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MNI BOC Preview, Mar'24: A Stepping Stone To April Guidance Shift?

The Bank of Canada isn't expected to meaningfully change guidance this meeting, with greater attention on its latest assessment of underlying inflation trends

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The BoC is unanimously expected to hold its policy rate at 5% for a fifth meeting running.
  • The median analyst recently saw a first cut in June whilst OIS has a cumulative 20bp priced for June with a July move fully priced instead.
  • Guidance is expected to be little changed ahead of a potentially more impactful April meeting just five weeks away, and we instead focus on the latest discussion on underlying inflation. Data will no doubt continue to set the tone.
  • Plans to discuss slowing the pace of QT are expected to get short thrift at this meeting’s communications, with Dep Gov Gravelle’s speech on March 21 more closely watched.
  • A reminder that the new format for BoC decisions sees announcements 15mins earlier at 0945ET with every decision now followed by a press conference at 1030ET. The simultaneous publication of the rate decision and press conference opening statements should again be watched, after January saw the main change to guidance shifted to the latter.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

BOCPreviewMar2024.pdf


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The BoC is unanimously expected to hold its policy rate at 5% for a fifth meeting running.
  • The median analyst recently saw a first cut in June whilst OIS has a cumulative 20bp priced for June with a July move fully priced instead.
  • Guidance is expected to be little changed ahead of a potentially more impactful April meeting just five weeks away, and we instead focus on the latest discussion on underlying inflation. Data will no doubt continue to set the tone.
  • Plans to discuss slowing the pace of QT are expected to get short thrift at this meeting’s communications, with Dep Gov Gravelle’s speech on March 21 more closely watched.
  • A reminder that the new format for BoC decisions sees announcements 15mins earlier at 0945ET with every decision now followed by a press conference at 1030ET. The simultaneous publication of the rate decision and press conference opening statements should again be watched, after January saw the main change to guidance shifted to the latter.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

BOCPreviewMar2024.pdf