MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Price Action Suggests Corrective Pullback Concluded

Price Signal Summary - AUD Price Action Suggests Corrective Pullback Concluded

• S&P E-Minis traded lower last week following the reversal from 3928.00, Nov 1 high. Despite the latest retracement, a bull cycle remains in play following the recovery from 3502.00, Oct 13 low. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and Friday’s rally reinforces this condition. The break to a fresh short-term trend high confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Oct 3.
• EURUSD rebounded Friday and is holding on to its most recent gains. The pair has, for now at least, defined support at 0.9730, Thursday’s low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.9976, the Nov 3 high where a break would ease the recent bearish threat. USDJPY traded lower Friday. The pair still appears vulnerable and resistance at 149.71, the Oct 24 high, remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the 50-day EMA at 144.74 - a key support. Clearance of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback. AUDUSD rallied Friday. The move higher suggests the recent pullback between Oct 27 - Nov 3 is over and the strong NY close Friday reinforces this idea. Key short-term resistance is at 0.6522, Oct 27 high and 0.6547, Oct 4 high.
• Gold found support Friday and ended the week on a bullish note, closing at the day's high. The rally Friday resulted in a print above the 50-day EMA at $1679.2. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would signal a short-term reversal. WTI futures traded higher Friday. The outlook is bullish. The contract has pierced resistance at $92.34, the Oct 12 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $95.55.
• Bund futures traded lower last week and in the process breached support at 137.57, the Oct 27 low. The break of this level undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term. Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend. The recent shallow retracement appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the uptrend. Price remains above the 20-day EMA and recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Holding On To Friday’s Gains

• RES 4: 1.0273 1.382 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.0198 High Sep 12 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.9976 High Nov 2
• PRICE: 0.9946 @ 05:52 GMT Nov 07
• SUP 1: 0.9868/9730 20-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 0.9705 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 0.9633 Low Oct 13 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.9536 Low Sep 28 and the bear trigger

EURUSD rebounded Friday and is holding on to its most recent gains. The pair has, for now at least, defined support at 0.9730, Thursday’s low. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.9976, the Nov 3 high where a break would ease the recent bearish threat and signal scope for an extension higher towards key resistance at 1.0094, the Oct 27 high. On the downside, a reversal lower and a move through 0.9730 would be seen as a bearish development.

GBPUSD TECHS: Watching Support

• RES 4: 1.1799 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Oct 5 - 12 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1738/87 High Sep 13 / 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1566/1645 High Oct 27 / High Nov 1
• RES 1: 1.1429 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.1333 @ 05:58 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 1.1150 Low Nov 04
• SUP 2: 1.1061 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 1.0924 Low Oct 12 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 1.0763 Low Sep 29

GBPUSD found support Friday. Last week’s extension lower resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes 1.1061, the Oct 21 low. The next key support lies at 1.0924, the Oct 12 low, where a break would strengthen a developing bearish threat. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher and a break of 1.1645, Oct 27 high, is required to reinstate the recent bull cycle.

EURGBP TECHS: Pierces Resistance, Momentum Points Higher

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Nov 12
• RES 1: 0.8785 High Nov 04
• PRICE: 0.8774 @ 06:18 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 0.8677 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP is starting the week on a firmer note, following last week’s gains and the recovery from 0.8560, the Oct 31 low. The cross has pierced a key short-term resistance at the Oct 21 high of 0.8781. A clear breach of this hurdle would reinstate a bullish theme and open 0.8867, the Oct 12 high. . For bears, a reversal lower and a move through last Wednesday’s low of 0.8585 would resume recent bearish activity.

USDJPY TECHS: Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: 153.39 3.764 proj of the May 24 - Jul 14 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 152.30 High Jul 1990
• RES 2: 151.95 High Oct 21
• RES 1: 149.71 High Oct 24
• PRICE: 147.22 @ 06:39 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 145.68/145.11 Low Nov 2 / Low Oct 27
• SUP 2: 144.74 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 143.53 Low Oct 5
• SUP 4: 141.77 Low Sep 23

USDJPY traded lower Friday. The pair still appears vulnerable and resistance at 149.71, the Oct 24 high, remains intact. A resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the 50-day EMA at 144.74 - a key support. Clearance of the average would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Note that momentum studies are still pointing down. For bulls, a break of 149.71 would be a positive development and this would expose the bull trigger at 151.95.

EURJPY TECHS: Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 149.46 1.382 proj of the May 12 - Jun 28 - Aug 2 price swing
• RES 3: 148.88 High Dec 9 2014
• RES 2: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 1: 146.80/147.75 High Nov 2 / High Oct 31
• PRICE: 146.33 @ 06:53 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 144.04/143.80 Low Nov 3 / Oct 24 and key support
• SUP 2: 143.42 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 4: 140.90 Low Oct 10

EURJPY found support last week at 144.04, the Nov 3 low. This means key support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low, remains intact. A break of this level would suggest scope for a deeper retracement and open 141.78, the Oct 13 low. On the upside, a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 148.40, the Oct 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend that started Aug 2 and open 149.46, a Fibonacci retracement.

