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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive summary:
- The Central Bank of Turkey are broadly expected to keep the one-week repo rate on hold at 45%, having communicated previously that its hiking cycle is complete, though the recent acceleration in TRY depreciation and increasing pressure on Turkish FX reserves may prompt a hawkish surprise.
- Indeed, while most of the sell-side previews we have collated in this document are expecting no change to the repo rate, most acknowledge that risks are skewed toward another hike at this juncture.
- But given the proximity to the local elections on March 31, the central bank may decide to postpone any rate decision while it awaits more clarity on the inflation outlook.
See the full MNI Preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here:
While recent TRY weakness, a declining FX reserve position and an upside inflation surprise in February will have all certainly been unwelcome news to the central bank, a significant hawkish surprise to market expectations so close to the local elections seems unlikely. Sell-side consensus around February had been for rates to remain unchanged until no sooner than April, given the CBRT by then will have received inflation data for March, as well as clarity over the impact of its latest set of macroprudential measures implemented to manage financial conditions. Therefore, the one-week repo rate is likely to be kept unchanged at this juncture, as per the Bank’s previous guidance, though officials may deliver more hawkish rhetoric in the statement i.e., highlighting the growing upside risks to the inflation outlook.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.