MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bond Bear Market Still Has Legs

Price Signal Summary – Bond Bear Market Still Has Legs

• S&P E-Minis failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4161.21. Futures are weak again today, extending the latest reversal lower. The pullback paves the way for weakness towards the key support and bear trigger at 3810.00, May 20 low. EUROSTOXX 50 futures have weakened again today as the contract extends the reversal from recent highs. The move lower lst week and today, threatens the recent bull theme.
• EURUSD ended last week’s session on a softer note and the short-term outlook remains bearish. The latest key technical development has been the inability to clear the top of its bear channel resistance, drawn from the Feb 10 high - the channel top intersects at 1.0724 today. USDJPY has started the week on a firm and traded above the 135.00 handle - the weakest level since 1998. The move higher maintains the current bullish theme plus the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A sharp rally in USDCAD last week has cemented a short-term reversal. Key near-term support has been defined at 1.2518, the Jun 8 low. The extension signals potential for a climb towards resistance at 1.2896, the May 19 high.
• The short-term outlook in Gold is bullish and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at $1871.7. The yellow metal has tested levels above the average, a clear break is still required to signal scope for a stronger rally towards trendline resistance at $1899.0. WTI futures remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Futures on May 31, breached resistance at $116.43, Mar 7 high and a former contract high.
• A bearish theme and strong downward price pressure continued to deliver fresh lows last week in Bund futures. Trend conditions remain bearish. Price has recently cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low, and the 150.00 handle. Gilt futures traded lower again Friday. The move down last week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg that began May 19.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 4: 1.0852 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 1.0787 High May 30
• RES 2: 1.0724/74 Bear channel top from Feb 10 high / High Jun 9
• RES 1: 1.0656 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0493 @ 06:20 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 1.0461 Low May 18 and19
• SUP 2: 1.0350 Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0341 Low Jan 3 2017 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.0195 Bear channel base, drawn from the Feb 10 high

EURUSD ended last week’s session on a softer note and the short-term outlook remains bearish. The latest key technical development has been the inability to clear the top of its bear channel resistance, drawn from the Feb 10 high - the channel top intersects at 1.0724 today. The reversal lower suggests the May 13 - 30 correction is over. This opens 1.0461 next, the May 18/19 low. Key resistance is at 1.0724/87.

GBPUSD TECHS: Sights Are On The Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 1.2659 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 1.2599 High Jun 7
• RES 2: 1.2517 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.2431 Low Jun 7
• PRICE: 1.2300 @ 06:31 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 1.2262 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.2156 Low May 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2081 76.4% retracement of the Mar ‘21 - Jan ‘21 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number

GBPUSD downside accelerated Friday and the move lower highlights a clear reversal of the bull cycle between May 13 - 27. A number of short-term support levels have been cleared signalling potential for weakness towards key support and the bear trigger at 1.2156, the May 13 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the broader downtrend. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at 1.2517, the 20-day EMA.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
• RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
• RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8592 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 0.8533 @ 06:45 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 0.8470/8433 50-day EMA / Low May 23
• SUP 2: 0.8393/91 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2
• SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg

EURGBP remains above last week’s low of 0.8486 and recent weakness is considered corrective. The recovery from the May 17 low of 0.8393, highlights a bullish theme and signals scope for gains to 0.8619, May 12 high and a key hurdle for bulls. Moving average studies are in a bull mode and a break of 0.8619 would resume the uptrend that started Mar 7. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8393, May 17 low. A break would be bearish.

USDJPY TECHS: Trades Above 135.00

• RES 4: 138.56 1.618 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 3: 137.30 1.50 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 2: 136.04 1.382 proj of the Feb 24 - Mar 28 - 31 price swing
• RES 1: 135.19 Intraday high
• PRICE: 135.04 @ 05:31 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 133.19/131.87 Low Jun 9 / Low Jun 7
• SUP 2: 130.60 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 127.91 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 126.36 Low May 24 and key support

USDJPY has started the week on a firm and traded above the 135.00 handle - the weakest level since 1998. The move higher maintains the current bullish theme plus the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are also pointing north and indications are that the USD has further to go. The focus is on the 136.04, a Fibonacci projection. handle. Initial firm support is seen at 130.60, the 20-day EMA.

EURJPY TECHS: Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30 2014
• RES 3: 145.58 High Dec 31 2014
• RES 2: 145.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 144.25/58 High Jun 8 / 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
• PRICE: 141.50 @ 06:55 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 140.80 Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: 140.00 High Apr 21 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 139.15 20-day EMA
• SUP 4: 138.32 High May 9

EURJPY remains below last week’s high of 144.25 on Jun 8. The recent pullback is considered corrective. The latest rally above 140.00 confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Mar 7. Moving average studies also point north, reinforcing current conditions and signalling scope for a continuation higher. The focus is on 144.58 next, a Fibonacci projection and 145.00 is also within range. Firm short-term support is seen at 140.00.

