MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

12 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: Immediate Focus Back On 2018 Low

*RES 4: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 3: $0.7459 - Hourly support July 10 now resistance

*RES 2: $0.7415 - Hourly resistance July 11

*RES 1: $0.7399 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $0.7365 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7359 - Low July 5 

*SUP 2: $0.7319 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: The close below the 21-DMA reconfirms immediate focus on 2018 lows.

Bears look for a close below $0.7308 to shift focus to tests of $0.7142 2017

lows. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Layers of resistance

have followed the pair lower and add to bearish confidence. Bulls now need a

close above $0.7415 to gain breathing room and above the 55-DMA to hint at a

move back to $0.7602-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7602) & 200 ($0.7687) DMAs are located

with above $0.7552 confirming.

     KIWI TECHS: Pressuring $0.6741, Remains Offered

*RES 4: $0.6921 - High June 25 

*RES 3: $0.6882 - Alternating daily support/resistance 

*RES 2: $0.6834 - 21-DMA 

*RES 1: $0.6804 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $0.6756 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6741 - Low July 4

*SUP 2: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*SUP 3: $0.6674 - Monthly Low May 30 2016

*SUP 4: $0.6577 - Weekly Bear channel base

*COMMENTARY: The failure at the 21-DMA has resulted in a sharp sell-off and

focus back on the $0.6674-0.6741 region where 2018 lows are situated. Bears now

look for a close at fresh 2018 lows to shift focus to the weekly bear channel

base coming in around $0.6577 today. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh

leg lower. Bulls now need a close above $0.6804 to gain breathing room and above

$0.6882 to shift initial focus to $0.6921 where the 55-DMA is situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: Bears Need Close Below NZ$1.0830

*RES 4: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 3: NZ$1.0957 - Hourly support July 3 now resistance

*RES 2: NZ$1.0926 - High July 4

*RES 1: NZ$1.0934 - High July 9

*PRICE: NZ$1.0898 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0862 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0830 - Hourly support June 28

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*COMMENTARY: O/B daily studies and the Bollinger top (NZ$1.0997) impacted with a

lack of follow through on last week's 5mth highs. Bulls take comfort in bounces

from around the 200-DMA but continue to look for a close above NZ$1.1006 to

reconfirm a bullish bias and initially targeting 2018 highs. Initial support is

noted at the 200-DMA but bears need a close below NZ$1.0830 to confirm a break

below the 200-DMA, easing bullish pressure and returning focus to

NZ$1.0775-1.0825 where 21 & 55-DMAs are located.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y81.59

*RES 4: Y84.53 - High June 7

*RES 3: Y84.19 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: Y83.63 - High June 14 

*RES 1: Y83.16 - High July 10

*PRICE: Y82.51 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y82.07 - Low July 11

*SUP 2: Y81.83 - 21-DMA

*SUP 3: Y81.59 - Low July 6

*SUP 4: Y81.26 - Low July 5

*COMMENTARY: Bulls take comfort in support emerging ahead of the 21-DMA

Wednesday. The Y81.59 support remains key this week. Bears now need a close

below this level to shift focus back to Y80.24-63. Bulls retain an advantage

while Y81.59 supports but now look for a close above Y83.16 to add support to

their case for a test of the Y84.51-89 region where the 200-DMA (Y84.64) is

noted. Daily studies at O/B levels are the key concern for bulls.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above A$1.5887

*RES 4: A$1.6056 - Hourly support Apr 26 now resistance

*RES 3: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 2: A$1.5911 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5887 - High July 3

*PRICE: A$1.5838 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5806 - Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: A$1.5783 - 100-DMA 

*SUP 3: A$1.5738 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5679 - 55-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Daily momentum divergence and O/B daily studies impacted last week

with the pair remaining capped at A$1.5887 with a close above A$1.5967 needed to

confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly highs are noted.

Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. Bulls take comfort in the bounce

from ahead of the 55-DMA that sees pressure return to A$1.5887-1.5967. Bears

look for a close below the 55-DMA to focus on A$1.5541-85 where the 200-DMA is

located.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: Bears Need Close Below 55-DMA

*RES 4: 96.617 - High June 28 2017 

*RES 3: 95.524 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.463 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: 95.141 - High July 2

*PRICE: 94.723 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: 94.486 - High July 6 now support

*SUP 2: 94.018 - Low July 10

*SUP 3: 93.806 - 55-DMA

*SUP 4: 93.193 - Low June 14

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 12mth highs lacked follow through last week with

hesitation around the 100-WMA continuing. Bulls take comfort in the bounce from

the 55-DMA but continue to look for a close above the 100-WMA (95.524) to target

96.617. Bears now look for a close below 94.486 to gain breathing room and below

the 55-DMA to confirm initial focus on 92.837-93.193 and hint at a move back to

100 (92.083) & 200 (92.255) DMAs.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Focus Returns To $1.1506-89

