MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bear Threat Remains Present in Gold

Price Signal Summary – Bear Threat Remains Present in Gold

• The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price has recently cleared 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position too. The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. A corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a pullback from the May high. Recent weakness has seen price breach 4988.00, Jun 11 low, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement.
• A short-term bearish theme in GBPUSD remains in play and despite yesterday’s gains, price is trading closer to its recent lows. Key support at 1.2673, the 50-day EMA, has been cleared, signalling scope for a deeper correction towards 1.2584. The trend in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish, however, Monday’s volatility signals scope for short-term retracements. Initial key support to watch is 157.55, the 20-day EMA. Recently, price breached 158.21, 76.4% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off.AUDUSD is unchanged and continues to trade within its range. The range highlights two important levels; a key resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, and a key support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers.
• Gold continues to trade below resistance and a bear threat remains present. A sharp sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. The yellow metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2318.4. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and open $2277.4. WTI futures are trading at their latest highs and the current bull phase remains intact. The recent move higher has resulted in a break of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance. The clear breach of this hurdle cancels a bearish theme and paves the way for $82.24.
• Bund futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. A bull cycle remains in play. The latest pause still appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. Furthermore, recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 132.83. Gilt futures remain bullish and price is trading closer to its latest highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29.

EURUSD TECHS: Resistance Remains Intact

• RES 4: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.0852 High High Jun 12
• RES 2: 1.0784 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.0761 High Jun 18
• PRICE: 1.0737 @ 05:39 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 1.0668 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 3: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0568 Low Nov 2

The short-term trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish. Resistance is intact and gains are considered corrective. The recent breach of support at 1.0720, the Jun 11 low, strengthened a bearish theme and note too that 1.0675, 76.4% of the Apr 16 - Jun 4 bull leg, has been pierced. A clear break of this level would open 1.0650 next, the May 1 low. Key resistance is at 1.0852, the Jun 12 high. Initial firm resistance is 1.0784, the 50-day EMA.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.2947 1.50 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2908 1.382 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 2: 1.2894 High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2740/2860 High Jun 19 / 12
• PRICE: 1.2692 @ 05:52 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 1.2633 Low June 24
• SUP 2: 1.2584 Low May 15
• SUP 3: 1.2514 61.8% retracement of the Apr 22 - Jun 12 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2446 Low May 9 and a key near-term support

A short-term bearish theme in GBPUSD remains in play and despite yesterday’s gains, price is trading closer to its recent lows. Key support at 1.2673, the 50-day EMA, has been cleared, signalling scope for a deeper correction towards 1.2584, the May 15 low. For bulls, a reversal higher and a break of 1.2860, the Jun 12 high, would resume the uptrend. Initial resistance to watch is 1.2740, the Jun 19 high.

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remains Bearish

• RES 4: 0.8541 High May 31
• RES 3: 0.8529 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 0.8510 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8474/78 20-day EMA / High Jun 24
• PRICE: 0.8460 @ 06:13 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 0.8397 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8340 Low Aug 2 2022

Short-term gains in EURGBP appear to be a correction and a bearish theme remains intact. The latest move down, reinforces the bear cycle and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a clear downtrend. Sights are on 0.8366 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance is at 0.8474, the 20-day EMA.

USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 161.50 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 3: 160.92 1.50 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 160.17 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 159.92 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 159.31 @ 06:37 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 157.55 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 155.98 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 155.61 /154.55 Trendline drawn from Dec 28 low / Low Jun 4
• SUP 4: 153.60 Low May 16

The trend in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish, however, Monday’s volatility signals scope for short-term retracements. Initial key support to watch is 157.55, the 20-day EMA. Recently, price breached 158.21, 76.4% of the Apr 29 - May 3 sell-off. The clear break of this price point signals scope for a move towards 160.17, the Apr 29 high and the key resistance. A break of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend.

