MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Recent Reversal Reinforces Bearish Theme

Price Signal Summary - AUD Recent Reversal Reinforces Bearish Theme

• S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp reversal from 4303.00, the May 4 high. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a breach of support at 4056.00, the May 2 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode. The contract has traded through fromer support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low to highlight a resumption of the current bear cycle. This sets the scene for an extension lower and opens 3458.90, a Fibonacci retracement.
• EURUSD is trading above its recent lows and continues to consolidate. The pause in the downtrend appears to be a bear flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that highlights a shallow correction. USDJPY bullish conditions remain in place. The pair probed resistance at 131.25 yesterday, the Apr 28 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open the next objective at 131.96, a Fibonacci projection. AUDUSD started the week on a bearish note and has resumed its current downtrend. The failure last week at 0.7266, high May 4/5 and the sharp reversal from this level reinforces a bearish theme.
• Gold remains vulnerable. Price has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA and continues to trade below this average. Furthermore, the pullback from $1998.4 (Apr 18 high), continues to highlight a bearish threat. WTI futures reversed course yesterday. Last week’s break of triangle resistance, drawn from the Mar 15 low, highlighted a bullish development. However the sell-off yesterday, suggests the bullish break was a false one. This threatens the recent recovery and instead exposes support at $95.28, Apr 25 low.
• Trend signals in Bund futures are unchanged and continue to point south. Fresh cycle lows yesterday reinforce this condition and confirm, once again, a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The Gilt futures trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies continue to point south and the dominant bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Flag Formation

• RES 4: 1.0936 High Apr 21 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 2: 1.0670/0758 20-day EMA / Low Apr 14 - recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.0642 High May 5
• PRICE: 1.0578 @ 05:54 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 1.0472/54 Low Apr 28 and the bear trigger / Low Jan 1 2017
• SUP 2: 1.0390 Low Jan 4 2017
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0333 1.236 proj of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 - 31 price swing

EURUSD is trading above its recent lows and continues to consolidate. The pause in the downtrend appears to be a bear flag formation - a bearish continuation pattern that highlights a shallow correction. Moving average studies are in a bear mode condition, highlighting current market sentiment. A resumption of weakness would open 1.0454, the Feb 22 2017 low. Watch resistance at 1.0670, the 20-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Theme

• RES 4: 1.2877 High Apr 25
• RES 3: 1.2669/2772 20-day EMA / High Apr 26
• RES 2: 1.2638 High May 4 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2406 High May 9
• PRICE: 1.2366 @ 06:06 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 1.2252 Low Jun 29 2020
• SUP 2: 1.2200 Round number support
• SUP 3: 1.2162 Low May 22 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2081 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Jun ‘21 uptrend

GBPUSD is trading closer to its recent lows. The outlook remains bearish following last Thursday’s sharp sell-off. The breach of 1.2412, Apr 28 low, confirms a recent shallow correction and a bear flag breakout on the daily frequency. The move lower also confirms a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for weakness towards 1.2252 next, the Jun 29 2020 low. Key short-term resistance is unchanged at 1.2638, the May 4 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.862426 High Oct 1 2021 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8600 High Dec 8 2021
• RES 1: 0.8591 High May 6
• PRICE: 0.8552 @ 06:30 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 0.8468 High Apr 27 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 0.8393/67 50-day EMA / Low May 2
• SUP 3: 0.8313 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 0.8250 Low Apr 14 and a key support

EURGBP remains bullish following last week’s gains to multi-month highs of 0.8591. The recent rally reinforces a bullish theme and marks an extension of the rally that started from 0.8250, the Apr 14 low. This signals scope for a climb towards the 0.8600 handle next. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 0.8367, the May 2 low. Initial support is seen at 0.8468, Apr 27 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Probes Resistance

• RES 4: 133.11 High Apr 4 2002
• RES 3: 132.39 High Apr 15 2002
• RES 2: 131.96 1.00 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 131.35 High May 9 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 130.43 @ 06:38 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 128.22 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 126.95 Low Apr 27 and a key support
• SUP 3: 125.09 Low Apr 14
• SUP 4: 124.01 Low Apr 11

USDJPY bullish conditions remain in place. The pair probed resistance at 131.25 yesterday, the Apr 28 high. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open the next objective at 131.96, a Fibonacci projection. A move higher would also maintain a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Key support has been defined at 126.95, Apr 27 low. A break would signal a reversal. Initial support is at 128.22.

