MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

8 May 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7640 Resistance Now Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7632 - 21-DMA

*RES 3: $0.7620 - High Apr 24

*RES 2: $0.7590 - Hourly resistance Apr 25

*RES 1: $0.7560 - High May 4

*PRICE: $0.7520 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7470 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $0.7368 - Monthly Low June 1 2017 

*SUP 3: $0.7326 - Monthly Low May 9 2017 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears have so far failed to capitalise on fresh 2018 lows with

correcting O/S studies providing the impetus for a correction last week. Bulls

look for a close above $0.7640 this week to shift initial focus to

$0.7709-0.7842 where 55, 100 & 200-DMAs are found. While the 21-DMA caps bears

retain focus on $0.7326 June 2017 monthly lows. Bears look for a close below

$0.7470 to add to confidence.

     KIWI TECHS: Correcting O/S Studies Impacting

*RES 4: $0.7157 - High Apr 24 

*RES 3: $0.7132 - Hourly resistance Apr 24 

*RES 2: $0.7102 - Hourly support Apr 25 now resistance 

*RES 1: $0.7052 - High May 4

*PRICE: $0.7016 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6983 - 2018 Low May 2

*SUP 2: $0.6952 - Low Dec 20

*SUP 3: $0.6899 - Low Dec 12

*SUP 4: $0.6815 - Monthly Low Dec 1

*COMMENTARY: Correcting O/S studies appear to be impacting with bounces from

ahead of the 2018 low continuing. Bulls now need a close above $0.7052 to gain

breathing room and above $0.7102 to initially target a correction back to

$0.7157-0.7198 with the 200-DMA at $0.7160. Bears now look for a close below

$0.6983 to reconfirm immediate focus on $0.6952 and the close below needed to

initially target $0.6779 Nov lows.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: NZ$1.0804 - 55-WMA

*RES 3: NZ$1.0775 - 100-DMA

*RES 2: NZ$1.0772 - 21-WMA

*RES 1: NZ$1.0762 - High Mar 22

*PRICE: NZ$1.0710 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0663 - 55-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0601 - High Apr 17 now support

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0549 - Low Apr 16

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0486 - 2018 Low Apr 12

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support continuing to emerge on dips back

towards the 55-DMA. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to gain

breathing room and below NZ$1.0601 to shift focus back to NZ$1.0440-86 where

bull and bear channel bases & 2018 lows are noted. While the 55-DMA supports

bulls hold the advantage with focus currently on NZ$1.0762-1.0894 where key

DMAs, WMAs and the bear channel top are situated.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: 21-DMA Remains Key Resistance

*RES 4: Y83.59 - Hourly support Apr 18 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.15 - High Apr 20 

*RES 2: Y82.70 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: Y82.53 - High May 1

*PRICE: Y81.95 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.79 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 2: Y81.67 - Low May 4

*SUP 3: Y81.26 - Low Apr 4

*SUP 4: Y80.77 - Low Mar 28

*COMMENTARY: The 55-DMA (Y82.57) capped in previous weeks and pressure on Y82.37

has resulted in a close below Monday but follow through has been lacking. Bears

have so far failed to capitalise on Thursday's dip below Y81.90 with the

Bollinger base and modestly O/S daily studies impacting. Bulls still need a

close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to

Y83.94-84.06.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: A$1.6100 - Bollinger band top

*RES 3: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance, High Apr 30

*RES 2: A$1.5956 - 21-DMA

*RES 1: A$1.5907 - 55-DMA

*PRICE: A$1.5868 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5830 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: A$1.5771 - Monthly Low Apr 13 

*SUP 3: A$1.5713 - Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 Low 

*SUP 4: A$1.5700 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The sell-off that has defined May so far sees the pair flirting

with the bull channel base (A$1.5877) off 2018 lows and focus now on the

A$1.5619-1.5771 support region where the weekly bull channel base, 100-DMA and

21-WMA are noted. Daily studies have room to move before O/S is an issue. Bulls

now need a close above the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and above A$1.6056 to

target A$1.6140-92.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 200-DMA

*RES 4: 94.219 - Monthly High Dec 12 

*RES 3: 93.153 - 55-WMA 

*RES 2: 93.035 - Low Dec 5 now resistance 

*RES 1: 92.900 - 2018 High May 4

*PRICE: 92.760 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 92.223 - Low May 2