EURJPY TECHS: Approaching The Bull trigger

• RES 4: 173.01 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 172.77 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 171.56 High Apr 29 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 171.45 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 171.22 @ 06:50 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 169.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 168.68/167.53 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low / Low Jun 14
• SUP 3: 167.33 Low May 16
• SUP 4: 165.64 Low May 7

The EURJPY trend structure remains bullish and the cross traded higher Monday. The key trendline support - currently at 168.68 - remains intact. The line is drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear breach of it is required to threaten a bullish theme and highlight a potential reversal. 170.89 resistance, the Jun 3 high, has been breached. Sights are on the bull trigger at 171.56, Apr 29 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Moving Average Studies Highlight An Uptrend

• RES 4: 0.6771 High Jan 3
• RES 3: 0.6751 76.4% retracement of the Dec 28 - Apr 19 bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6729 High Jan 12
• RES 1: 0.6714 High Jun 16 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6663 @ 06:58 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 2: 0.6558 Low May 8
• SUP 3: 0.6539 50.0% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg
• SUP 4: 0.6497 61.8% retracement of the Apr 19 - May 16 bull leg

AUDUSD is unchanged and continues to trade within its range. The range highlights two important levels; a key resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high, and a key support at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Both levels represent important short-term directional triggers. Clearance of 0.6714, would open 0.6751, a Fibonacci retracement. A break through 0.6576 would expose 0.6558 initially, the May 8 low. MA studies are in a bull-mode set-up and highlight an uptrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Trades Through Support

• RES 4: 1.3977 High Oct 13 ‘23 and a key M/T resistance
• RES 3: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 1: 1.3699/3792 20-day EMA / High Jun 11
• PRICE: 1.3653 @ 07:21 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 1.3641/3590 Intraday low / Low May 16 and a key support
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4

USDCAD traded lower last week and has started this week on a bearish note. The pair has traded through the Jun 12 low of 1.3680, and 1.3676, the 50-day EMA. The break signals scope for a continuation lower, towards key support at 1.3590, the May 16 low. Clearance of this level would threaten a bullish theme. The trend outlook remains bullish, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play

• RES 4: 133.94 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 133.71 High Apr 12
• RES 2: 133.42 1.764 proj of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 133.21 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 132.59 @ 05:17 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 131.76/131.69 50- and 20-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 130.21 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger

Bund futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. A bull cycle remains in play. The latest pause still appears to be a flag - a bullish continuation pattern. Furthermore, recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at 132.83, the May 16 high. These factors strengthen a bullish theme and signal scope for a continuation higher, towards 133.42 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support is 131.76, the 50-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Bullish Theme

• RES 4: 117.640 2.236 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 117.440 High May 16 2024 (cont)
• RES 3: 117.380 2.00 proj of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 117.160 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 116.800 @ 05:13 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 116.340/116.305 Low Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 115.790 Low Jun 13
• SUP 3: 115.560 Low Jun 12
• SUP 4: 115.180 Low Jun 10

Bobl futures remain in consolidation mode and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest move higher resulted in a break of resistance at 116.750, the May 16 high. This confirms a stronger bullish theme and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Sights are on 117.380 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 116.305, the 20-day EMA. First support lies at 116.340, the Jun 14 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 106.225 3.00 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 106.091 2.618 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: 106.009 2.382 proj of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing
• RES 1: 105.975 High Jun 14
• PRICE: 105.785 @ 05:41 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 105.625/105.585 Low Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 105.310 Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 105.000 Round number support

Schatz futures are unchanged and remain in consolidation mode. A bull cycle is in play. The latest move higher resulted in a break of resistance at 105.460, the Jun 4 / 5 high. This strengthens a short-term bullish condition and signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Sights are on 106.009 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm short-term support has been defined at 105.585, the 20-day EMA.

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bullish Theme Remains Intact

• RES 4: 100.21 1.50 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 3: 100.00 Psychological round number
• RES 2: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 1: 99.25 1.236 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• PRICE: 98.49 @ Close Jun 24
• SUP 1: 98.21 Low Jun 14 / 17
• SUP 2: 97.89/96.84 20-day EMA / Low Jun 12
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 95.58 Low May 31

Gilt futures remain bullish and price is trading closer to its latest highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of 97.86, the Jun 4 high and 98.05, 76.4% of the May 16 - 29 bear cycle. This highlights a resumption of the bull cycle that started May 29. Note too that resistance at 98.89, the May 16 high, has been pierced. A clear break of it would reinforce bullish conditions. Sights are on 99.25, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 97.89, the 20-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (U4) Trading Below Resistance