AUDUSD TECHS: Strong Rebound Signals Bullish Reversal

• RES 4: 0.6682 Low Jul 14 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 0.6656 High Sep 23
• RES 2: 0.6600 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6522 High Oct 27 / 4 and a key resistance zone
• PRICE: 0.6434 @ 08:17 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 0.6272 Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 0.6210/6170 Low Oct 21 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6133 1.382 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.6099 76.4% retracement of the 2020 - 2021 bull cycle

AUDUSD rallied Friday. The move higher suggests the recent pullback between Oct 27 - Nov 3 is over and the strong NY close Friday reinforces this idea. Key short-term resistance is at 0.6522, Oct 27 high and 0.6547, Oct 4 high. A breach of this resistance zone would strengthen the case for bulls. On the downside, a reversal lower and a breach of Thursday’s 0.6272 low, would reinstate a bearish threat.

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.4016 3.382 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing
• RES 3: 1.4000 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 1.3855/3977 High Oct 21 / 13 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3808 High Nov 03
• PRICE: 1.3520 @ 08:22 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 1.3638/3469 20-day EMA / Low Nov 7
• SUP 2: 1.3409 Low Sep 22
• SUP 3: 1.3358 Low Sep 21
• SUP 4: 1.3227 Low Sep 20

USDCAD traded sharply lower Friday. Support at 1.3498, the 50-day EMA and 1.3496, the Oct 27 low, have been pierced. A clear break of this support zone would strengthen a bearish threat and likely trigger an extension of the downward cycle that started Oct 13. This would open 1.3409, the Sep 22 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 1.3808, last Thursday’s high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 140.39/92 50-day EMA / High Oct 28 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 138.04/139.95 20-day EMA / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 136.89 @ 05:11 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 136.38 Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: 135.65 76.4% retracement of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 3: 136.46/134.02 Low Oct 25 / 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 133.74 0.618 proj of the Aug 2 - 12 - 15 price swing

Bund futures traded lower last week and in the process breached support at 137.57, the Oct 27 low. The break of this level undermines the recent bullish theme and signals scope for a deeper retracement near-term. This has opened 135.65, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that key support is still far off at 134.02, the Oct 21 low. On the upside, key resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 140.39. Initial resistance is 138.05, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 122.510 High Sep 12
• RES 3: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 121.010/330 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger / 5
• RES 1: 119.474/120.420 20-day EMA / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 118.850 @ 05:18 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 118.500 Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: 118.430 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 117.630 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures traded lower again Friday. Last week's round of weakness resulted in a break of support at 119.090, the Oct 27 low. This undermines the recent bullish theme. An extension lower would highlight the risk of a pullback towards key support and a bear trigger at 117.630, the Oct 21 low. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 121.010, the Oct 28 high. A break of this level is required to confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Remains Vulnerable

• RES 4: 107.770 High Oct 4 and the reversal trigger
• RES 3: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 107.165/400 High Nov 1 / High Oct 28
• RES 1: 106.913 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 106.655 @ 05:29 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 106.545 Low Nov 7
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

The move lower last week in Schatz futures undermines the recent bull theme. The contract has cleared initial support at 106.710, the Oct 27 low. The break strengthens a bearish threat and an extension lower would highlight potential for a test of the key support and bear trigger at 106.350, the Oct 21 low. Key resistance is at 107.400, Oct 28 high. A break would confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 106.84 High Sep 8
• RES 3: 106.25 High Sep 12
• RES 2: 105.34 High Sep 22 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 104.39 High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 101.41 @ Close Nov 4
• SUP 1: 100.38 Low Oct 25
• SUP 2: 98.15 Low Oct 24
• SUP 3: 95.82 Low Oct 21 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 94.82/92.66 Low Oct 17 / 14

Gilt futures remain in a short-term uptrend. The recent shallow retracement appears to be a bull flag formation, reinforcing the uptrend. Price remains above the 20-day EMA and recent gains resulted in a break of key resistance at 100.92, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens bullish conditions and opens 105.34 next, the Sep 23 high. Key support has been defined at 95.82, the Oct 21 low. A break of this level would be bearish.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Trading At Last Week’s Lows

• RES 4: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 3: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 119.06 High Sep 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 116.54/117.93 High Nov 1 / High Oct 27 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 113.23 @ Close Nov 4
• SUP 1: 112.868 Low Nov 7
• SUP 2: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 3: 108.82 Low Oct 21
• SUP 4: 108.13 Low Sep 28 and key support

BTP futures continue to trade below 117.93, the Oct 27 high and remain closer to last week’s lows. A continuation lower would undermine a bull theme and expose the next support at 112.07, the Oct 25 low. Key support lies at 108.82, Oct 21 low and 108.13, the Sep 28 trend low. On the upside, the contract needs to clear resistance at 117.93 to confirm a resumption of bullish activity.

