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MNI Bank Of Thailand-Oct 2024: On Hold But Could Turn Dovish

We expect the Bank of Thailand to keep rates unchanged at 2.5% at its October meeting .
Asia Bank - PreviewBank of Thailand - PreviewAPACAnalysisEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewGlobalStoryRegionThailand

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • We expect the Bank of Thailand to keep rates unchanged at 2.5% at its October meeting as policy isn’t restrictive and reducing the household debt ratio remains a key goal. 5 out of the 28 Bloomberg analysts are forecasting a 25bp rate cut. 
  • There is a material chance that BoT turns dovish with forecast changes and more votes for easing. If this occurs, then a 25bp rate cut at the December 18 meeting is possible.
  • In the August statement, BoT sounded more concerned and was going to monitor financial conditions, “macroeconomic and financial developments, as well as the interlinkages between them”, as well as downside risks to consumption and private investment. While tourist arrivals remain robust, private consumption is weak and consumer confidence has deteriorated. Also, the digital wallet scheme no longer includes all adult Thais.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: BoT Preview - October 2024.pdf

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

  • We expect the Bank of Thailand to keep rates unchanged at 2.5% at its October meeting as policy isn’t restrictive and reducing the household debt ratio remains a key goal. 5 out of the 28 Bloomberg analysts are forecasting a 25bp rate cut. 
  • There is a material chance that BoT turns dovish with forecast changes and more votes for easing. If this occurs, then a 25bp rate cut at the December 18 meeting is possible.
  • In the August statement, BoT sounded more concerned and was going to monitor financial conditions, “macroeconomic and financial developments, as well as the interlinkages between them”, as well as downside risks to consumption and private investment. While tourist arrivals remain robust, private consumption is weak and consumer confidence has deteriorated. Also, the digital wallet scheme no longer includes all adult Thais.

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: BoT Preview - October 2024.pdf