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MNI Commodity Weekly: Iranian Escalations Unrestrained by Oil Supply Fears

  • Iranian Escalations Unrestrained by Oil Supply Fears: As Iran increases its oil exports and regional influence, the US faces key tradeoffs, remaining reticent to cut-off the Islamic Republic’s oil supply despite rising tensions.
  • Oil Markets: Brent crude futures continue to bounce within a $6/bbl range this year with near term supply issues offsetting slow demand growth fears. Gasoline crack spreads have risen to their highest since September after cold weather disrupted US refinery output last week.
  • Gas Markets: European natural gas prices plunged to the lowest level in almost six months this week, weighed upon by mild weather, high renewables output and ample supplies. Delayed LNG arrivals in Europe caused by Red Sea diversions have failed to significantly support prices so far. US natgas prices also pulled back amid milder weather, high storage levels and a recovery in US production following freeze offs.
  • *See also European refinery maintenance (pg.6) and LNG sections (pg.9) this week.
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