MNI BRIEF: BOJ May Delay Timing of CPI Fall Below 2%

The Bank of Japan board may consider delaying the timing of their expectation that the core consumer index will fall below 2% from about the middle of this fiscal year to toward the end following stronger price moves, MNI understands.

Policymakers may also change their forecasts on the strength of the fall, with expectations it could be smaller and core CPI may not fall much below 2%. A stronger price view, however, will not drive policy adjustment immediately as confidence on the strength of the price-wage cycle remains low due to uncertainty over wage hikes next year.

The policymakers will examine economic developments and their outlook at the June 15-16 policy-setting meeting, but will refrain from releasing revised numerical prices, which will be available in the July Outlook Report. The board members and bank officials will not be able to determine May's nationwide consumer price index at the June meeting as this data publishes June 23.

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda previously said the y/y rise in core CPI could fall below 2% toward the middle of this fiscal year (see: MNI BRIEF: Inflation View 2% If Target Achieved - BOJ's Ueda).