AUDUSD TECHS: Starts The Week On A Softer Note

• RES 4: 0.7465 76.4% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.7400 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.7343 61.8% retracement of the Apr 5 - May 12 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.7171/7283 50-day EMA / High Jun 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.7027 @ 07:00 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 0.7001 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.6950 Low May 18
• SUP 3: 0.6829 Low May 12 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020

AUDUSD has traded lower today resulting in an extended break of the 50-day EMA. Last week’s sell-off threatens the recent bull cycle. Price action has defined a key short-term resistance at 0.7283, Jun 3 high. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish outlook. An extension lower would expose support at 0.6950, May 18 low ahead of the bear trigger at 0.6829, May 12 low. A breach of this level would resume the broader downtrend.

USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Reversal Exposes Resistance

• RES 4: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.2982 High May 16
• RES 2: 1.2896 High May 18 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 1.2849 High May 26
• PRICE: 1.2806 @ 08:08 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 1.2681/2518 Low Jun 10 / Low Jun 8 and key support
• SUP 2: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
• SUP 3: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and key support
• SUP 4: 1.2387/74 Low Nov 10. 2021 / 2.0% 10-dma env

A sharp rally in USDCAD last week has cemented a short-term reversal. Key near-term support has been defined at 1.2518, the Jun 8 low. The extension signals potential for a climb towards resistance at 1.2896, the May 19 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness and a breach of 1.2518, would reinstate a bearish threat and expose 1.2459, Apr 21 low and 1.2403 further out, the Apr 5 low and a key support.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U2) Remains Weak

• RES 4: 152.34 Low May 18
• RES 3: 151.23 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 149.92/150.97 High Jun 7 / Low May 9
• RES 1: 148.51 High Jun 10
• PRICE: 146.59 @ 05:07 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 146.00 Round number support
• SUP 2: 145.85 1.764 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing
• SUP 3: 145.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 144.51 2.00 proj of the Apr 28 - May 9 - 12 price swing

A bearish theme and strong downward price pressure continued to deliver fresh lows last week in Bund futures. Trend conditions remain bearish. Price has recently cleared support at 150.97, May 9 low, and the 150.00 handle. This marked a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 146.00 next. Firm resistance is at 151.23, the 20-day EMA.

BOBL TECHS: (U2) Fresh Cycle Low

• RES 4: 124.783 20-day EMA
• RES 3: 124.490 High Jun 3
• RES 2: 124.190 High Jun 9
• RES 1: 123.280 High Jun 10
• PRICE: 122.180 @ 05:28 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 122.050 2.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 121.370 3.00 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 120.950 3.236 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 122.690 3.382 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing

Bobl futures remain soft with a fresh low print registered again today. The downtrend accelerated last week and this suggests scope for a continuation lower. The recent breach of 124.840, May 6 low confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and has maintained the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 122.050 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is still seen at 124.783, the 20-day EMA.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U2) Heads South

• RES 4: 109.445 Low May 18
• RES 3: 109.300 High Jun 2
• RES 2: 109.180 High Jun 3 and 9
• RES 1: 108.715 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 108.320 @ 05:34 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 108.287 2.50 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 108.214 2.618 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 108.122 2.764 proj of the May 12 - 18 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 108.000 Round number support

Bearish conditions continue to prevail and Schatz futures remain soft. Another fresh cycle low today reinforces the downtrend and confirms an extension of the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This also suggests scope for a continuation of the trend. The focus is on 108.287 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 109.180, the Jun 3 / 9 high.

GILT TECHS: (U2) Bear Leg Extends

• RES 4: 117.49 High May 31
• RES 3: 116.20 High Jun 1
• RES 2: 115.55 High Jun 6 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 114.86 High Jun 9
• PRICE: 113.04 @ Close Jun 10
• SUP 1: 112.57 3.00 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 112.10 3.236 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 112.00 Round number support
• SUP 4: 111.81 3.382 proj of the May 19 - 24 - 26 price swing

Gilt futures traded lower again Friday. The move down last week confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and an extension of the latest bear leg that began May 19. This also maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Price has cleared 115.00 and the focus is on 112.57 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 115.55, high Jun 6. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.

