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MNI BRIEF: UK OBR Forecasts In November, BOE Watching Events
The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility has been asked to publish updated fiscal forecasts on Nov 23 alongside Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng's Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, the Treasury said Monday, at the end of another day of mayhem for the pound and gilts.
The lack of official costings was a factor unnerving markets after last Friday’s announcement of large tax cuts, which the OBR had not been asked to assess. In a statement, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey welcomed the government’s “commitment … to the role of the Office for Budget Responsibility” and said it was "monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of financial assets."
But, despite speculation of an emergency rate hike, the governor gave no indication of an early move in rates, as anticipated by MNI. (See MNI INSIGHT: Emergency Hike Out Of Character For BOE)
"As the MPC has made clear, it will make a full assessment at its next scheduled meeting of the impact on demand and inflation from the Government’s announcements, and the fall in sterling, and act accordingly,” Bailey said.
A further round of OBR forecasts will be published in the Spring, alongside a full Budget statement, the Treasury added. According to the government, the Fiscal Plan will "set out further details on the government’s fiscal rules, including ensuring that debt falls as a share of GDP in the medium term." monitoring developments in financial markets very closely in light of the significant repricing of financial assets.
Sterling vs U.S. dollar over last three trading days
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.