EURJPY TECHS: Trend Condition Remain Bullish

• RES 4: 141.06 High Jun 4 2015 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 140.98 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 140.87 0.50 proj of the Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 price swing
• RES 1: 138.32/140.00 High May 9 / High Apr 21 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 137.94 @ 06:46 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 136.52 Low May 2
• SUP 2: 134.67/30 50-day EMA / Low Apr 5 and a key support
• SUP 3: 132.95 Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: 132.33 Low Mar 23

EURJPY continues to consolidate and is holding on to its most recent gains. The recent pullback is considered corrective and the current trend direction is up. Key support highlighted by the 50-day EMA, remains intact. The average intersects at 134.90, just above a key support at 134.30, Apr 5 low. While these support levels hold, trend conditions remain bullish. The bull trigger is unchanged at 140.00, the Apr 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Support

• RES 4: 0.7379 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 0.7271 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7030/7135 Low May 2 / High May 6
• PRICE: 0.6978 @ 06:54 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 0.6911 intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6876 0.618 proj of the Apr 5 - May 2 - 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 0.6833 Low Jun 30 2020
• SUP 4: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020

AUDUSD started the week on a bearish note and has resumed its current downtrend. The failure last week at 0.7266, high May 4/5 and the sharp reversal from this level reinforces a bearish theme. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too, highlighting current sentiment. Support at 0.6968, the Jan 28 low and a bear trigger, has been breached. This opens 0.6876 next, a Fibonacci projection.

USDCAD TECHS: Clears The Bull Trigger

• RES 4: 1.3173 High Nov 13 2020
• RES 3: 1.3106 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.3091 High Nov 24 2020
• RES 1: 1.3037 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3000 @ 07:03 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 1.2914/2814 High May 2 / Low May 6
• SUP 2: 1.2714/2701 Low May 5 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
• SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21

USDCAD traded higher Monday and cleared resistance at 1.2914, the May 2 high, as well as key resistance at 1.2964, the Dec 20 2021 high. The break of the latter level marks an important medium-term bullish technical development and reinforces the broader bullish outlook. This has opened 1.3106 next, the upper band of a moving average envelope. Initial support is seen at 1.2914. Key support lies at 1.2714, the Apr 29 low.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Bear Trend Extension

• RES 4: 157.87 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 157.50 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 156.00 High Apr 28 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 152.74/154.28 High May 6 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 152.02 @ 04:54 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 150.49 Low May 9
• SUP 2: 150.15 0.764 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 150.00 Psychological round number
• SUP 4: 149.49 Low Jul 13 2015 (cont)

Trend signals in Bund futures are unchanged and continue to point south. Fresh cycle lows yesterday reinforce this condition and confirm, once again, a resumption of the primary downtrend and an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode. Attention is on 150.15 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance has been defined at 156.00, the Apr 28 high.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: 129.350 High Apr 4 and a reversal point
• RES 3: 128.830 High Apr 7
• RES 2: 128.310 High Apr 14/28 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 127.474 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 126.860 @ 04:56 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 126.010 Low May 6
• SUP 2: 126.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 125.450 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 29 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 125.260 Low Apr 24 20014 (cont)

Bobl futures traded lower Friday. A fresh cycle low once again reinforces the primary downtrend, maintaining the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving averages continue to point south, highlighting current sentiment. Scope is seen for weakness towards 125.450 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term trend resistance has been defined at 128.310, the Apr 14/28 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 110.855 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 110.745 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 110.540 High Apr 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 110.354 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 110.285 @ 05:07 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 109.980 Low May 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 109.777 0.618 proj of the Mar 7 - 30 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 3: 109.555 Low Oct 31 2011 (cont)
• SUP 4: 109.340 Low Oct 28 011 (cont)

The trend direction in Schatz futures remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. Last week’s fresh cycle lows reinforce a bearish theme. The move lower confirms a continuation of the primary downtrend and an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. MA studies remain in a bear mode. The focus is on 109.777 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance is 110.540, the Apr 28 high.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 122.35 High Apr 4
• RES 3: 120.96 High Apr 6
• RES 2: 120.25 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 118.75/119.79 20-day EMA / High Apr 25 and key resistance
• PRICE: 118.11 @ Close May 9
• SUP 1: 116.87 Low May 9
• SUP 2: 116.35 Low Dec 30 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 115.40 1.00 proj of the Mar 1 - 28 - Apr 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 115.00 Round number support

The Gilt futures trend condition remains bearish. Moving average studies continue to point south and the dominant bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact. A firm resistance has been defined at 119.79, Apr 26 high where a break is required to reinstate a bullish theme. Yesterday's print below support at 117.22, Apr 22 low, signals a resumption of the downtrend. Short-term gains are considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Remains Soft

• RES 4: 136.12 High Apr 7
• RES 3: 135.23 High Apr 14 and the 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 131.12/133.53 20-day EMA / High Apr 28
• RES 1: 130.03 High Jun 5
• PRICE: 126.49 @ Close May 9
• SUP 1: 125.54 Low May 9
• SUP 2: 125.02 1.236 proj of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 124.02 Low Mar 18 2020 (cont) and a major support
• SUP 4: 123.41 1.382 proj of the of the Mar 1 - 29 - 31 price swing

