MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUDUSD Price Action Suggests Scope for Deeper Retracement

Price Signal Summary – AUDUSD Price Action Suggests Scope for Deeper Retracement

• A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the recent pullback still appears to be a correction. The move lower has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Key near-term support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 4376.94, remains intact. The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the pair has recovered from Monday’s low. A continuation higher would open 4448.00, the Jun 16 high and the bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and expose 4472.40, a Fibonacci projection.
• A bearish corrective cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading at this week’s lows. The pair has breached support at 1.2646, the 20-day EMA. The break of this average signals scope for a deeper pullback and exposes the 50-day EMA, at 1.2545. USDJPY maintains a bullish tone and has again traded higher today. The pair has breached 144.40 - the 1.382 projection of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing and the break signals scope for 145.66, a Fibonacci projection and 145.94, resistance at the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. AUDUSD remains soft following recent weakness and the extension of the reversal that started Jun 16. The downleg has resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6627, 61.8% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally, has also been cleared.
• Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and the yellow metal traded lower again yesterday, before finding some support. Fresh trend lows reinforce current bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and recent gains are considered corrective. Support at $67.21, the May 31 low, was again pierced on Wednesday, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend.
• Bund futures faced resistance Thursday and the contract remains below this week’s high of 135.00 (Jun 27). The contract has this week breached resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high. A stronger recovery would open 135.85, the Jun 1 high. Recent gains in Gilt futures resulted in a break of resistance at the 20-day EMA. However, the contract has pulled back and is trading below 97.00, the Jun 23 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective and a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 97.64.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Support To Watch Is At The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
• RES 3: 1.1095 High Apr 26 and key resistance
• RES 2: 1.1054 High May 8
• RES 1: 1.0977/1012 High Jun 27 / 22 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0868 @ 05:46 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 1.0852/04 50-day EMA / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 1.0733 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 1.0667 Low Jun 6
• SUP 4: 1.0635 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

EURUSD traded lower Thursday and the pair continues to trade below Tuesday’s high of 1.0977. Key support to watch is at 1.0852, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback towards 1.0804, the Jun 15 low and 1.0733, the Jun 12 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is unchanged at 1.1012, the Jun 22 high. A break would resume the recent bull cycle.

GBPUSD TECHS: Approaching The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.2977 0.764 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2877 High Apr 25 2022
• RES 2: 1.2849 0.618 proj of the Mar 8 - May 10 - May 25 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2687/2760 Low Jun 23 / High Jun 27
• PRICE: 1.2625 @ 06:03 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 1.2591 Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: 1.2545/33 50-day EMA / Trendline drawn from the Mar 8 low
• SUP 3: 1.2433 Low Jun 8
• SUP 4: 1.2369 Low Jun 5 and a key support

A bearish corrective cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and the pair is trading at this week’s lows. The pair has breached support at 1.2646, the 20-day EMA. The break of this average signals scope for a deeper pullback and exposes the 50-day EMA, at 1.2545. Note that a trendline support intersects at 1.2533 - drawn from the Mar 8 low. Initial key resistance is 1.2760, the Jun 27 high. The bull trigger is at 1. 2849, a Fibonacci projection.

EURGBP TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 0.8788 Trendline resistance drawn from the Feb 3 high
• RES 3: 0.8749 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 19 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8719 High May 23
• RES 1: 0.8658 High Jun 28 and a short-term bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8609 @ 06:21 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 0.8594/36 Low Jun 28 / Low Jun 23
• SUP 2: 0.8518 Low Jun 19 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8496 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 0.8454 76.4% retracement of the Mar - Sep 2022 bull cycle

The primary trend in EURGBP is down and recent S/T gains are considered corrective. However, Wednesday’s rally strengthens the current bull cycle, signalling scope for a continuation. The 20-day EMA has been cleared and resistance at the 50-day EMA has been tested - at 0.8652. A clear break of the EMA would expose 0.8719, May 23 high. Initial firm support to watch has been defined at 0.8536, Jun 23 low. 0.8518 is the bear trigger, the Jun 19 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Heading North

