MNI Asian Morning FX Technical Analysis

27 July 2018

By Kyle Shortland

Click below for today's MNI FX Technical Analysis Report -

http://tinyurl.com/h8lzqnc

AUSSIE TECHS: $0.7484 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: $0.7527 - Low June 13 now resistance

*RES 3: $0.7484 - High July 10

*RES 2: $0.7470 - 55-DMA

*RES 1: $0.7393 - Hourly resistance July 26

*PRICE: $0.7379 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.7357 - Low July 24 

*SUP 2: $0.7336 - Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $0.7308 - 2018 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: $0.7265 - Low Jan 5 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in the failure to make fresh 2018 lows and the

bounce to end last week that returned pressure to the $0.7442-84 resistance

region. Bulls still need a close above $0.7484 to confirm a break of the 55-DMA

($0.7470) and hint at a move back to $0.7552-0.7735 where 100 ($0.7558) & 200

($0.7664) DMAs are located with above $0.7552 confirming. While $0.7484 caps

bears retain initial focus on retests of 2018 lows.

     KIWI TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $0.6858

*RES 4: $0.6877 - 55-DMA 

*RES 3: $0.6858 - High July 9 

*RES 2: $0.6848 - Bollinger band top 

*RES 1: $0.6795 - Hourly resistance July 26

*PRICE: $0.6780 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $0.6766 - Low July 24

*SUP 2: $0.6720 - Bollinger band base

*SUP 3: $0.6711 - Low July 13

*SUP 4: $0.6686 - 2018 Low July 3

*COMMENTARY: The $0.6858-0.6921 resistance region where the 55-DMA ($0.6877) is

located remains key. Bulls now need a close above $0.6858 to gain breathing room

and above $0.6921 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA and hint at a move back

to $0.7026-60 where 100 & 200-DMAs are situated.

     AUSSIE-KIWI TECHS: NZ$1.0853 Support Key

*RES 4: NZ$1.1006 - Low Jan 30 now resistance

*RES 3: NZ$1.0992 - High July 3

*RES 2: NZ$1.0974 - High July 16

*RES 1: NZ$1.0945 - High July 19

*PRICE: NZ$1.0872 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: NZ$1.0855 - 200-DMA

*SUP 2: NZ$1.0853 - Low July 6

*SUP 3: NZ$1.0775 - Low June 27

*SUP 4: NZ$1.0764 - 100-DMA

*COMMENTARY: Failure to trouble the key NZ$1.1006 resistance continues to result

in dips back to NZ$1.0853-57 where 55 & 200-DMAs are situated. Bears now need a

close below NZ$1.0853 to confirm traction below the 55 & 200-DMAs, ending

bullish hopes and shift initial focus back to NZ$1.0775. Initial resistance

remains at NZ$1.0945 with bulls needing a close above to gain breathing room. A

close above NZ$1.1006 remains needed to reconfirm a bullish bias and initially

targeting 2018 highs.

     AUSSIE-YEN TECHS: Y83.00 Resistance Remains Key

*RES 4: Y83.38 - Hourly support July 19 now resistance 

*RES 3: Y83.00 - High July 20 

*RES 2: Y82.49 - Hourly resistance July 26a 

*RES 1: Y82.17 - Hourly resistance July 26

*PRICE: Y82.06 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y81.81 - Low July 24

*SUP 2: Y81.59 - Low July 6

*SUP 3: Y80.99 - Low July 2

*SUP 4: Y80.63 - Low June 19

*COMMENTARY: The Y83.00 resistance continues to confirm significance with

another topside failure ahead of this level leaving the pair looking offered and

pressure back on Y81.59-81. Bears need a close below Y81.59 to confirm a return

in focus to Y80.24-63. Bulls continue to look for a close above Y83.00 to gain

breathing room and above Y83.92 to return focus to Y84.40-89 where the 200-DMA

is situated.

     EURO-AUSSIE TECHS: Topside Follow Through Lacking

*RES 4: A$1.5967 - High May 9

*RES 3: A$1.5889 - High July 20

*RES 2: A$1.5858 - Bollinger band top

*RES 1: A$1.5818 - Hourly support July 24 now resistance

*PRICE: A$1.5766 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: A$1.5705 - Low July 25 

*SUP 2: A$1.5654 - Low July 19 

*SUP 3: A$1.5649 - 55-DMA 

*SUP 4: A$1.5627 - 200-DMA

*COMMENTARY: The A$1.5889-1.5967 resistance region remains key this week. Bulls

need a close above A$1.5889 to reconfirm the bullish bias with a close above

A$1.5967 then needed to confirm focus on A$1.6056-1.6140 where 2018 & monthly

highs are noted. Correcting O/B studies have recently weighed. The 200-DMA is

now key support. Bears need a close below the 200-DMA to end bullish hopes and

hint at a move back to 2018 lows with below A$1.5541 to add weight to their

case.

