MNI Commodity Analysis: Sanctioned Barrels Cloud 2023 Oil Balances

Iranian Barrels: Crude and condensate flows out of Iran have surged to sanction era record levels in August, supported by higher domestic production and increased buying activity from China as it seeks discounted barrels. Questions remain around fleet restrictions and may limit Iran’s ability to keep the pace longer term.

Russian Barrels: Falling seaborne exports support Russia’s claims that it is adhering to OPEC+ cut commitments. Flows are down by over 1mn bpd on a four-week average basis versus their mid-May peak. Russia has circumvented export restrictions to a large extent by redirecting crude into domestic refineries as they returned from Spring maintenance.

Venezuelan Barrels: An easing of US sanctions late 2022 allowing Chevron greater ability to work in the country has supported crude exports which left at an average of 700,000 bpd across the first half of 2023, up from 579,000 bpd in the same period in 2022. Oil production has increased but will fall well short of an earlier 1mn bpd pledge in late 2023 by officials.

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MNI Commodity Analysis - Sanctioned Barrels Cloud 2023 Oil Balances.pdf