MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Downtrend Extends

Price Signal Summary – Bund Downtrend Extends

• S&P E-Minis delivered a fresh trend high on Friday, reinforcing the current bullish tone following the reversal on Mar 15. The contract has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the latter average is an important short-term bullish development. EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade inside its current range and the recent consolidation still appears to be a bull flag - a continuation pattern that reinforces current bullish conditions. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 3863.20. This average represents an important resistance.
• EURUSD has started the week on a softer note and has breached support at 1.0961, the Mar 22 low. The break lower reinforces short-term bearish conditions following the recent pullback from 1.1137, Mar 17 high. USDJPY has started the week on a firm note and traded to a fresh trend high, confirming a resumption of its uptrend. Current momentum suggests the USD still has the potential to extend this bull cycle, although it is worth noting that the pair is extremely overbought on the daily frequency. AUDUSD maintains a bullish tone and continues to trade near its recent peak, YTD high and multi-month highs. Last week’s important technical break was the move above 0.7441, Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low.
• WTI futures remain in an uptrend following recent gains and the strong reversal from $92.20, Mar 15 low. S/T dips are considered corrective. The recent climb from $92.20 means the 50-day EMA, at $96.05, remains intact and that this average still represents a key support. The short-term outlook in Gold remains bearish following the recent sharp pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind.
• Bunds are softer this morning and remain in a downtrend. The contract last week traded through the psychological 160.00 handle. The continuation lower confirmed an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bearish and the recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag - a continuation pattern that reinforces current conditions. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger, at 121.10, Feb 6 low.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Trades Through Last Week’s Low

• RES 4: 1.1232 61.8% of Feb 10 - Mar 7 sell-off
• RES 3: 1.1159/1230 50-day EMA / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1137 High Mar 17 and key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 1.1050 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.0952 @ 06:15 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 1.0926 Low Mar 15
• SUP 2: 1.0890/06 Low Mar 9 / Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0767 Low May 7 2020
• SUP 4: 1.0727 Low Apr 24, 2020

EURUSD has started the week on a softer note and has breached support at 1.0961, the Mar 22 low. The break lower reinforces short-term bearish conditions following the recent pullback from 1.1137, Mar 17 high. An extension lower would open 1.0890, the Mar 9 low and 1.0806, the Mar 7 low and bear trigger. Key short-term resistance is at 1.1137. A break of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

GBPUSD TECHS: Eyeing Support

• RES 4: 1.3492 76.4% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 15 downleg
• RES 3: 1.3439 High Feb 25
• RES 2: 1.3331 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3225/98 High Mar 25 and 23
• PRICE: 1.3144 @ 06:22 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 1.3120/3000 Low Mar 22 / Low Mar 15 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.2954 1.764 proj of the Jan 13 - 27 - Feb 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.2933 Low Nov 5 2020
• SUP 4: 1.2855 Low Nov 2 2020 and a key support

GBPUSD remains below last week’s high of 1.3298 (Mar 23). The pair has failed to remain above the 20-day EMA and the 1.0% 10-dma envelope (at 1.3257) - both were breached last week. The pullback also means a key resistance at 1.3331, the 50-day EMA, remains intact. Watch support at 1.3120, the Mar 22 low. A break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Clearance of the 50-day EMA is required to reinstate a bullish theme.

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Threat Still Present

• RES 4: 0.8498/8539 High Dec 23 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 0.8478 High Feb 7
• RES 2: 0.8458 High Mar 17 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: 0.8374 High Mar 22
• PRICE: 0.8330@ 06:30 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 0.8296 Low Mar 23
• SUP 2: 0.8278 Low Mar 7
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8131 Low Jun 27, 2016

EURGBP is consolidating. The recent pullback highlights a bearish threat and has exposed support at 0.8278, Mar 7 low. Clearance of this level would sugges a stronger bearish reversal and expose key short-term support at 0.8203, Mar 7 low. The cross remains below both the 20- and 50-day EMAs reinforcing a bearish theme. For bulls, a recovery would refocus attention on 0.8458, Mar 17 high. A break would be a positive development.

USDJPY TECHS: Northbound

• RES 4: 124.81 3.00projection of the Dec 3 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing
• RES 3: 124.63 High Aug 13 2015
• RES 2: 123.76 High Nov 18 2015
• RES 1: 123.37 2.618 projection of the Dec 3 - Jan 4 - 24 price swing
• PRICE: 123.01 @ 05:46 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 121.97 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 120.95/120.00 Low Mar 24 / Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.04 Low Mar 21
• SUP 4: 118.55 20-day EMA

USDJPY has started the week on a firm note and traded to a fresh trend high, confirming a resumption of its uptrend. Current momentum suggests the USD still has the potential to extend this bull cycle, although it is worth noting that the pair is extremely overbought on the daily frequency. Upside targets shift higher to 123.76, the Nov 18 2015 high ahead of 124.63, the Aug 13 2015 high. Last Thursday’s low of 120.95 is seen as a firm near-term support.

