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MNI Bank Of Thailand Preview - January 2023: Gradual Normalisation To Continue

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is widely expected to hike rates 25bp to 1.5% at its January 25 meeting bringing the cumulative tightening this cycle to 100bp, well below most other Asian central banks.
  • The January move is likely to be driven by inflation rising further in December and remaining above the upper end of the 1-3% target band, significantly negative real rates and the growth and tourism recovery. It will also stabilise the rate differential with the US, assuming the Fed hikes 25bp on February 1, thus supporting the THB. These reasons are likely to result in a further hike at the March BoT meeting.
  • Expected tourist arrivals have been revised up sharply following the reopening of China and the resultant increase in consumption poses an upside risk to Thai inflation.

For the full piece, see here.

BoT Preview - January 2023.pdf

Asia Bank - PreviewBank of Thailand - PreviewHomepageEM Central Bank ReportsEM Central Bank PreviewEmerging Market News

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