MNI BRIEF: Forecasters See Higher Inflation -Philly Fed Survey

The Philly Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters has upgraded its outlook across the board, with GDP rising at an annual rate of 7.9% this quarter, up 2.9 pps from three months ago, unemployment decreasing to 4.5% a year from now and headline PCE inflation rising to 3.0% before returning to its long run average by fourth quarter.

The survey's 36 forecasters expect higher inflation, both in the short run and over the long run, predicting current-quarter headline CPI inflation to average 3.2%, up from 2.1% in the last survey. Headline PCE inflation over the current quarter will be 3.0%, up 1.2ppts from the previous estimate.

Over the next 10 years, 2021 to 2030, the forecasters expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.30% at an annual rate. The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average PCE inflation is 2.10%, 10-year projections that are slightly higher than those of the previous survey.