*RES 4: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 3: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 2: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*RES 1: $1.1688 Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1.1672 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1647 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $1.1627 Low July 4 

*SUP 3: $1.1589 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The lack of follow through on the break of the 55-DMA was less than

ideal for bulls and now sees pressure on the 21-DMA as it remains offered. Bears

now shift focus back to the $1.1506-89 support region with below the 21-DMA to

add weight to their case. Bulls now need a close above $1.1790 to confirm

traction above the 55-DMA and above the 55-WMA ($1.1922) to shift initial focus

to $1.1984-1.2053 where 100 ($1.2001) & 200 ($1.1984) DMAs are found.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Y111.39 Support Key Today

*RES 4: Y113.38 2018 High Jan 8 

*RES 3: Y113.24 200-WMA 

*RES 2: Y112.87 Low Jan 8 now resistance 

*RES 1: Y112.17 High July 11

*PRICE: Y111.98 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y111.39 Monthly High May 21 now support 

*SUP 2: Y110.75 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 3: Y110.58 21-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y110.12 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Support around the 21 & 200-DMAs has provided the base for fresh

7mth highs with initial bullish focus now shifting to the Y113.24-75 region

where 2018 & Dec highs are located. Daily studies approaching O/B are the key

concern for bulls. Bears now need a close below Y111.39 to ease bullish pressure

and below Y109.95 to confirm breaks of 21, 55 & 200-DMAs and hint at a move back

to Y108.50-109.01 where the 100-DMA is located.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Y129.83 Support Now Key

*RES 4: Y131.93 200-DMA

*RES 3: Y131.48 55-WMA

*RES 2: Y131.37 High May 14

*RES 1: Y130.95 High July 11

*PRICE: Y130.77 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y130.35 Hourly support July 11 

*SUP 2: Y129.83 Hourly support July 9 

*SUP 3: Y129.30 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: Y129.09 Hourly support July 5

*COMMENTARY: Pressure returning to layers of resistance took its toll with the

pair breaking above the 100-DMA (Y130.24) and Y130.34 resistance. Bulls take

comfort as the pair gains topside traction and focus on Y131.37-93 where the

55-WMA and 200-DMA are located. Daily studies at O/B levels are the key concern

for bulls. Bears now look for a close below Y129.83 to ease bullish pressure and

below the 55-DMA to shift immediate pressure back to Y128.40.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Pressuring LT Rising TL Off 2015 Low

*RES 4: $1272.6 - 100-WMA 

*RES 3: $1263.2 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1260.2 - High July 10 

*RES 1: $1246.8 - Low July 10 now resistance

*PRICE: $1241.8 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1241.2 - LT Rising TL off 2015 low 

*SUP 2: $1237.3 - 2018 Low July 3 

*SUP 3: $1235.9 - Monthly low Dec 12 

*SUP 4: $1227.1 - High July 7 2017 now support

*COMMENTARY: The topside failure ahead of the 21-DMA left the pair looking

offered and bears have not been disappointed with pressure returning to the LT

rising TL off 2015 lows and the 200-WMA. Bears look for a close below the

200-WMA to confirm breaks of key supports and initially target $1204.5. Daily

studies are well placed for a fresh leg lower. Bulls still need a close above

the 21-DMA to ease bearish pressure and to return initial focus to $1272.6 where

the 100-WMA is noted and above the 100-WMA to target $1284.0-1292.1.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (Q18) Below 55-DMA To Target $64.76-66.22

*RES 4: $74.90 - High July 4 

*RES 3: $74.04 - Hourly resistance July 11 

*RES 2: $72.14 - Low July 6 now resistance 

*RES 1: $71.19 - Hourly resistance July 11

*PRICE: $70.61 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $69.86 - 21-DMA 

*SUP 2: $69.04 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 3: $67.78 - Hourly resistance June 27 now support 

*SUP 4: $66.22 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Fresh 2018 & 3+yr highs last week remained capped ahead of daily

and weekly bull channel tops. Correcting very O/B daily studies are now

impacting with a sharp sell-off that sees pressure back on 21 & 55-DMAs. Bears

now need a close below the 55-DMA to shift focus back to $64.76-66.22 where the

100-DMA and a bull channel base are situated. Bulls now look for a close above

$72.14 to ease bearish pressure and shift focus back to $74.90-75.27.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]