MNI: BOJ Tankan To Show Steady Sentiment, Solid Capex Plans

The Bank of Japan's December Tankan quarterly survey due next week will show a slight improvement to business sentiment among smaller and major firms, and while capital investment plans are expected to fall, they remain solid compared to recent weak implementation, economists told MNI.

The diffusion index (DI) for sentiment among major manufacturers will likely rise to +10 in December from +9 in September, according to the economists. A positive figure indicates the majority of firms see better business conditions.

The median DI for major non-manufacturers should print unchanged at +27 in December, while economists expect the sentiment index for small manufacturers to rise to -4 from -5. The sentiment for small non-manufacturers will likely remain unchanged at +12, they noted.

BOJ officials are focused on how rising inflation expectations held by businesses have evolved alongside import-price falls and weak private consumption. The bank's forecasts on price- and wage-settings – key to policy adjustment in 2024 – will strengthen should corporate inflation expectations remain firm and support the view that Japan's traditional deflationary norm is changing. (See MNI POLICY: Economic Concerns Weigh On BOJ's April Exit Plan)

CAPEX PLANS REVISED

The Tankan will show major firms expect to increase capex plans this fiscal year 12.4%, slightly down from September's 13.6%.

The BOJ will focus on whether the revised capex will not fall significantly from the historical average – a small downward capex revision this time of year is typical.

The second preliminary GDP data on Friday showed capex fell 0.4% q/q on a real basis, revised from a 0.6% drop, while its negative contribution remained at -0.1 pp. BOJ officials understand a gap exists between capex plans on a nominal basis and implementation on a real basis. They believe, however, appetite remains solid and unlikely to suffer a short-term fall.

Economists expect small-firm capex plans to rise 9.9%, revised from 8.0% in the September Tankan and in line with typical upward revisions.

The BOJ will release its Tankan results at 0850 JST on December 13, Wednesday (2350 GMT on Dec. 12, Tuesday).