*SUP 2: 91.958 - 200-DMA

*SUP 3: 91.426 - Hourly support Apr 26

*SUP 4: 91.320 - Hourly resistance Apr 26 now support

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 200-DMA took its toll with an aggressive rally that

sees immediate focus on 93.035-219 where the 55-WMA is situated. O/B studies

correcting and daily momentum divergence remain the key concern for bulls. In

saying that, bears still need a close below the 200-DMA to gain breathing room

and below 91.426 to shift focus back to 90.297-852 where 21, 55 & 100-DMAs are

located.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: $1.2053 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1.2144 Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: $1.2053 Low Apr 27 now resistance

*RES 2: $1.2032 High May 2

*RES 1: $1.1941 Hourly resistance May 7

*PRICE: $1.1922 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1896 2018 Low May 7 

*SUP 2: $1.1828 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1.1815 Low Dec 22 

*SUP 4: $1.1716 Monthly Low Feb 12

*COMMENTARY: Closes below the 200-DMA resulted in fresh 2018 lows again Monday

although follow through is lacking, daily studies remain O/S and momentum

divergence exists. In saying that, bulls still need a close above $1.2053 to

gain breathing room and above $1.2144 to shift initial focus to key DMAs

$1.2232-71. While $1.2053 caps bears now focus on $1.1690-1.1716 where Dec lows

are situated.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y108.54 & Y109.54 Levels Key This Week

*RES 4: Y111.17 Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 3: Y110.48 55-WMA 

*RES 2: Y110.19 200-DMA 

*RES 1: Y109.54 Alternating daily support/resistance

*PRICE: Y109.07 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y108.95 Daily Bull channel base off 2018 lows 

*SUP 2: Y108.64 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y108.54 Hourly support Apr 23 

*SUP 4: Y108.27 Hourly resistance Apr 23 now support

*COMMENTARY: Hesitation ahead of the 200-DMA combined with daily studies

correcting from O/B is a concern for bulls and currently weighs. Bears continue

to look for a close below Y108.54 to break the channel base and shift initial

focus back to Y107.85 whereas below Y106.57 is needed to see bears targeting

2018 lows. Bulls still need a close above Y109.54 to gain breathing room and

above the 55-WMA to initially target Y111.48-98.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above Y130.66

*RES 4: Y132.54 High Apr 30

*RES 3: Y131.98 21-DMA

*RES 2: Y131.19 Hourly support May 3 now resistance

*RES 1: Y130.66 Hourly support May 4 now resistance

*PRICE: Y130.07 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.88 Low May 4 

*SUP 2: Y129.22 200-WMA 

*SUP 3: Y128.94 2018 Low Mar 23 

*SUP 4: Y127.54 Monthly Low Aug 18

*COMMENTARY: Losses defined for the pair last week with immediate bearish focus

now on 2018 lows. Bears look for a close below 2018 lows this week to initially

target the bear channel base around Y126.09. O/S daily studies are the key

concern for bears. Bulls now need a close above Y130.66 to gain breathing room

and hint at a correction back to Y131.98-54 where the 21 & 200-DMAs are located.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: $1332.6 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $1329.0 - 21-DMA 

*RES 3: $1326.6 - High Apr 16 

*RES 2: $1323.8 - 100-DMA 

*RES 1: $1318.9 - High May 7

*PRICE: $1317.3 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1301.5 - 2018 Low May 1 

*SUP 2: $1292.3 - 55-WMA 

*SUP 3: $1289.5 - High Dec 1 now support 

*SUP 4: $1277.8 - 100-WMA

*COMMENTARY: Recent 2018 & 5 month lows saw gold flirting with the 200-DMA

($1305.0) and bears now needing a close below 2018 lows to confirm traction

below and add weight to the case for a test of the 200-WMA ($1234.5) and Dec low

($1235.9). The $1332.6 resistance remains key this week. Bulls need a close

above this level to shift focus back to $1355.7-1366.1 where 2018 highs are

found.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (M18) Bollinger Top Limiting Follow Through

*RES 4: $73.25 - Low Nov 11 2014 now resistance 

*RES 3: $71.63 - Daily Bull channel top 

*RES 2: $70.84 - 2018 High May 7 

*RES 1: $70.48 - Bollinger band top

*PRICE: $70.00 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $69.51 - Low May 7 

*SUP 2: $68.12 - Low May 4 

*SUP 3: $67.64 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: $66.85 - Low May 1

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging on dips back towards the

21-DMA last week which provided the base for a rally to fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs.

Follow through has been lacking courtesy of the Bollinger band top which is a

concern with bulls currently focused on the daily bull channel top around $71.63

today. Bears now need a close below $69.51 to gain breathing room and hint at a

correction back towards $66.85-67.64 where the 21-DMA is located.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]