EURJPY TECHS: Maintains Its Current Bullish Form

• RES 4: 137.50 High Feb 2 2018 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 135.33 3.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 135.85 High Feb 7 2018
• RES 1: 135.21 123.6% retracement of the Feb 10 - Mar 7 downleg
• PRICE: 134.81 @ 06:41 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 132.95/33 Low Mar 24 / 23
• SUP 2: 130.98 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 130.23 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 129.27 Low Mar 15

EURJPY has traded to a fresh trend high today, resuming its current uptrend and maintains its current bullish form. The cross cleared a key resistance last week at 134.13, the Jun 1 2021 high. This strengthens the bullish condition and attention is on the Feb 7 2018 high of 135.85 and the 3.0% 10-dma envelope at 135.95. The RSI is approaching overbought territory for the first time since early February. Initial firm support is seen at 132.33, Mar 23 low.

AUDUSD TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 0.7617 High Jun 25
• RES 3: 0.7599 High Jul 6 2021
• RES 2: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.7534/37 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Mar 25
• PRICE: 0.7516 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 0.7450/7376 Low Mar 23 / Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 0.7360 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.7281 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support

AUDUSD maintains a bullish tone and continues to trade near its recent peak, YTD high and multi-month highs. Last week’s important technical break was the move above 0.7441, Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low. This reinforces the current bull cycle that began Jan 28. The break of 0.7441 signals scope for a climb towards 0.7556, the Oct 28 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.7376.

USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed

• RES 4: 1.2924 High Dec 22
• RES 3: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.2778 High Mar 16
• RES 1: 1.2553/2651 High Mar 25 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.2498 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 1.2466 Low Mar 25
• SUP 2: 1.2454 Low Jan 19 and a key support
• SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021
• SUP 4: 1.2328 Low Oct 29 2021

USDCAD traded to a new cycle low Friday. Last week’s move lower and most recently, a break of 1.2552, 76.4% of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally, reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on the next key support at 1.2451, the Jan 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2651, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease current bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (M2) Fresh Cycle Low Once Again

• RES 4: 163.20 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 164.43 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 162.73 High Mar 14
• RES 1: 160.31/161.73 High Mar 23 / 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 158.15 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 157.70 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 157.33 Low Oct 10 2018 (cont)
• SUP 3: 156.88 Low Mar 8 2018 (cont)
• SUP 4: 156.55 Low Dec 8 2015 (cont)

Bunds are softer this morning and remain in a downtrend. The contract last week traded through the psychological 160.00 handle. The continuation lower confirmed an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs that has unfolded since Aug / Sep 2019. With bearish momentum conditions dominating, the focus is on 157.33 next, Oct 10 2018 low (cont). Firm resistance is at 160.31.

BOBL TECHS: (M2) Resumes Its Downtrend

• RES 4: 131.550 High Mar 11
• RES 3: 130.870 High Mar 18
• RES 2: 130.745 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 129.770 High Mar 25
• PRICE: 128.740 @ 05:17 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 128.670 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 128.340 Low Sep 17 2015 (cont)
• SUP 3: 128.000 Round number support
• SUP 4: 127.750 Low Jun 5 2015 (cont)

Bobl futures are trading lower again and start the week on a softer note with bearish momentum conditions still dominating. This has again confirmed a resumption of the underlying downtrend and maintains the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The break lower paves the way for a move towards 128.340 next, the Sep 14 2015 low (cont). The 20-day EMA at 130.780 is seen as a firm resistance.

SCHATZ TECHS: (M2) Bearish Conditions

• RES 4: 111.430 High Mar 18
• RES 3: 111.327 20-day EMA
• RES 2: 111.170 High Mar 23
• RES 1: 110.915 Intraday high
• PRICE: 110.795 @ 05:35 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 110.775 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 110.602 38.2% retracement of the 2011 - 2020 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 110.590 Low Jun 10/11 2014 (cont)
• SUP 4: 110.475 Low May 12 2014 (cont)

Schatz futures remain vulnerable and have resumed their downtrend today. The continued move lower strengthens bearish conditions and confirms a resumption of the underlying downtrend plus, it marks an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. 111.00 has been cleared and this paves the way for a move towards 110.602, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 111.170.

GILT TECHS: (M2) Bear Flag

• RES 4: 124.60 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 123.52 High Mar 9
• RES 2: 122.72 High Mar 18 and a key near-term resistance
• RES 1: 122.01 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 120.64 @ Close Mar 25
• SUP 1: 120.26 Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 120.00 Round number support
• SUP 3: 119.75 123.6% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb
• SUP 4: 118.92 138.2% retracement of the Feb 15 - Mar 1 climb

Trend conditions in Gilt futures remain bearish and the recent consolidation appears to be a bear flag - a continuation pattern that reinforces current conditions. Last week’s move lower resulted in a break of key support and the bear trigger, at 121.10, Feb 6 low. This marks a resumption of the broader downtrend and opens 120.00. Price action has defined a key short-term resistance at 122.72, Mar 18 high. A break is required to suggest a base.

