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MNI Bank Of Thailand Preview - November 2023: Prolonged Hold, Watching Demand

THAILAND
  • The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is likely to leave rates at 2.5% at its November meeting, a view that is unanimously held by Bloomberg consensus. This is a level that the central bank sees as in line with neutral and “appropriate for supporting long-term sustainable growth”.
  • We believe that BoT is likely to keep its options open given significant uncertainties. But the stronger THB means that the BoT doesn't need to hike rates to defend the currency at this stage.
  • For now, it seems there will be a prolonged pause as there is little pressure to move policy in either direction, as It is still too early to discuss an easing of monetary policy as the BoT expects growth to improve in 2024 and for inflation to rise as a result. It is forecasting a pickup in 2024 CPI inflation to 2.6%.
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