• RES 4: 146.12 76.4% Oct-Jan Downleg
• RES 3: 145.94 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 145.66 1.50 proj of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing
• RES 1: 145.07 Intraday high
• PRICE: 144.66 @ 06:43 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 143.29 Low Jun 27
• SUP 2: 141.94 Former bull channel top drawn from the Jan 16 high
• SUP 3: 141.84/21 20-day EMA / Low Jun 20
• SUP 4: 139.85 Low Jun 16

USDJPY maintains a bullish tone and has again traded higher today. The pair has breached 144.40 - the 1.382 projection of the Jan 16 - Mar 8 - Mar 24 price swing and the break signals scope for 145.66, a Fibonacci projection and 145.94, resistance at the 2.0% 10-dma envelope. USDJPY is the most overbought (as per the 14-day RSI) since mid-October. Key S/T support is at 141.84 the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a deeper correction.

EURJPY TECHS: Maintains A Bullish Tone

• RES 4: 159.92 2.236 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 159.09 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 158.72 2.00 proj of the May 11 - 29 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 158.00 High Jun 28
• PRICE: 157.24 @ 06:58 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 155.06/154.05 Low Jun 23 / 20 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 154.26 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 153.09 Low Jun 16
• SUP 4: 151.61 Low Jun 15

EURJPY maintains a bullish tone and the cross is holding on to its latest gains. This week’s price action reinforces a bullish theme and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 158.72, a Fibonacci projection. Initial key support is at 155.06, the Jun 23 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 0.6921 High Feb 20
• RES 3: 0.6857/6900 High Jun 20 / 16 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.6701/6806 20-day EMA / High Jun 27
• RES 1: 0.6663 Low Jun 23
• PRICE: 0.6624 @ 07:25 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 0.6596 Low June 29
• SUP 2: 0.6579 Low Jun 5
• SUP 3: 0.6562 76.4% retracement of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally
• SUP 4: 0.6485 Low Jun 1

AUDUSD remains soft following recent weakness and the extension of the reversal that started Jun 16. The downleg has resulted in a break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, suggesting scope for a deeper retracement. 0.6627, 61.8% of the May 31 - Jun 16 rally, has also been cleared and this opens 0.6562 next, the 76.4% retracement point. Key resistance is 0.6900, the Jun 16 high. Initial firm resistance is at 0.6701, the 20-day EMA.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.3427 High Jun 7
• RES 3: 1.3382 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3355 High Jun 15
• RES 1: 1.3280/86 20-day EMA / High Jun 29
• PRICE: 1.3264 @ 07:56 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 1.3190/3117 Low Jun 28 / 27 and key support
• SUP 2: 1.3084 1.618 proj of the Apr 28 - May 8 - May 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2992 50.0% retracement of the Jun - Oct 2022 bull rally
• SUP 4: 1.2954 Low Sep 13 2022

USDCAD has added to this week’s gains. The latest recovery is considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. A resumption of weakness would open 1.2992, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, firm resistance is seen at 1.3280, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.3382.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U3) Key Short-Term Resistance Defined At 135.00

• RES 4: 136.50 High May 11
• RES 3: 135.85 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.61 High Jun 2
• RES 1: 135.00 High Jun 27
• PRICE: 133.56 @ 05:20 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 133.33/132.47 Low Jun 29 / Low Jun 22
• SUP 2: 132.12 Low May 26 and key support
• SUP 3: 131.89 1.00 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 131.21 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bund futures faced resistance Thursday and the contract remains below this week’s high of 135.00 (Jun 27). The contract has this week breached resistance at 134.77, the Jun 12 high. A stronger recovery would open 135.85, the Jun 1 high. 135.00 is the first key resistance. For bears, the pullback highlights potential for a move lower towards key support and the bear trigger at 132.12, the May 26 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U3) Bearish Outlook

