs Friday. Bulls now shift focus
to A$1.6250 2016 highs with daily studies being well placed for gains. The
Bollinger top (A$1.5834) is the key concern for bulls. Bears now look for a
close below A$1.5817 to ease immediate bullish pressure and below A$1.5697 to
shift focus back to A$1.5598.
US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Rejected Around 55-DMA
*RES 4: 90.840 - 55-DMA
*RES 3: 90.567 - Hourly support Mar 1 now resistance
*RES 2: 90.420 - Hourly resistance Mar 1
*RES 1: 90.293 - High Mar 2
*PRICE: 89.935 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: 89.786 - 21-DMA
*SUP 2: 89.442 - High Feb 19 now support
*SUP 3: 88.960 - Low Feb 19
*SUP 4: 88.650 - Hourly support Feb 16
*COMMENTARY: The failure around the 55-DMA and ahead of the 91.011 resistance
left a bearish key day reversal in place with the close below 90.080 shifting
initial focus to 89.442. A close below this level then sees immediate focus back
to 2018 lows. Correcting O/B studies and the Bollinger top (90.825) remain
concerns for bulls who now need a close above 91.011 to initially pressure
91.751.
EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2372-1.2435 Resistance Region Key
*RES 4: $1.2604 Weekly Bear channel top
*RES 3: $1.2555 2018 High Feb 16
*RES 2: $1.2435 High Feb 19
*RES 1: $1.2372 Hourly resistance Feb 20
*PRICE: $1.2339 @ 2000GMT
*SUP 1: $1.2288 Hourly resistance Mar 2 now support
*SUP 2: $1.2251 Hourly support Mar 2
*SUP 3: $1.2223 Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support
*SUP 4: $1.2153 Low Mar 1
*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the dip below the 55-DMA ($1.2191) is
a concern for bears given modestly O/S daily studies and the Bollinger base at
$1.2164. The bounce hints at a correction back to $1.2372-1.2435 with a close
above needed to return initial focus to 2018 highs. The $1.2092 support remains
key. Bears need a close below to end bullish hopes and initially target
$1.1915-95 where the 100-DMA is located.
DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y106.54 Resistance Key Today
*RES 4: Y108.03 Low Feb 9 now resistance
*RES 3: Y107.39 21-DMA
*RES 2: Y107.19 High Mar 1
*RES 1: Y106.54 Low Feb 28 now resistance
*PRICE: Y105.63 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y105.22 2018 Low Mar 2
*SUP 2: Y105.04 Bollinger band base
*SUP 3: Y101.15 Monthly Low Nov 9 2016
*SUP 4: Y100.07 Monthly Lows Sept 22 & 27 2016
*COMMENTARY: Continued hesitation ahead of Y108.03-42 left the pair looking
heavy and has resulted in fresh 2018 7 15mth lows. Follow through has been a
little lacking but bears continue to focus on Y98.95-101.15. Resistance layers
are accumulating and weighing. Bulls need a close above Y106.54 to gain
breathing room. Above Y108.03 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and
hint at a correction to Y109.79-110.47 with above Y108.42 to confirm.
EURO-YEN TECHS: Finding Support Around 200-WMA
*RES 4: Y132.24 Hourly support Feb 21 now resistance
*RES 3: Y131.34 200-DMA
*RES 2: Y130.91 Low Feb 23 now resistance
*RES 1: Y130.78 High Mar 1
*PRICE: Y130.24 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: Y129.61 200-WMA
*SUP 2: Y129.34 Monthly Low Sept 6
*SUP 3: Y128.47 55-WMA
*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18
*COMMENTARY: Continued fresh 2018 & 6mth lows left the pair looking heavy last
week with overall focus shifting to Y125.80-127.54. Immediate focus is on 55 &
200-WMAs with the 200-WMA currently supporting. The Bollinger base is noted at
Y129.22 and remains unchallenged. Bulls still need a close above the 200-DMA to
gain breathing room and above Y132.24 to target a correction back to
Y133.05-134.17 where key DMAs are situated.
SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1330.0-1351.3 Resistance Key This Week
*RES 4: $1344.7 - Low Feb 16 now resistance
*RES 3: $1340.7 - High Feb 26
*RES 2: $1330.0 - Hourly support Feb 26 now resistance
*RES 1: $1323.9 - Hourly support Feb 27 now resistance
*PRICE: $1316.9 @ 2030GMT
*SUP 1: $1312.9 - Hourly resistance Mar 1 now support
*SUP 2: $1302.5 - Low Jan 2
*SUP 3: $1300.3 - 100-DMA
*SUP 4: $1287.2 - 200-DMA
*COMMENTARY: The bounce from ahead of the 100-DMA and a dip below the Bollinger
base ($1306.6) is a concern for bears and could signal the end of the correction
from $1361.8 Feb highs. Bulls still need a close above $1330.0 to gain breathing
room and above $1351.3 to shift focus back to $1367.3-1374.9 where 2016 highs
are noted. Bears need a close below the 100-DMA to hint at a move back to
$1235.9 Dec lows.
NYMEX WTI TECHS: (J18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA
*RES 4: $64.24 - High Feb 26
*RES 3: $63.58 - Hourly resistance Feb 27
*RES 2: $61.95 - 21-DMA
*RES 1: $61.83 - Hourly resistance Mar 1
*PRICE: $61.45 @ 0530GMT
*SUP 1: $60.13 - Low Mar 2
*SUP 2: $59.60 - Low Feb 15
*SUP 3: $59.20 - Daily Bull channel base
*SUP 4: $58.82 - 100-DMA
*COMMENTARY: Losses defined last week with bulls now needing a close above the
21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above $64.97 to return initial focus to
$66.39-65 where 2018 highs are noted. While the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused
on layers of support $57.90-59.60 where the 100-DMA ($58.82) and daily bull
channel base ($59.20) are situated. Correcting O/B studies add weight to the
bearish case.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.