MNI BRIEF: US Consumers' Price Expectations Hit Records-NY Fed

The New York Fed's median measures of one-year-ahead and three-year-ahead consumer inflation expectations each edged up in September, both reaching a new high for the series that goes back to 2013. The year-ahead measure increased 0.1ppt to 5.3%, the eleventh consecutive monthly increase, and the three-year-ahead measure was up 0.2ppts to 4.2%, the third consecutive monthly increase.

Measures of disagreement across respondents was unchanged at the one-year horizon and decreased at the three-year horizon, the New York Fed said in a statement in its release of the Survey of Consumer Expectations. Home price growth expectations decreased by 0.4ppts in September to 5.5%, the fourth consecutive monthly decrease, while expectations for the price of gas plunged to 5.9% from 9.2% the prior month. The expected change in the cost of medical care and in the cost of rent each dropped 0.3ppts to 9.4% and 9.7%.

The survey, based on a rotating panel of 1,300 households, showed median expected household income remained unchanged at its series high of 3.0% and spending growth expectations was unchanged at 5.0%, above its 12-month trailing average of 4.3%.