• RES 4: 117.700 High Jun 1 and key short-term resistance
• RES 3: 117.200 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 116.990/117.010 High Jun 12 / 7
• RES 1: 116.450 High Jun 26
• PRICE: 115.690 @ 05:20 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 115.570/320 Low Jun 29 / Low Jun 22 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 115.198 1.236 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 115.986 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 4: 114.815 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Bobl futures continue to trade below Monday’s high. Recent gains are considered corrective and the trend outlook remains bearish. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend and the move lower yesterday reinforces a bearish theme. The focus is on 115.198, a Fibonacci projection. The bear trigger is 115.320, the Jun 22 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 116.450, the Jun 26 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U3) Trend Needle Points South

• RES 4: 105.550 High Jun 12 and key near-term resistance
• RES 3: 105.495 High Jun 13
• RES 2: 105.164 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 105.055 High Jun 28
• PRICE: 104.880 @ 05:21 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 104.804 1.382 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 2: 104.740 1.50 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 104.695 Low Mar 10 (cont)
• SUP 4: 104.597 1.764 projection of the Jun 1 - 8 - 12 price swing

Schatz futures remain in a downtrend and recent gains appear to be a correction. Recent fresh cycle lows confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This extends the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a downtrend. The focus is on 104.804 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm resistance to watch is at 105.164, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U3) Primary Trend Direction Remains Down

• RES 4: 98.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 97.64 High Jun 1 and the reversal trigger
• RES 2: 97.43 High Jun 2
• RES 1: 96.34/97.00 High Jun 27 / 23
• PRICE: 95.64 @ Close Jun 29
• SUP 1: 95.06/93.88 Low Jun 29 / 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 93.45 1.618 proj of the Feb 2 - 28 - Mar 20 price swing (cont)
• SUP 3: 93.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 92.66 Low Oct 14 2022 (cont)

Recent gains in Gilt futures resulted in a break of resistance at the 20-day EMA. However, the contract has pulled back and is trading below 97.00, the Jun 23 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective and a continuation higher would expose key resistance at 97.64, the Jun 1 high. The medium-term trend condition is bearish - a stronger reversal lower and a break of 93.88, the Jun 20 low, would confirm a resumption of the trend.

BTP TECHS: (U3) Watching Support

• RES 4: 118.41 1.00 projection of May 26 - Jun 2 - Jun 8 price swing
• RES 3: 118.18 High Feb 2 (cont)
• RES 2: 118.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 117.60 High Jun 26 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 116.08 @ Close Jun 29
• SUP 1: 115.53/114.61 Low Jun 22 / Low Jun 15
• SUP 2: 113.83 Low Jun 8 and key support
• SUP 3: 112.48 Low May 29
• SUP 4: 111.78 Low May 26 and a key support

BTP futures traded to a fresh cycle high on Monday. Price has recently breached resistance at 117.16, the Jun 16 high and a short-term bull trigger. This represents a bullish development and a continuation higher would open the 118.00 handle next. However, the most recent pullback does threaten a bullish theme and attention turns to support at 114.61, the Jun 15 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U3) Primary Uptrend Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4487.00 1.50 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 4472.40 1.382 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 4448.00 High Jan 2008 (cont)
• RES 1: 4498.00 High Jun 29 / High Jun 16 and bull trigger
• PRICE: 4388.00 @ 06:36 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 4262.00 Low Jun 26
• SUP 2: 4241.00 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4200.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4150.00 Low Mar 29

The Eurostoxx 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the pair has recovered from Monday’s low. A continuation higher would open 4448.00, the Jun 16 high and the bull trigger. A break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and expose 4472.40, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key support lies at 4241.00, the May 31 low. A breach of this level is required to signal a reversal.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U3) Support Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4556.71 2.382 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 4535.96 Bull channel top drawn from the Mar 13 low
• RES 2: 4532.08 2.236 projection of the May 4 - 19 - 24 price swing
• RES 1: 4493.75 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 4441.00 @ 06:55 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: 4376.94 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4294.69 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4154.75 Low May 24
• SUP 4: 4098.25 Low May 4 and a key support