BTP TECHS: (U2) Bear Trend Intact

• RES 4: 125.13 Low May 24
• RES 3: 123.92 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 123.38 High Jun 7
• RES 1: 121.27 Low Jun 7
• PRICE: 118.46 @ Close Jun 10
• SUP 1: 118.11 2.50 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 2: 117.66 2.618 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 3: 117.09 2.764 proj of the May 12 - 24 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 117.00 Round number support

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bearish and last week’s strong sell-off reinforces this theme. The recent break of 123.88, May 9 low and a bear trigger, confirmed a resumption of the primary downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 120.00 has been cleared, the focus is on 117.66 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 123.38, the Jun 7 high.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Bearish Extension

• RES 4: 3888.00 High Apr 5
• RES 3: 3883.00 High Apr 21
• RES 2: 3857.00 High Jun 6 and key short-term resistance
• RES 1: 3738.70 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 3540.00 @ 05:49 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: 3520.00 Low May 12
• SUP 2: 3466.00 Low May 10 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: 3458.90 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 29 rally
• SUP 4: 3309.00 Low Mar 7 and major support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures have weakened again today as the contract extends the reversal from recent highs. The move lower lst week and today, threatens the recent bull theme. The pace of the sell-off signals potential for weakness towards key support and the bear trigger at 3466.00, May 10 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 3857.00, Jun 6 high. Initial resistance is seen at 3738.70, the 50-day EMA.

E-MINI S&P (U2): Approaching Its Bear Trigger

• RES 4: 4396.75 High Apr 22
• RES 3: 4308.50 High Apr 28
• RES 2: 4161.21/4204.75 50-day EMA / High May 31
• RES 1: 4071.26 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 3838.50@ 06:59 BST June 13
• SUP 1: 3810.00 Low May 20 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 3801.97 38.2% of the Mar ‘20 - Jan ‘22 bull leg (cont)
• SUP 3: 3794.75 0.50 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing
• SUP 4: 3697.99 0.618 proj of the Mar 29 - May 20 - 31 price swing

S&P E-Minis failed to overcome resistance at the 50-day EMA - the average intersects at 4161.21. Futures are weak again today, extending the latest reversal lower. The pullback paves the way for weakness towards the key support and bear trigger at 3810.00, May 20 low. A breach of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance, just above the 50-day EMA, is at 4204.75, May 31 high.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (Q2) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $126.95 - 1.764 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: $125.04 - 1.618 proj of the May 11 - 17 - 19 price swing
• RES 2: $124.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $124.40 - High Jun 8
• PRICE: $119.85 @ 07:04 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: $116.26 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $112.45 - Low Jun 2
• SUP 3: $110.12 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $103.84 - Low May 19 and a key support

Brent futures have pulled back from recent highs. The outlook remains bullish and a positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact - the definition of an uptrend. Scope is seen for a test of the contract high of 124.42 on Mar 7. A break would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. On the downside, the 20-day EMA, at $116.26, is seen as initial firm support. A break would suggest scope for a deeper corrective pullback.

WTI TECHS: (N2) Uptrend Still Intact

• RES 4: $125.73 - 1.382 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 3: $124.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 2: $123.35 - 1.236 proj of the May 11 - 17 -19 price swing
• RES 1: $123.18 - High Jun 7
• PRICE: $118.45 @ 07:47 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: $117.14/114.77 - Low Jun 7 / 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $108.00 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $103.24 - Low May 19 and a key support
• SUP 4: $100.00 - Round number support

WTI futures remain in an uptrend and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Futures on May 31, breached resistance at $116.43, Mar 7 high and a former contract high. This confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and paved the way for an extension higher. The contract has also traded above the psychological $120.00 handle, strengthening current trend conditions. Firm support is seen at $114.77, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Challenges The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: $1909.8 - High May 5
• RES 3: $1899.0 - Trendline resistance drawn from the Mar 8 high
• RES 2: $1874.1 - High May 24
• RES 1: $1878.4 - 50-day EMA
• PRICE: $1865.3 @ 07:23 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: $1825.3 - Low Jun 10
• SUP 2: $1807.5/1787.0 - Low May 18 / Low May 16 and bear trigger
• SUP 3: $1780.4 - Low Jan 28 and a key support
• SUP 4: $1753.7 - Low Dec 15 2021

The short-term outlook in Gold is bullish and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at $1871.7. The yellow metal has tested levels above the average, a clear break is still required to signal scope for a stronger rally towards trendline resistance at $1899.0. The trendline is drawn from the Mar 8 high. Note that recent gains are still considered corrective and the primary trend direction is down. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on $1787.0.

SILVER TECHS: Monitoring Support

• RES 4: $24.666 - High Apr 22
• RES 3: $23.974 - Low Mar 29
• RES 2: $22.715 - 50-day EMA
• RES 1: $22.517 - High Jun 6
• PRICE: $21.589 @ 08:01 BST Jun 13
• SUP 1: $21.279/20.464 - Low Jun 10 / Low May 13 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: $20.282 - 2.00 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing
• SUP 3: $20.000 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $19.581 - 2.236 proj of the Mar 8 - 29 - Apr 18 price swing

Silver remains below its recent highs. The metal recently tested levels above resistance at $22.446, May 27 high. A clear break of this level is still required to suggest scope for an extension higher that would open the 50-day EMA at $22.715. For bears, a stronger resumption of weakness would signal potential for a move towards key support and the bear trigger at $20.464, the May 13 low. Initial support to watch is $21.279, the Jun 10 low.