MNI BRIEF: UK Inflation Shock Unlikely A Directional Shift-ONS

The overall directional trend for UK inflation remains lower, despite the upward surprise to both core and headline numbers in February, a spokesperson for the Office for National Statistics told MNI Wednesday.

Overall, there is no shift in expectations and from April onwards, base effects will mechanically push prices lower, all things being equal, an ONS spokesperson said. While not a forecast, the spokesperson said not to make too much of a single month's data.

The weighting basket for CPI calculations changed in February, but the ONS was clear there could be no assumption in either direction that the amendments had impacted the index level.

Earlier Wednesday, the ONS reported headline inflation rose to 10.4% from 10.1% in January, above expectations of a decline to 9.9%. (See MNI BOE WATCH: Financial Conditions Add To Case For No Change)