• RES 4: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 117.62 High Jun 5 and key resistance
• RES 1: 117.09 High Jun 21
• PRICE: 116.53 @ Close Jun 24
• SUP 1: 115.28/114.35 Low Jun 12 / 11
• SUP 2: 114.02 1.236 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 3: 113.60 1.382 proj of the May 16 - 29 - Jun 5 price swing
• SUP 4: 112.77 61.8% of the Oct 19 - Dec 27 2023 rally (cont)

BTP futures have traded in a volatile manner recently. The latest bear reversal from the Jun 5 high, confirmed the end of the corrective phase between May 29 - Jun 5. This resulted in a break of key support at 115.54, Apr 25 low, highlighting a resumption of the downtrend. However, price has rebounded from the Jun 11 low of 114.35. Initial key resistance is 117.62, Jun 5 high. A break would be bullish. First resistance is 117.09, last Friday’s high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Watching Resistance

• RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6
• RES 2: 5092.00 High Jun 12
• RES 1: 5008.00/39.84 50-day EMA / 61.8% of May 16-Jun 14 sell-off
• PRICE: 4981.00 @ 05:49 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 4860.00 Low Jun 14
• SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing

The trend condition in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains bullish. A corrective cycle is in play and this has resulted in a pullback from the May high. Recent weakness has seen price breach 4988.00, Jun 11 low, highlighting potential for a deeper retracement and has exposed 4846.00, Apr 19 low and a key support. The recovery from the Jun 14 low is potentially an early bullish signal. Resistance to watch is at 5039.84, a Fibonacci retracement.

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 5622.69 2.764 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: 5600.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 5594.66 2.618 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5588.00 High Jun 20
• PRICE: 5521.25 @ 07:14 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 5458.51/5366.69 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support
• SUP 3: 5213.25 Low May 6
• SUP 4: 5155.75 Low May 3

The uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Price has recently cleared 5430.75, the May 23 high and bull trigger. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position too, highlighting positive market sentiment. Sights are on 5594.66 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch lies at 5458.51, the 20-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q4) Trading At Its Recent Highs

• RES 4: $91.11 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 3: $90.22 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $87.04 -76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 5 bear leg
• RES 1: $86.24 - High Jun 21
• PRICE: $86.08 @ 06:53 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: $83.35 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.32/76.76 - Low Jun 7 / 4
• SUP 3: $75.63 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.47 - Low Dec 13 and a key support

Brent futures remain in a bull-mode condition and the contract traded higher last week. Recent climb resulted in a break of key S/T resistance at $84.72, the May 29 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and instead signals scope for a bullish continuation near-term. Sights are on $87.04, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial support to watch is $83.35, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as an early reversal signal.

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Northbound

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $85.24 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $82.24 - 76.4% retracement of the Apr 12 - Jun 4 bear leg
• RES 1: $81.90 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $81.65 @ 07:06 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: $78.65 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support

WTI futures are trading at their latest highs and the current bull phase remains intact. The recent move higher has resulted in a break of $80.11, the May 29 high and a key resistance. The clear breach of this hurdle cancels a bearish theme and paves the way for $82.24, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch is $78.65, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as an early potential reversal signal.

GOLD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2387.8 - High Jun 7
• PRICE: $2324.5 @ 07:11 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: $2286.9 - Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold continues to trade below resistance and a bear threat remains present. A sharp sell-off on Jun 7 reinforced a short-term bearish theme. The yellow metal has pierced the 50-day EMA, at 2318.4. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the reversal from May 20 and open $2277.4, the May 3 low. Clearance of this price point would also strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance is $2387.8, the Jun 7 high.

SILVER TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $29.531 @ 07:52 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: $29.024/28.659 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 13
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver is trading above its recent lows, for now. The metal traded lower Jun 7 and cleared support at $29.381, the Jun 4 low. That break signals scope for a deeper retracement. Note that a bearish corrective cycle is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $29.024. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme. A reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance at $32.518, May 20 high.