Trial now
USDCAD TECHS

Stronger In a Range

AUDUSD TECHS

Weaker In A Range

US TSYS SUMMARY

Ending The Week On A Soft Note

EURJPY TECHS

Bearish Risk Growing

USDJPY TECHS

Stronger, But Still Vulnerable

US

SP500 PE Ratio vs. CPI Inflation

Sign up now for free access to this content.

Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.

The Philly Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters has upgraded its outlook across the board, with GDP rising at an annual rate of 7.9% this quarter, up 2.9 pps from three months ago, unemployment decreasing to 4.5% a year from now and headline PCE inflation rising to 3.0% before returning to its long run average by fourth quarter.

The survey's 36 forecasters expect higher inflation, both in the short run and over the long run, predicting current-quarter headline CPI inflation to average 3.2%, up from 2.1% in the last survey. Headline PCE inflation over the current quarter will be 3.0%, up 1.2ppts from the previous estimate.

Over the next 10 years, 2021 to 2030, the forecasters expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.30% at an annual rate. The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average PCE inflation is 2.10%, 10-year projections that are slightly higher than those of the previous survey.