MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bearish Theme Remains in Oil

Price Signal Summary - Bearish Theme Remains in Oil

• The short-term outlook in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Price is consolidating and a bull flag has appeared on the daily chart - a continuation pattern. Recent gains resulted in a break of 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger, has recently been breached, strengthening the case for bulls.
• EURUSD traded lower Monday, extending the pullback from last week’s 1.0479 high on Nov 15 high. The move lower is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. EURGBP edged through Friday’s lows on Monday, breaking out of the recent tight range. The move lower extends the pullback from the 0.8829 high on Nov 9. The AUDUSD trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The next support lies at 0.6558, the 50-day EMA and represents an important intraday level.
• Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in the break of $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for $1800.0. WTI futures sold off sharply Monday before retracing its losses. A bearish theme remains in place following recent weakness and an extension of the reversal from $92.53, Nov 7 high.
• Bund futures are consolidating but maintain a bullish tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price is trading just above the 50-day EMA at 139.96. A clear breach of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme. Short-term trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price traded higher last week, extending the current uptrend. The recent break of 104.39, Oct 27 high, confirmed a bull flag formation.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.0615 High Jun 27
• RES 3: 1.0559 1.764 proj of the Sep 28 - Oct 4 - 13 price swing
• RES 2: 1.0536 High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.396/0479 High Nov 18 / 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.0251 @ 05:46 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 1.0198/0136 High Sep 12 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.0094 High Oct 27 and a key near-term resistance
• SUP 3: 1.0034 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.9936 Low Nov 11

EURUSD traded lower Monday, extending the pullback from last week’s 1.0479 high on Nov 15 high. The move lower is considered corrective and this is allowing a recent overbought trend condition to unwind. Next support to watch lies at 1.0198, the Sep 12 high. On the upside, a resumption of gains and a break of 1.0479 would mark the end of the correction and confirm a resumption of recent gains.

GBPUSD TECHS: Remains Below Last Week’s High

• RES 4: 1.2216/26 200-dma / 4.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.2143/94 High Aug 17
• RES 2: 1.2080 High Aug 18
• RES 1: 1.2028 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 1.1846 @ 06:02 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 1.1764/1636 Low Nov 17 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1544 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1334/1150 Low Nov 09 / Nov 04 and a bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.1061 Low Oct 21

GBPUSD is consolidating closer to its recent highs. The trend condition remains bullish, however, short-term signals highlight an overbought condition. Last week’s gains resulted in a print above the upper band of the 3.0% 10-dma envelope. Price failed to hold on to this break and pulled back. A deeper retracement would highlight a corrective cycle. 1.2028 is the trigger for a resumption of gains. Firm support is at 1.1544, the 50-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Short-Term Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 0.9066/9266 High Sep 28 / High Sep 26 and key resistance
• RES 3: 0.8980 High Sep 29
• RES 2: 0.8867 High Oct 12
• RES 1: 0.8776/8829 High Nov 16 / 09 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.8656 @ 06:11 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 0.8613 100-dma
• SUP 2: 0.8560/59 Low Oct 31 / 76.4% of Aug 2 - Sep 26 rally
• SUP 3: 0.8522 Low Aug 30
• SUP 4: 0.8471 Low Aug 28

EURGBP edged through Friday’s lows on Monday, breaking out of the recent tight range. The move lower extends the pullback from the 0.8829 high on Nov 9. A continuation lower would expose the Oct 31 low of 0.8560, where a break would resume bearish activity. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position and this suggests that the broader uptrend is intact. A break of 0.8829 would be bullish.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Bounce Extends

• RES 4: 145.11 Low Oct 27 and a recent breakout level
• RES 3: 143.62 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 142.48 High Nov 11
• RES 1: 142.25 High Nov 21
• PRICE: 141.85 @ 06:45 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 139.64/37.68 Low Nov 18 / 15 and a bear trigger
• SUP 2: 137.37 Low Aug 29
• SUP 3: 135.82 Low Aug 23
• SUP 4: 135.49 76.4% retracement of the Aug 2 - Oct 21 bull leg

Short-term trend conditions in USDJPY remain bearish and Monday’s gais are considered corrective. The move higher is allowing a recent oversold trend condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is at 143.62, the 50-day EMA. A break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger correction. On the downside, a break of 137.68, Nov 15 low, would resume the downtrend and open 137.37, the Aug 29 low.

EURJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 148.40/45 High Oct 21 and the bull trigger / High Dec 15 2014
• RES 3: 147.75 High Oct 31
• RES 2: 147.10 High Nov 9
• RES 1: 146.02 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 21 high
• PRICE: 145.52 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 144.04/42.57 50-day EMA / Low Nov 11 and the bear Trigger
• SUP 2: 141.78 Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: 140.90 Low Oct 10
• SUP 4: 140.00 76.4% retracement of the Sep 26 - Oct 21 rally

EURJPY maintains a firmer short-term tone and continues to trade above 142.57, the Nov 10 low. Despite these gains, a bearish threat remains present. Recent weakness resulted in a break of support at 143.80, the Oct 24 low. A resumption of weaknes would open 141.60, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, clearance of resistance at 147.10, the Nov 9 high, would instead expose the bull trigger at 148.40, the Oct 21 high.

AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback Extends

• RES 4: 0.6956 High Aug 30
• RES 3: 0.6909 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 0.6800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 0.6730/6797 High Nov 18 / 15
• PRICE: 0.6614 @ 08:06 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 0.6585 Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 0.6558 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6387 Low Nov 10
• SUP 4: 0.6272 Low Nov 3 and a key support

The AUDUSD trend condition remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The next support lies at 0.6558, the 50-day EMA and represents an important intraday level. A break would signal scope for a deeper retracement. On the upside, a resumption of gains and a break of 0.6797, the Nov 15 high would resume the uptrend and open the 0.6800 handle.

USDCAD TECHS: Pierces The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.3808 High Nov 3 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3662 Trendline resistance drawn from the Oct 13 high
• RES 2: 1.3571 High Nov 10
• RES 1: 1.3495 High Nov 21
• PRICE: 1.3425 @ 08:12 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 1.3301/3226 Low Nov 18 / 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3205 61.8% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally
• SUP 3: 1.3139 Low Sep 14
• SUP 4: 1.3023 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Oct 13 rally

USDCAD bounced Monday, putting prices north of the 50-day EMA. A firm break and close above this average, at 1.3453 today, would undermine the recent bearish theme. This would expose 1.3571, the Nov 10 high where a break would also signal scope for a stronger recovery and open the 1.3662, trendline resistance. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3226, Nov 15 low. A break would resume bearish activity.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z2) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 142.87 High Oct 4 and a key reversal point
• RES 3: 142.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 141.74 High Oct 5
• RES 1: 141.09 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 140.08 @ 05:07 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 138.94 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 136.92 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 135.76/65 Low Nov 8 / 76.4% of the Oct 21 - 28 bull phase
• SUP 4: 135.23 Low Oct 24

Bund futures are consolidating but maintain a bullish tone and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price is trading just above the 50-day EMA at 139.96. A clear breach of this average would threaten the recent bearish theme and highlight a stronger short-term reversal. This would open 142.87, the Oct 4 high. The 20-day EMA marks initial support - it intersects at 138.94. Key short-term support lies at 135.76, the Nov 8 low.

