MNI BRIEF: NY Fed Price Expectations Increase Across Horizons
U.S. inflation expectations rose across the board in October, according to the New York Fed's October survey of consumers, which showed short, medium, and longer term readings all showing gains.
Median inflation expectations for the year-ahead increased 0.5ppt to 5.9%, the three-year-ahead increased 0.2ppt to 3.1%, and the five-year-ahead edged up 0.2ppt to 2.4%, the New York Fed said. Expectations about year-ahead food prices rose by 0.7ppt to 7.6%, while the median expected change in gas prices rose by 4.3ppts to 4.8%—the largest one-month increase on record.
As household income growth expectations increased to a new series high, views about the labor market soured in October, the NY Fed survey showed, as expectations the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now increased to 42.9%, the highest reading since April2020, from 39.1% in September. The University of Michigan's preliminary November Survey of Consumers report released Friday also showed an increase in inflation expectations and consumers increasingly expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead.
Source: New York Fed