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The Chicago Fed's new advance retail sales index shows U.S. spending likely recovered in June and sales excluding vehicles should jump into positive territory for the first time since March.
June retail sales excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers should increase 0.1%, according to the Fed bank's inaugural Advance Retail Trade Summary, tracking the Census Bureau's monthly retail sales report on a weekly basis using high-frequency data sources. Sales excluding autos fell 0.7% in May and were unchanged in April, according to Census.
Week-over-week sales rose 0.2% in the second week of June, according to the Chicago Fed's data, after increasing 1.2% through the previous week. The new index summarizes weekly data on credit and debit cards, mobility, and consumer sentiment.