BOBL TECHS: (Z2) Resistance At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• RES 4: 121.950 High Oct 4 and a reversal trigger
• RES 3: 121.330 High Oct 5
• RES 2: 121.010 High Oct 28 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 120.196/530 High Nov 10 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 119.830 @ 05:14 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 119.110/118.260 Low Nov 10 / 8 and key short-term support
• SUP 2: 117.630 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 117.342 2.618 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 116.986 2.764 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing

Bobl futures are consolidating and continue to trade below 120.530, the Nov 10 high. Recent gains have resulted in a test of the 50-day EMA, at 120.196 today. A clear breach of this EMA would undermine the recent bearish theme and expose 121.010, the Oct 28 high and potentially 121.950 further out, Oct 4 high. On the downside, a break of 118.260, Nov 8 low would highlight a resumption of bearish activity and expose the bear trigger at 117.630.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z2) Monitoring Resistance

• RES 4: 107.610 High Oct 5
• RES 3: 107.400 High Oct 28 and key resistance
• RES 2: 107.128 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 107.075 High Nov 11
• PRICE: 106.820 @ 05:11 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 106.615/415 Low Nov 10 / 8
• SUP 2: 106.350 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 106.270 2.50 proj of the Aug 25 - Sep 1 - Sep 6 price swing
• SUP 4: 106.00 Round number support

Schatz futures are unchanged and trading in a range plus price remains above the Nov 8 low. The trend condition is bearish, however, a resumption gains would expose resistance at the 50-day EMA which intersects at 107.128. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger short-term recovery. On the downside, key support lies at 106.415, the Nov 8 low and 106.350, the Oct 21 low. The latter is the bear trigger.

GILT TECHS: (Z2) Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 109.47 High Aug 31 (cont)
• RES 3: 108.59 61.8% of the Aug 2 - Oct 12 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 108.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 107.17 High Nov 17
• PRICE: 106.25 @ Close Nov 21
• SUP 1: 104.64 Low Nov 16
• SUP 2: 102.99 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 101.60 Low Nov 9
• SUP 4: 99.92 Low Nov 8 and key short-term support

Short-term trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bullish and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Price traded higher last week, extending the current uptrend. The recent break of 104.39, Oct 27 high, confirmed a bull flag formation on the daily chart, reinforcing bullish conditions. This has opened 108.59, a Fibonacci retracement on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 102.99, the 50-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z2) Fresh Short-Term Cycle High

• RES 4: 124.35 76.4% retracement of the Aug 11 - Sep 28 bear leg
• RES 3: 121.32 High Aug 25
• RES 2: 120.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 119.49 High Nov 21
• PRICE: 118.78 @ Close Nov 21
• SUP 1: 116.05/113.80 20-day EMA / Low Nov 9
• SUP 2: 112.45 Low Nov 8 and a key short-term support
• SUP 3: 112.07/110.14 Low Oct 25 / 14
• SUP 4: 108.82 Low Oct 21

BTP futures traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Monday. The outlook is bullish. The contract has breached 117.93, Oct 27 high plus a key resistance at 119.06, Sep 8 high, has been pierced. A clear break of 119.06 would pave the way for a continuation of the bull cycle and open the 120.00 handle. Initial firm support is seen at 116.05, the 20-day EMA. Key support lies at 112.45, the Nov 8 low. A break below the latter would reinstate a bearish theme.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (Z2) Holding On To Recent Gains

• RES 4: 4000.00 Psychological round number
• RES 3: 3961.20 61.8/% of the Nov ‘21 - Mar ‘22 bear leg (cont)
• RES 2: 3944.00 High Mar 29 and a key resistance (cont)
• RES 1: 3936.00 High Nov 18
• PRICE: 3916.00 @ 05:35 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 3810.00/3697.00 High Aug 17 / Low Nov 10
• SUP 2: 3636.80 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 3562.00 Low Nov 3
• SUP 4: 3418.00 Low Oct 21

A bullish EUROSTOXX 50 futures outlook remains intact and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. Resistance at 3810.00, the Aug 17 high and an important bull trigger, has recently been breached, strengthening the case for bulls. Furthermore, moving average studies remain in a bull mode set-up, highlighting positive market sentiment. The focus is on 3944.00, Mar 29 high on the continuation chart. Initial firm support lies at 3697.00, the Nov 10 low.

