MNI BRIEF: Japan Q2 GDP To Be Revised Down On Weaker Capex

Japan's economy over Q2 likely grew at a slower pace than initially forecasted as capital investment is expected to be revised down from initial estimates, economists predicted following a key government survey.

The median forecast by six economists for revised Q2 GDP was 1.3% q/q, or an annualised 5.5%, compared with the preliminary estimate of 1.5% q/q, or an annualised 6.0%.

The Cabinet Office will release revised GDP data for the April-June quarter at 0850 JST on Friday, Sept 8 (2350 GMT on Thursday, September 7). Combined capital investment by non-financial Japanese companies excluding software fell 1.6% q/q in Q2 2023, decelerating from 2.8% in Q1, a quarterly revised survey released by the Ministry of Finance Friday showed.

Economists expect capital investment to be revised down to -0.7% q/q from the initial reading of 0.0%, with forecasts ranging from -0.3% to -1.0% based on the MOF’s survey. Economists forecast private consumption to be unrevised at -0.5% q/q, while public investment will likely be revised down to 0.3% q/q in Q2 from +1.2% in Q1. The contribution of private-sector inventories to the total domestic output is forecast to be unrevised at -0.2 pp.