A bull theme in S&P E-minis remains intact and the recent pullback still appears to be a correction. The move lower has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. Key near-term support at the 20-day EMA, which intersects at 4376.94, remains intact. A break of this average would strengthen a short-term bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback. On the upside, the bull trigger is 4493.75, the Jun 16 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q3) Bearish Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: $84.56 - High Apr 18
• RES 3: $82.47 - High Apr 25
• RES 2: $80.08 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $77.24/78.73 - High Jun 21 / 5 and a bull trigger
• PRICE: $74.46 @ 06:43 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $71.50 - Low May 31
• SUP 2: $71.20 - Low Jun 20 / Low May 4
• SUP 3: $70.06 - Low Mar 20 and a key support
• SUP 4: $69.28 - Low Dec 20 2021 (cont)

Despite recent gains, a bearish threat in Brent futures remains present. Scope is seen for a move towards $71.20, the May 4 low, ahead of $70.06, the Mar 20 low. Moving average studies remain in a bear mode position and this highlights a downtrend. On the upside, clearance of $78.73, the Jun 5 high, would alter the picture and signal a reversal. Initial firm resistance is at $77.24, the Jun 21 high.

WTI TECHS: (Q3) Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: $80.39 - High Apr 19
• RES 3: $78.62 - High Apr 24
• RES 2: $76.35 - High Apr 28
• RES 1: $72.72/75.70 - High Jun 21 / High Jun 5 and a key resistance
• PRICE: $69.92 @ 07:05 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $66.96 - Low Jun 12
• SUP 2: $64.41 - Low May 4 and key support
• SUP 3: $62.43 - Low Dec 2 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: $60.00 - Psychological round number

WTI futures remain in a bear mode condition and recent gains are considered corrective. Support at $67.21, the May 31 low, was again pierced on Wednesday, a clear break would open $64.41, the May 4 low. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position highlighting a downtrend. The contract is trading below resistance at $75.70, the Jun 5 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. Initial resistance is $72.72, the Jun 21 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bears Remain In The Driver’s Seat

• RES 4: $2070.4 - High Mar 8 and a bull trigger
• RES 3: $2063.0 - High May 4
• RES 2: $2022.6 - High May 12
• RES 1: $1936.8/85.3 - 20-day EMA / High May 24 and key resistance
• PRICE: $1904.8 @ 07:19 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $1893.1 - Low Jun 29
• SUP 2: $1885.8 - Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $1865.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 4 bull cycle
• SUP 4: $1827.8 - Low MAr 10

Trend conditions in Gold remain bearish and the yellow metal traded lower again yesterday, before finding some support. Fresh trend lows reinforce current bearish conditions, confirming a resumption of the downtrend and extending the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on $1885.8, the Mar 15 low. Key resistance is $1985.3, the May 24 high. Initial resistance is $1936.8, the 20-day EMA.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure

• RES 4: $26.771 - High Mar 9 2022
• RES 3: $26.222 - High Apr 18 2022 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $25.477/26.135 - High May 11 / 5 and bull trigger
• RES 1: $23.209/24.530 - 20-day EMA / High Jun 12
• PRICE: $22.502 @ 08:01 BST Jun 30
• SUP 1: $22.111 - Low Jun 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $21.375 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 10 - May 5 rally
• SUP 3: $20.591 - Low Mar 13
• SUP 4: $19.904 - Low Mar 10 and a key support

A bearish theme in Silver remains intact and the recent gains are considered corrective. The metal has recently cleared support at $22.682, the May 26 low and a bear trigger, to confirm a resumption of the downtrend. This paves the way for a move towards the $22.00 handle and $21.375, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance has been refined at $24.530, the Jun 12 high. A break of this level would highlight a reversal.