MNI CBR Preview: April 2023 - Rates Seen Steady Despite Inflation Moderation

Executive summary:

• Rates expected to be held at 7.5% in April as inflationary risks remain skewed to the upside
• CPI has recently dropped below the CBR’s 4% target but the Board are expected to maintain their hawkish stance.
• Officials have indicated that further rate hikes are more likely than cuts this year.

See the full MNI Preview including a summary of sell-side analyst views here:

MNICBRPrevApr23.pdf

The Russian central bank is expected to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 7.5% in April as inflationary risks remain skewed to the upside despite CPI recently dropping below the CBR’s 4% target. The Board are expected to maintain their relatively hawkish stance on policy having said that rates are more likely to be raised than cut this year as fiscal policy remains loose.

In March, the central bank stated that while inflation trends have moderated and are generally in line with their forecast, risks remain skewed toward pro-inflationary ones. Particular attention was paid to the worrying pace of the increase in prices for services. Since then, inflation dropped considerably to +3.51% y/y in March from +10.99% y/y in February, though that decrease was expected and largely on the back of base effects. On the other hand, services inflation remains above target at +9.73%.