MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bonds Retain ST Bullish Tone

Price Signal Summary – Bonds Retain Short-Term Bullish Tone

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone and this week's pullback is likely a correction. Another all-time high print was registered Nov 5. Continued gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective and appears to be a shallow correction. The recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger strengthened the bullish theme.
• In FX, EURUSD is consolidating and price remains above 1.1514, the Nov 5 low The short-term outlook remains bearish. Last week's print below 1.1524, Oct 12 low highlights a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the downward price sequence within the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. GBPUSD has this week retraced part of last week's bear leg. The outlook remains bearish and note yesterday's candle pattern - a doji - is a bearish pattern and signals the end of the most recent corrective bounce. USDJPY maintains a softer short-term tone, having started the week on a bearish note. Tuesday's move lower resulted in a break of support at 113.00, the Oct 12 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold is holding onto the bulk of recent gains and the outlook remains positive following last week's bounce from $1759.0, Nov 3 low. WTI futures maintain this week's positive tone and the contract has traded higher today. Price is approaching a key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.41, Oct 25 high.
• In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher yesterday to confirm an extension of last week's gains. The recent breach of resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high and the break of the 50-day EMA highlights a bullish theme. Gilt futures maintain a short-term bullish tone. Last week's rally reinforced a recent bullish signal that highlighted a reversal - the break and close above 125.27, Oct 14 high confirmed a double bottom reversal pattern on Oct 27.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Inside Its Channel

• RES 4: 1.1821 High Sep 16
• RES 3: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 2: 1.1665/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 1: 1.1617 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 1.1579 @ 06:04 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 1.1514 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 1.1493 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.1469 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1325 Bear channel base drawn from the Jun 1 high

EURUSD is consolidating and price remains above 1.1514, the Nov 5 low The short-term outlook remains bearish. Last week's print below 1.1524, Oct 12 low highlights a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the downward price sequence within the bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. The focus is on 1.1493 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. 1.1617, Nov 4 high marks the first resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Doji Candle

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 1.3691 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3606/07 Low Nov 2 / High Nov 9
• PRICE: 1.3554 @ 06:13 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 1.3412 Low Sep 29 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3357/54 2.0% 10-dma env / Low Dec 23, 2020
• SUP 3: 1.3334 1.00 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3304 Low ec 22, 2020

GBPUSD has this week retraced part of last week's bear leg. The outlook remains bearish and note yesterday's candle pattern - a doji - is a bearish pattern and signals the end of the most recent corrective bounce. Last week's break of 1.3544, Oct 6 low strengthens the S/T case for bears and highlights a likely resumption of the broader downtrend. The focus is on the bear trigger at 1.3412. The 50-day EMA at 1.3691 marks initial firm resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.8658 High Sep 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8624 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 0.8598 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• PRICE: 0.8545 @ 06:18 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 0.8514 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8463/41 Low Nov 3 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 0.8403 Low Oct 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8356 Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP remains below last week's high of 0.8595 on Nov 5. The recent rally confirmed a breach of the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this EMA has improved short-term conditions for bulls and signals scope for an extension higher. 0.8561, 61.8% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off, has been cleared and this opens 0.8598, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at 0.8463, Nov 3 low.

USDJPY TECHS: Corrective Cycle

• RES 4: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 3: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 2: 114.70/73 High Oct 20 / High Nov 6, 2017
• RES 1: 113.37/114.44 20-day EMA / High Nov 1
• PRICE: 112.90 @ 06:23 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 112.36 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.51 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11

USDJPY maintains a softer short-term tone, having started the week on a bearish note. Tuesday's move lower resulted in a break of support at 113.00, the Oct 12 low. The breach of this support signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 112.08, Sep 30 high. This short-term sell-off is still considered corrective and is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The trigger for a resumption of the uptrend is 114.70, Oct 20 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Correction Extends

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.92/133.48 High Oct 29 / High Oct 20
• RES 1: 131.55 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 130.71 @ 06:30 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 130.65 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 130.05 61.8% retracement of the Sep 22 - Oct 20 rally
• SUP 3: 129.28 Low Oct 11
• SUP 4: 128.94 Low Oct 8

EURJPY maintains a weaker S/T tone and has traded lower today. The cross has recently breached its 50- and 20-day EMAs suggesting scope for a deeper corrective pullback. Support at 130.75, Sep 3 high has been probed and the focus is on 130.05, a Fibonacci retracement. Broader trend signals continue to point north and the recent sell-off is considered corrective.

AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Short-Term Low

• RES 4: 0.7630 1.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 - Sep 29 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 2: 0.7550/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 1: 0.7432/7471 High Nov 9 / High Nov 4
• PRICE: 0.7358 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 0.7353 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 0.7317 61.8% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 28 rally
• SUP 3: 0.7261 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 28 rally
• SUP 4: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29

AUDUSD is trading lower again today as the pair extends the recent bout of vulnerability. The continued short-term weakness suggests scope for a deeper pullback and has opened 0.7317, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that the recent move lower is considered corrective. The recent breach of 0.7546, Oct 21 high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and has exposed the 200-dma at 0.7550. A break of the 200-dma would be bullish.

USDCAD TECHS: Consolidation Mode

• RES 4: 1.2775 High Sep 29
• RES 3: 1.2648 High Oct 6
• RES 2: 1.2562 High Oct 8
• RES 1: 1.2487/94 50-day EMA / Low Sep 3 and recent breakout level
• PRICE: 1.2433 @ 06:44 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 1.2352 Low Nov 1
• SUP 2: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

No change in USDCAD as the pair continues to consolidate. Recent gains are considered corrective and the recent recovery still appears to be a bear flag. If correct, it reinforces underlying bearish conditions and signals scope for a break lower near-term. A bearish theme follows the recent breach of the Jul 30 low of 1.2422 that has opened 1.2253 next, Jun 23 low. MA conditions remain in a bear mode. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2494.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Fresh Short-Term High

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 2: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 171.44 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 171.25 @ 05:18 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020 (cont)

Bund futures traded higher yesterday to confirm an extension of last week's gains. The recent breach of resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high and the break of the 50-day EMA highlights a bullish theme. This signals scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce. 171.14, 50.0% of the Aug - Nov sell-off has been breached and attention is on 171.95, the 76.4% level. On the downside, initial support is at 170.06.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Bull Tone Remains Intact

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 2: 135.380 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 135.220 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 135.180 @ 05:25 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 134.867/320 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)
• SUP 4: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

The Bobl futures near-term outlook remains bullish and last week's rally means the contract has established a short-term positive tone. Attention is on resistance at 135.20, Sep 17 low, Oct 4 high plus Friday's high. It has been probed, a clear break would open 135.540, Sep 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.320, Nov 3 low. Note, the recent recovery is still considered corrective and the primary trend direction remains down.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Holding Onto Gains

• RES 4: 112.415 High Aug 5 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 3: 112.370 High Aug 20
• RES 2: 112.340 Aug 31 high
• RES 1: 112.310 High Nov 10
• PRICE: 112.295 @ 05:27 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 112.197/100 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 112.050/111.945 Low Nov 2 / Low Oct 28
• SUP 3: 111.925 1.236 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 111.897 1.382 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing

A sharp rally in Schatz futures last week means the contract has established a corrective bullish short-term cycle. This theme remains intact with the contract edging higher again yesterday. Attention is on resistance at 112.290, Sep 20 high. It has been probed, a clear break would pave the way for strength towards 112.340, Aug 31 high. Gains are still considered corrective though and the broader trend direction is down. Initial firm support is 112.100.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Short-Term Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10 and 14
• RES 3: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 127.29 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 127.19 @ Close Nov 9
• SUP 1: 125.92 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures maintain a short-term bullish tone. Last week's rally reinforced a recent bullish signal that highlighted a reversal - the break and close above 125.27, Oct 14 high confirmed a double bottom reversal pattern on Oct 27. With a number of important short-term resistance levels cleared, attention is on 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Initial key support has been defined at 124.25, Nov 1 low. First support though is at 125.92, the 50-day EMA.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Extends Gains

