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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: EZ Fiscal Boost Could Beat Japanification - Study
A common euro area fiscal policy could prevent low inflation traps associated with 'Japanification' from taking hold even after monetary policy has run out of room to cut interest rates, a research paper published by the European Central Bank argues.
Low-inflation traps occur when actual and expected inflation are consistently below the central bank's target just as as nominal interest rates are close to or at their lower bound. They can become self-fulfilling when the private sector believes inflation will stay low in future.
National governments can beat the trap if they signal their willingness to increase spending by whatever amount is needed to more than offset the effects of a possible drop in private sector confidence, author Sebastian Schmidt argues. "Preventing self-fulfilling low-inflation traps could be another reason to create a central fiscal capacity in Europe," he concludes.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.