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Free AccessThe total PCE price index and core PCE price index -- a pair closely watched by Fed officials -- should both tick up to 0.6% in April, while a year earlier, the PCE price index should increase to 3.5% from 2.3% in March, while the y/y core PCE price index should jump to 2.9% from 1.8% in March, to record the highest level since 1993. Both sets of data will raise eyebrows at the Fed, but are unlikely to lead to any snap policy shifts.
U.S. personal income is set to fall sharply in April as the effects of stimulus checks sent earlier in the spring fade, with markets expecting a decline of more than 14% following March's outsized 21.1% gain.
Personal spending in April should increase 0.5% after jumping 4.2% in March, according to forecasts. Spending on goods stumbled in April, evidenced by the most recent retail sales report, but services spending could have improved as businesses continue to reopen and widely available vaccines make in-person activities safer.
US PCE Deflator Y/Y
Source: Bloomberg
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