E-MINI S&P (Z2): Bull Flag Formation

• RES 4: 4175.00 High Sep 13 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 4146.63 76.4% retracement of the Aug 16 - Oct 13 downleg
• RES 2: 4100.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4050.75 High Nov 15
• PRICE: 3957.25 @ 06:38 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: 3865.69 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 3750.00 Low Nov 9
• SUP 3: 3704.25 Low Nov 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 4: 3641.50 Low Oct 21

The short-term outlook in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Price is consolidating and a bull flag has appeared on the daily chart - a continuation pattern. Recent gains resulted in a break of 3928.00, the Nov 1 high. This has established a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows on the daily scale. The focus is on 4100.00 next. Initial firm support lies at 3865.69, the 50-day EMA.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F3) Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: $102.28 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $100.10 - High Jul 29
• RES 2: $96.95/99.56 - High Nov 14 / 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $90.63/92.23 - High Nov 18 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: $87.60 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: $82.31 - Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: $80.94 - Low Sep 26 and key medium-term support
• SUP 3: $80.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $77.04 - Low Jan 3 (cont)

Brent futures sold off sharply Monday but retraced the day's losses and price is unchanged. A bearish theme remains intact. Recent weakness has resulted in a break of support at $87.52, Oct 18 low. This reinforces a bearish theme and note that $85.33, 76.4% of the Sep 26 - Nov 7 bull cycle has been cleared. This signals scope for weakness towards $80.94, the Sep 26 low and a bear trigger. Initial firm resistance is at $92.23, the 50-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (F3) Trend Needle Still Points South

• RES 4: $97.51 - High Jul 5
• RES 3: $94.11 - High Aug 30
• RES 2: $89.20/92.53 - High Nov 11 / 7 and key resistance
• RES 1: $82.43/85.38 - High Nov 18 / 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $79.91 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: $74.96 - Low Sep 28 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 2: $73.38 - 1.00 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing
• SUP 3: $70.00 - Round number support
• SUP 4: $68.86 - 1.236 proj of the Aug 30 - Sep 28 - Nov 7 price swing

WTI futures sold off sharply Monday before retracing its losses. A bearish theme remains in place following recent weakness and an extension of the reversal from $92.53, Nov 7 high. Support at $80.49, Oct 18 low and a bear trigger, was cleared Friday. $79.11, 76.4% of the Sep 28 - Nov 7 bull phase has also been cleared. Attention is on $74.96, the Sep 28 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance is seen at $85.38, the 50-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $1833.0 - High Jun 29
• RES 3: $1807.9 - High Aug 10 and a key resistance
• RES 2: $1800.0 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $1786.5 - High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1741.7 @ 07:16 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: $1718.6 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $1702.3 - Low Nov 9 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1664.8 - Low Nov 8
• SUP 4: $1615.0 - Low Sep 28 and a bear trigger

Short-term trend conditions in Gold remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains resulted in the break of $1729.5, the Oct 4 high. This strengthens the current bullish theme and signals scope for $1800.0 and a key resistance at $1807.9, Aug 10 high. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at $1702.3, the Nov 9 low. The bull trigger is at $1786.5, the Nov 15 high.

SILVER TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $23.567 - High Apr 29
• RES 3: $23.360 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• RES 2: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• RES 1: $22.251/253 - High Nov 15 / 50.0% of the Mar - Sep bear leg
• PRICE: $21.104 @ 08:14 GMT Nov 22
• SUP 1: $20.6442 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $20.050 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $18.835/17.967 - Low Nov 3 / Low Sep 28
• SUP 4: $17.562 - Low Sep 1 and bear trigger

Silver has pulled back from its recent highs. However, the short-term outlook remains bullish and a move lower is considered corrective. The metal rallied sharply higher on Nov 4 and price has breached resistance at $21.242, Oct 4 high. The break strengthens bullish conditions and highlights a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This opens $22.253, a Fibonacci retracement. First support is seen at $20585, Monday’s low.