Free Trial

Pullback Considered Corrective


Corrective Cycle


Corrective Bounce


Short-Term Trend Needle Points South

Real-time Actionable Insight

Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.

Free Access

MNI DATA BRIEF: US Apr PCE Seen Higher, Above Fed Comfort Zone

MNI (Washington)

The total PCE price index and core PCE price index -- a pair closely watched by Fed officials -- should both tick up to 0.6% in April, while a year earlier, the PCE price index should increase to 3.5% from 2.3% in March, while the y/y core PCE price index should jump to 2.9% from 1.8% in March, to record the highest level since 1993. Both sets of data will raise eyebrows at the Fed, but are unlikely to lead to any snap policy shifts.

U.S. personal income is set to fall sharply in April as the effects of stimulus checks sent earlier in the spring fade, with markets expecting a decline of more than 14% following March's outsized 21.1% gain.

Personal spending in April should increase 0.5% after jumping 4.2% in March, according to forecasts. Spending on goods stumbled in April, evidenced by the most recent retail sales report, but services spending could have improved as businesses continue to reopen and widely available vaccines make in-person activities safer.

US PCE Deflator Y/Y

Source: Bloomberg

MNI Washington Bureau | +1 202-371-2121 |

To read the full story

Why Subscribe to


MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.