Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MNI Banxico Preview - March 2024
Executive Summary
- Most analysts are expecting Banxico to cut the overnight rate by 25bps to 11.00%.
- Declining inflation, the high level of the real ex-ante policy rate and the ongoing resilience of the Mexican peso all suggest conditions have been met to ease the monetary policy stance this week.
- However, the cautious rhetoric from committee members and the prolonged pause from the Fed, highlight that the decision is by no means set in stone and increases the likelihood of a split decision.
- Furthermore, the committee’s prior commentary suggesting that an initial rate cut should not signal action at consecutive meetings places large significance on the details within the policy statement regarding both forward guidance and the balance of risks for inflation.
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MNI Banxico Preview - March 2024.pdf
Cautious Committee Members Raise Probability Of Dissenting Vote/Opinion
Following the presentation of the Banxico’s quarterly economic update for the fourth quarter in 2023, some board members continued to highlight concerns about the potential resurgence of inflation. Deputies Jonathan Heath and Irene Espinosa spoke about risks and emphasized the importance of basing decisions on available data. Heath warned it would be “a huge mistake to start easing the policy rate prematurely, long before it's clear whether we can truly win the battle". Furthermore, Heath highlighted the risk of declaring victory and cutting interest rates early, while noting the committees desire to not make this mistake. Heath added that any reduction in borrowing costs, "in March or May", should exclusively be related to adjusting the real level of rates.
Ongoing MXN Resilience Should Provide Comfort To Initiate Easing
Analysts continue to highlight the ongoing resilience of the Mexican peso as adding to the Banxico committee’s comfort in adjusting the monetary policy stance. USDMXN recently came within close proximity of the 2023 lows and overall technical conditions remain bearish. The latest recovery this week is considered corrective and the break of key support at 16.7852, the Jan 8 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, which opens 16.6262, the Jul 28 2023 low. A break of this level would open 16.4218, the 1.236 projection of the Dec 5 - Jan 8 - Jan 17 price swing. On the upside, a clear reversal higher would refocus attention on 17.3860, the Jan 17 high and a bull trigger. Initial resistance is at 17.0100, the 50-day EMA.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.