     US DOLLAR-INDEX TECHS: 94.933 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 96.652 - 2018 High July 19 

*RES 3: 95.516 - 100-WMA 

*RES 2: 95.280 - High July 20 

*RES 1: 94.933 - Low July 19 now resistance

*PRICE: 94.765 @ 0430GMT

*SUP 1: 94.583 - Hourly support July 26

*SUP 2: 94.396 - Hourly resistance July 25 now support

*SUP 3: 94.084 - Low July 26

*SUP 4: 93.713 - Low July 9

*COMMENTARY: Pressure on the 55-DMA (94.272) has failed to produce a close below

with bulls taking comfort in the bounce Thursday. Bulls continue to look for a

close above 94.933 to gain breathing room and above the 100-WMA (95.521) to

target 96.617. Bears now need a close below 94.084 to confirm a break of the

55-DMA and hint at a move back to 92.837-93.193 with below 97.713 to confirm.

     EURO-DOLLAR TECHS: Topside Hesitation Takes Its Toll

*RES 4: $1.1854 High May 16

*RES 3: $1.1820 High June 11

*RES 2: $1.1790 High July 9

*RES 1: $1.1765 Hourly resistance July 9

*PRICE: $1.1641 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1.1625 Hourly support July 20 

*SUP 2: $1.1610 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: $1.1572 Weekly Bull channel base off 2017 low 

*SUP 4: $1.1506 2018 Low May 29

*COMMENTARY: The $1.1765 resistance remains key with it capping again Thursday.

Bulls need a close above $1.1765 to confirm traction above the 55-DMA ($1.1691),

easing of bearish pressure, and shifting initial focus to $1.1854. Key MAs are

noted $1.1932-1.1977 with bulls needing a close above $1.1996 to confirm breaks

and initially target $1.2153. Bears now need a close below $1.1572 to add weight

to the case for a retest of 2018 lows.

     DOLLAR-YEN TECHS: Bears Need Close Below Y109.95

*RES 4: Y113.26 200-WMA 

*RES 3: Y112.69 Low July 18 now resistance 

*RES 2: Y111.90 Hourly resistance July 20 

*RES 1: Y111.54 High July 23

*PRICE: Y111.22 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y110.55 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y110.08 200-DMA 

*SUP 3: Y109.95 Low June 28 

*SUP 4: Y109.35 Low June 25

*COMMENTARY: The break below the 21-DMA (Y111.43) and daily bull channel base

off 2018 lows continues to lack follow through with the pair again bouncing from

ahead of the 55-DMA. Bears now need a close below Y109.95 to confirm breaks of

55 & 200-DMAs and pressure Y108.96-109.37 where the 100-DMA is noted. Bulls look

for a close above Y111.54 to gain breathing room and above Y111.90 to return

focus to Y113.26 where the 200-WMA is found.

     EURO-YEN TECHS: Pressure Remains On 55-DMA

*RES 4: Y131.20 High July 20

*RES 3: Y130.46 Hourly resistance July 23

*RES 2: Y130.01 Hourly resistance July 26a

*RES 1: Y129.65 Hourly resistance July 26

*PRICE: Y129.50 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: Y129.26 55-DMA 

*SUP 2: Y128.45 Bollinger band base 

*SUP 3: Y128.40 Low July 2 

*SUP 4: Y127.95 Hourly resistance June 29 now support

*COMMENTARY: The pair failed to gain traction above the 55-WMA (Y131.54) last

week. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 200-DMA to confirm a break of

the 55-WMA and target Y133.48-135.58 where the LT TL off 2014 highs is noted.

The break of Y129.83 has so far lacked follow through with bears now needing a

close below the 55-DMA to shift immediate focus back to Y128.40. Bulls now need

a close above Y130.46 to gain breathing room and above Y131.20 to shift focus

back to the 200-DMA.

     SPOT GOLD TECHS: Bulls Need Close Above $1236.6

*RES 4: $1248.6 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $1240.7 - 21-DMA 

*RES 2: $1236.6 - Low July 13 now resistance 

*RES 1: $1234.0 - 200-WMA

*PRICE: $1222.3 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $1217.8 - Low July 24 

*SUP 2: $1211.1 - 2018 Low July 19 

*SUP 3: $1204.6 - Monthly low July 10 2017 

*SUP 4: $1194.5 - Monthly Low Mar 10 2017

*COMMENTARY: Bears took comfort in the topside failure around the 200-WMA to

start the new week although failure to trouble 2018 lows is less than ideal with

daily studies correcting from O/S. Bulls still need a close above $1236.6 to

gain breathing room and above $1260.2 to return initial focus to $1270.5-1272.6

where the 100-WMA is noted. Bears initially remain focused on $1204.6 while

$1236.6 caps.

     NYMEX WTI TECHS: (U18) Bulls Need Close Above 21-DMA

*RES 4: $72.08 - Low July 10 now resistance 

*RES 3: $71.13 - Low July 9 now resistance 

*RES 2: $70.60 - High July 13 

*RES 1: $69.88 - 21-DMA

*PRICE: $69.54 @ 2130GMT

*SUP 1: $69.45 - Hourly support July 26 

*SUP 2: $68.92 - Low July 26 

*SUP 3: $68.20 - Low July 25 

*SUP 4: $67.52 - Hourly support July 19

*COMMENTARY: Bulls took comfort in support emerging ahead of the 100-DMA and the

$65.89 support. Bulls still need a close above the 21-DMA to shift initial focus

back to $70.60-71.13. Daily studies correcting from O/S add support to the

bullish case. In saying that, while the 21-DMA caps bears remain focused on the

$65.89-66.30 supports with a close below $68.92 needed to buy bears breathing

room.

--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +44 207-862-7435; email: kyle.shortland@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]