• RES 4: 155.14 High Aug 31
• RES 3: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 1: 153.06 High Nov 9
• PRICE: 152.90 @ Close Nov 9
• SUP 1: 151.35/149.89 20-day EMA / Nov 3 low
• SUP 2: 148.14/147.12 Low Nov 2 / Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 146.65 1.618 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 146.12 1.764 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing

BTP futures traded higher yesterday. Last week's rally confirmed a short-term bull cycle and this week's breach of 152.54, Oct 14 high reinforces this condition. The break strengthens the short-term case for bulls and opens 153.59 next, Sep 24 high. Initial firm support is seen at 149.89, Nov 3 low. Key support has been defined at 147.12, Nov 1 low. The broader trend direction remains bearish though and recent gains are considered corrective.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Shallow Correction

• RES 4: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 3: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4371.00 1.236 proj of Jul 19-Sep 6-Oct 6 2020 swing (cont)
• RES 1: 4367.00 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 4327.50 @ 05:56 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 4223.50 High Sep 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 4173.10 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3902.50 Low Jul 20

EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains intact and the recent pullback is considered corrective and appears to be a shallow correction. The recent breach of 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former bull trigger strengthened the bullish theme. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and attention is on 4371.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. The 50-day EMA, at 4173.10, remains a key support. A break is required to signal a potential top.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Bullish Sentiment Remains Intact

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4746.68 1.618 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 1.50 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4671.50 @ 07:01 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: 4650.75/4586.50 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 2: 4543.75 Low Oct 27
• SUP 3: 4496.06/ 4472.00 50-day EMA / High Sep 27
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone and this week's pullback is likely a correction. Another all-time high print was registered Nov 5. Continued gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies remain in a bull mode, reinforcing current conditions and market sentiment. The 50-day EMA at 4496.06 continues to represent a key support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Approaching Key Resistance

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $87.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $85.77 - High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $85.29 @ 06:59 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $82.94/80.20 - 20-day EMA / Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: $79.66 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $78.42 - Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: $75.80 - Low Sep 30

Brent futures have continued their climb this week and the contract is approaching key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.77, Oct 25 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.73, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $80.20 Nov 4 low.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Extends This Week's Recovery

• RES 4: $88.96 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $84.97/85.41 - Intraday high / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $84.51 @ 07:08 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $81.50/78.25 - 20-day EMA / Low Nov 4 and key support
• SUP 2: $77.77- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $72.82 - Low Sep 30

WTI futures maintain this week's positive tone and the contract has traded higher today. Price is approaching a key resistance and the bull trigger at $85.41, Oct 25 high. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and resume the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This would open $87.45, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at $78.25 Nov 4 low.

GOLD TECHS: Positive Short-Term Outlook

• RES 4: $1877.7 - High Jun 14
• RES 3: $1863.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
• RES 2: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 1: $1834.0 - High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1825.1 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $1786.5/1759.0 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10

Gold is holding onto the bulk of recent gains and the outlook remains positive following last week's bounce from $1759.0, Nov 3 low. The turnaround reinstates a potential bullish outlook and the yellow metal has traded above $1813.8, Oct 22 high. The breach of this level strengthens a short-term bullish case and signals scope for a climb towards $1834.0, the Sep 3 high. Key short-term support is at $1759.0, a break would be bearish.

SILVER TECHS: Trading Between Its Key S/T Directional Triggers

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Aug 4
• RES 3: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: $24.828 - High Oct 22
• PRICE: $24.313 @ 07:21 GMT Nov 10
• SUP 1: $23.020 - Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Silver is consolidating and remains above last week's low. Recent price action has defined key short-term directional triggers at; $23.020, Nov 3 low and $24.828, the Oct 22 high. A breach of resistance would confirm a resumption of the underlying uptrend with $24.867, Sep 23 high also marking an important bull trigger. For bears, weakness through $23.020 would expose $22.213, Oct 6 low.