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MNI CBRT Preview - March 2024: Hold Likely But Hawkish Surprise Possible

The Central Bank of Turkey are broadly expected to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 45%.

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Executive summary:

  • The Central Bank of Turkey are broadly expected to keep the one-week repo rate on hold at 45%, having communicated previously that its hiking cycle is complete, though the recent acceleration in TRY depreciation and increasing pressure on Turkish FX reserves may prompt a hawkish surprise.
  • Indeed, while most of the sell-side previews we have collated in this document are expecting no change to the repo rate, most acknowledge that risks are skewed toward another hike at this juncture.
  • But given the proximity to the local elections on March 31, the central bank may decide to postpone any rate decision while it awaits more clarity on the inflation outlook.

See the full MNI Preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:

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Executive summary:

  • The Central Bank of Turkey are broadly expected to keep the one-week repo rate on hold at 45%, having communicated previously that its hiking cycle is complete, though the recent acceleration in TRY depreciation and increasing pressure on Turkish FX reserves may prompt a hawkish surprise.
  • Indeed, while most of the sell-side previews we have collated in this document are expecting no change to the repo rate, most acknowledge that risks are skewed toward another hike at this juncture.
  • But given the proximity to the local elections on March 31, the central bank may decide to postpone any rate decision while it awaits more clarity on the inflation outlook.

See the full MNI Preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:

Keep reading...Show less