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z2) Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 113-30 High Oct 4 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 112-25+ 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 112-22+ High Oct 6
• RES 1: 110-31+/111-31 20-day EMA / High Oct 27
• PRICE: 109-30+ @ 15:55 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: 109-10+ Low Nov 04
• SUP 2: 108-26+ Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 108-06+ Low Oct 2007 (cont)
• SUP 4: 107.08 3.0% 10-dma envelope

Treasuries remain below last week’s high of 111-31 on Oct 27 - a key short-term resistance. A break of this hurdle is required to signal scope for an extension higher near-term and expose the 50-day EMA at 112-25+. However, this week’s bearish extension exposes the key support and bear trigger at 108-26+, the Oct 21 low. A break of this support would confirm a resumption of the primary downtrend.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Resumes Its Uptrend

• RES 4: 3857.00 High Jun 6 (cont)
• RES 3: 3810.00 High Aug 17 and key pivot point
• RES 2: 3753.00 High Aug 19
• RES 1: 3712.00 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 3684.00 @ 05:54 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 3562.00/3518.60 Low Nov 3 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3418.00 Low Oct 21
• SUP 3: 3352.00 Low Oct 14
• SUP 4: 3251.00/3236.00 Low Oct 13 / 3 and a key support zone

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and Friday’s rally reinforces this condition. The break to a fresh short-term trend high confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Oct 3. The break has paved the way for gains above the 3700.00 level. The next key resistance is at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high. Firm support is seen at the 50-day EMA. The average intersects at 3518.60.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Remains Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 4023.44 61.8% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 3981.25 High Sep 14
• RES 1: 3828.6/3928.00 50-day EMA / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 3772.25 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: 3704.25/3641.50 Low Nov 3 / Low Oct 21
• SUP 2: 3590.50/3502.00 Low Oct 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3491.13 50.0% retracement of the 2020 - 2022 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 3453.78 1.618 proj of the Aug 16 - Sep 7 - 13 price swing

S&P E-Minis traded lower last week following the reversal from 3928.00, Nov 1 high. Despite the latest retracement, a bull cycle remains in play following the recovery from 3502.00, Oct 13 low. However, an extension lower would undermine this theme. Initial firm to watch lies at 3641.50, the Oct 21 low. A break would strengthen any developing bearish threat. For bulls, a strong resumption of gains would refocus attention on 3928.00, the bull trigger.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Breaches Key Resistance

• RES 4: $105.58 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 bear leg
• RES 3: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 2: $99.50 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $98.81 - High Nov 4
• PRICE: $97.40 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: $93.09/91.46 - 20-day EMA / Low Oct 31 and a key support
• SUP 2: $87.52 - Low Oct 18
• SUP 3: $83.38 - Low Sep 30
• SUP 4: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key support

Brent futures maintain a bullish tone and the contract traded higher Friday. Price has breached resistance at $96.75, the Oct 10 high and a key short-term resistance. The break strengthens the current bullish theme and paves the way for a climb towards $99.50, the Aug 30 high. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $91.46, the Oct 31 low. A break of this level is required to threaten the bull cycle.

WTI TECHS: (Z2) Heading North

• RES 4: $99.79 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $97.38 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - Sep 26 downleg
• RES 2: $95.55 - High Aug 30
• RES 1: $92.87 - High Nov 4
• PRICE: $91.15 @ 07:17 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: $87.60 - Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: $85.30 - Low Oct 31 and key support
• SUP 3: $81.30 - Low Oct 18 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: $78.36 - Low Sep 30

WTI futures traded higher Friday. The outlook is bullish. The contract has pierced resistance at $92.34, the Oct 12 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $95.55. Moving average studies are beginning to display a bull mode position, reinforcing the current positive outlook. The contract has defined a key short-term support at $81.30, the Oct 18 low.

GOLD TECHS: Strong Bounce

• RES 4: $1745.6 - High Aug 29
• RES 3: $1729.5 - High Oct 4 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $1714.8 - High Oct 7
• RES 1: $1682.1 - High Nov 4
• PRICE: $1670.0 @ 07:04 GMT Nov 7
• SUP 1: $1655.6/1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: $1610.5 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 13 - Jul 21 - Aug 10 swing
• SUP 3: $1600.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $1569.1 - Low Apr 1 2020

Gold found support Friday and ended the week on a bullish note, closing at the day's high. The rally Friday resulted in a print above the 50-day EMA at $1679.2. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would signal a short-term reversal and suggests potential for further gains near-term. This would open $1714.8, the Oct 7 high. Key support is unchanged at $1615.0, the Sep 28 low. A break of this support would resume the recent downtrend.

SILVER TECHS: Rally Exposes Key Short-Term Resistance

• RES 4: $21.967 - High Jun 17
• RES 3: $21.540 - High Jun 27
• RES 2: $21.242 - High Oct 4 and key resistance
• RES 1: $20.906 - High Nov 4
• PRICE: $19.761 @ 08:01 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 2: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $16.955 - Low Jun 15 2020
• SUP 4: $16.473 - 1.00 proj of the Jun 6 - Jul 14 - Aug 10 price swing

Silver rallied sharply higher Friday. This cancels a recent bearish theme and confirms an extension of the recovery that started Oct 14. A continuation higher would expose the next key resistance at $21.242, the Oct 4. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen a short-term bullish condition. On the downside, the first support to watch lies at $18.835, the Nov 3 low. A break of this level is required to once again highlight a bearish threat.