The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged and remains bearish - another round of weakness Monday resulted in a fresh cycle low print. This maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that defines a downtrend. Moving average studies are in a bear mode too and the focus is on 125.02 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term resistance has been defined at 133.53, the Apr 28 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bear Cycle Extension

• RES 4: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3775.00 High Jun 5
• RES 1: 3693.90 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3504.00 @ 05:31 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 3466.00 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 3: 3400.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and a major support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain in a bear mode. The contract has traded through fromer support at 3608.00, Apr 27 low to highlight a resumption of the current bear cycle. This sets the scene for an extension lower and opens 3458.90, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would open 3309.00, the Mar 7 low and a major support. On the upside, firm resistance has been defined at 3775.00, Jun 5 high. A break of this level would alter the picture.

E-MINI S&P (M2): Clears Support

• RES 4: 4588.75 High Apr 5
• RES 3: 4509.00 High Apr 21 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 4356.65 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 4099.00/4303.50 High May 9 / High Apr 26/28
• PRICE: 4011.50 @ 07:00 BST May 10
• SUP 1: 3961.75 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 3958.00 2.00 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 3: 3892.98 2.23 proj of the Mar 29 - Apr 18 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 3843.25 Low Mar 25 2021 (cont)

S&P E-Minis remain vulnerable following last week’s sharp reversal from 4303.00, the May 4 high. Yesterday’s move lower resulted in a breach of support at 4056.00, the May 2 low. A clear break of this support confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend and opens 3958.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance has been defined at 4303.50, the Apr 26/28 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (N2) Reversal Exposes Support

• RES 4: $123.44 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $121.13 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 2: $115.76 - High Mar 24 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $107.01/114.00 - 20-day EMA / High May 5
• PRICE: $104.70 @ 07:12 BST May 10
• SUP 1: $103.10 - Low May 2
• SUP 2: $99.25 - Low Apr 25 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: $97.18 - Low Apr 11
• SUP 4: $92.59 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger

Brent futures have failed to hold on to recent highs. Last week’s break of triangle resistance, drawn from the Mar 15 low, highlighted a bullish development. However the sell-off yesterday, suggests the bullish break was a false one. This threatens the recent recovery and instead exposes support at $99.25, Apr 25 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case and confirm a bearish triangle breakout. Key resistance is at $114.00, the May 5 high.

WTI TECHS: (M2) False Triangle Breakout?

• RES 4: $119.95 - High Mar 8
• RES 3: $118.13 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $113.51/113.90 - High Mar 24 / 76.4% of Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $103.96 / 111.37 - 20-day EMA / High May 5
• PRICE: $102.68 @ 07:57 BST May 10
• SUP 1: $100.28 - Low May 2
• SUP 2: $95.28 - Low Apr 25 and a key near-term support
• SUP 3: $92.60 - Low Apr 11 and a key support
• SUP 4: $90.37 - Low Mar 15 and a bear trigger

WTI futures reversed course yesterday. Last week’s break of triangle resistance, drawn from the Mar 15 low, highlighted a bullish development. However the sell-off yesterday, suggests the bullish break was a false one. This threatens the recent recovery and instead exposes support at $95.28, Apr 25 low. A break would strengthen a bearish case and confirm a bearish triangle breakout. Key resistance is at $111.37, the May 5 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bearish Risk Still Present

• RES 4: $2009.2 - High Mar 10
• RES 3: $1998.4 - High Apr 18 and a bull trigger
• RES 2: $1958.4 - High Apr 20
• RES 1: $1909.8/1919.9 - High May 5 / High Apr 29
• PRICE: $1863.6 @ 07:24 BST May 10
• SUP 1: $1850.5 - Low May 3
• SUP 2: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 3: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28

Gold remains vulnerable. Price has recently cleared support at the 50-day EMA and continues to trade below this average. Furthermore, the pullback from $1998.4 (Apr 18 high), continues to highlight a bearish threat. The focus is on $1848.8, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would open $1821.1, the Feb 11 low. On the upside, $1909.8, the May 5 high, is seen as the initial resistance.

SILVER TECHS: Trades Through Support

• RES 4: $26.943 - High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 and a key short-term resistance
• RES 2: $25.293 - High Apr 20
• RES 1: $23.465/24.051.142 - 20-day EMA / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $22.035 @ 08:19 BST May 10
• SUP 1: $21.695 - Low May 9
• SUP 2: $21.427 - Low Dec 15 2021
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 2021
• SUP 4: $20.983 - 1.764 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver remains bearish and the metal started the week on a softer note, trading lower yesterday. This resulted in a breach of support at $22.008, the Feb 3 low and a bear trigger. The move lower reinforces the bearish theme and signals scope for an extension towards $21.427, the Dec 15 2021 low, and $21.423, the Sep 29 2021 low. On the upside, firm short-term resistance has been defined at $23.465, the 20-day EMA.