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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Turkey Central Bank
Executive summary
- CBRT expected to keep its one-week repo unchanged at 19.00%, despite some analysts anticipating a 50bp cut
- The CBRT sidestepped promises to keep rates above inflation by pivoting towards core CPI (16.78% y/y in Aug)as the benchmark metric, away from headline (19.25% in Aug)
- Focus for this meeting will be on potential phraseology changes in the statement, with markets looking for clues as to when the CBRT might enact its first cuts.
- Our base case assumes no cuts at this meeting, with Nov-Dec being a more feasible target with expectations for lower inflation making a cut more palatable as the shock factor of premature easing softens and becomes better telegraphed by markets over the Sept-Nov months
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The CBRT is broadly expected to keep its One-Week Repo unchanged at 19% this week, amid brewing concerns that the recent shift towards core CPI will trigger a premature easing cycle. While some analysts anticipate a 50bps cut as early as this meeting, our base case sees November-December as a more likely starting point as more favourable base effects weigh on CPI metrics.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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