Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive summary:
- The Central Bank of Russia are unanimously expected to stand pat on rates at 16% given persistent inflationary concerns.
- Economic activity data points to robust domestic demand, while the labour market remains tight. Moreover, expectations of looser fiscal policy will further justify the Bank’s ‘higher-for-longer’ stance.
- Among sell-side, consensus is that the rate cutting cycle will likely begin in H2-2024.
See the full MNI Preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:
In February, headline inflation rose +7.69% Y/Y compared to +7.44% the month prior. Nevertheless, the Bank stated last month that the balance of inflationary risks are still skewed to the upside given persistently high inflation expectations, a higher upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path, as well as a fiscal policy normalisation path. Nevertheless, the CBR expect annual inflation to decline to 4.0–4.5% in 2024 and to stabilise close to 4% further on, assuming tight monetary conditions are maintained for a prolonged period.
Additionally, economic activity data continues to surprise to the upside – real wage (+8.5% Y/Y) and industrial production (+4.6% Y/Y) data for February both display the robustness of domestic demand, while the unemployment rate (2.9%) sits at record lows, highlighting the tightness of the labour market.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.