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MNI BOE Preview - Aug 2021: Sequencing guidance could be key

The August MPC meeting has the potential to be a key event for the market, despite no changes expected to immediate policy.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The August MPC meeting has the potential to be a key event for the market, despite no changes expected to immediate policy.
  • From a market perspective, however, whether there is a 7-1 vote or a 6-2 vote probably makes little difference. However, if the vote was 5-3, there would be another member of the MPC who had unexpectedly moved into the hawkish camp and we would expect there to be a market reaction.
  • The sequencing review will potentially be much more significant. The MNI Markets team thinks the most likely change to the sequencing guidance will be to remove the Bank Rate threshold altogether, and leave maximum flexibility to the MPC.
  • We discuss the market implications in the full document.
Click below for the full document:

MNI BoE Preview - Aug21.pdf