BTP TECHS: (M2) Bearish Conditions Dominate

• RES 4: 145.06 High Mar 8
• RES 3: 143.85 High Mar 10
• RES 2: 142.51 Low Mar 1
• RES 1: 140.44 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 138.10 @ Close Mar 25
• SUP 1: 138.10 Low Mar 28
• SUP 2: 137.52 Low May 18 2020 (cont)
• SUP 3: 136.86 Low May 13 2020 (cont)
• SUP 4: 136.13 61.8% retracement of the Mar ‘19 - Aug ‘21 bull cycle

BTP futures remain vulnerable and the trend remains bearish. The contract traded lower last week and cleared key support at 138.60, Feb 16 low and a bear trigger. The break confirms a resumption of the downtrend and highlights an extension of the broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The focus is on 137.52, the May 18 2020 low on the continuation chart. Firm resistance is seen at 140.21, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

E-MINI S&P (M2): Bull Theme Intact

• RES 4: 4730.50 High Jan 1
• RES 3: 4663.50 High Jan 18
• RES 2: 4578.50 High Feb 9 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 4540.00 Intraday high
• PRICE: 4516.50 @ 08:04 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 4390.96 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4129.50/4094.25 Low Mar 15 / Low Feb 24 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4055.60 Low May 19 2021 (cont)
• SUP 4: 4029.25 Low May 13 2021 (cont)

S&P E-Minis delivered a fresh trend high on Friday, reinforcing the current bullish tone following the reversal on Mar 15. The contract has recently cleared both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The breach of the latter average is an important short-term bullish development and the extension higher has opened 4578.50, the Feb 9 high. Initial support is at 4390.96, the 20-day EMA. A break would be seen as a bearish development.

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (M2) Consolidating Ahead Of The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 4132.00 High Feb 10
• RES 3: 4072.00 High Feb 16
• RES 2: 3965.50 High Feb 23
• RES 1: 3863.20/3866.00 50-day EMA / High Mar 23
• PRICE: 3795.00 @ 05:50 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: 3555.50 Low Mar 15 and a key near-term support
• SUP 2: 3455.00 Low Mar 9
• SUP 3: 3441.50 Low Mar 7 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3379.00 Low Dec 21 2020 (cont)

EUROSTOXX 50 futures continue to trade inside its current range and the recent consolidation still appears to be a bull flag - a continuation pattern that reinforces current bullish conditions. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at 3863.20. This average represents an important resistance. If cleared, it would further strengthen a bullish short-term theme and open 3965.50. Support to watch lies at 3555.50 Mar 15 low. A break would be a bearish development.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (K2) Pullback Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $139.13 - High Mar 7 and key resistance
• RES 3: $133.15 - High Mar 8
• RES 2: $129.17 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 16 downleg
• RES 1: $123.74 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $116.49 @ 06:59 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $110.37 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $100.90/96.93 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 16
• SUP 3: $92.75 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $88.25 - Low Feb 18

Brent futures maintain a firmer tone despite the recent pullback from 123.74, Mar 24 high. The contract recently found support ahead of the 50-day EMA that intersects at $100.90 today. Price then cleared resistance at 113.91, Mar 11 high. The break has strengthened bullish conditions and signals scope for a stronger short-term climb towards 129.17 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial form support is seen at 110.37, the 20-day EMA.

WTI TECHS: (K2) Short-Term Trend Structure Remains Bullish

• RES 4: $126.42 - High Mar 7 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: $122.73 - High Mar 9
• RES 2: $118.34 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 7 - 15 downleg
• RES 1: $116.64 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $109.78 @ 07:12 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $104.70 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: $96.05/92.20 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 15
• SUP 3: $88.49 - Low Feb 25
• SUP 4: $85.81 - Low Feb 18

WTI futures remain in an uptrend following recent gains and the strong reversal from $92.20, Mar 15 low. S/T dips are considered corrective. The recent climb from $92.20 means the 50-day EMA, at $96.05, remains intact and that this average still represents a key support. The focus is on 118.34, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a breach of the 50-day EMA would reinstate a bearish theme. Initial support is seen at $104.70, the 20-day EMA.

GOLD TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish

• RES 4: $2104.6 - 3.236 proj of the Dec 15 - Jan 25 - 28 price swing
• RES 3: $2075.5 - High Aug 7 2020 and the all-time high
• RES 2: $2009.2/2070.4 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8
• RES 1: $1966.1 - High Mar 24
• PRICE: $1936.0 @ 07:13 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $1901.9/1895.3 - 50-day EMA / Low Mar 16
• SUP 2: $1878.4 - Low Feb 24 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: $1848.8 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 28 - Mar 8 rally
• SUP 4: $1821.1 - Low Feb 11

The short-term outlook in Gold remains bearish following the recent sharp pullback from the Mar 8 high of $2070.4. The move lower is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. Key support is seen at the 50-day EMA that intersects at $1901.9 - just ahead of the recent low of $1895.3 on Mar 15. A break of the EMA would signal scope for a deeper pullback. Firm short-term resistance is seen at $2009.2, Mar 10 high. Initial resistance is at $1966.1.

SILVER TECHS: Bearish Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16 2021
• RES 3: $27.245 - High Jun 17 2021
• RES 2: $27.000 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $26.063/943 - High Mar 10 / High Mar 8 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $25.087 @ 08:06 GMT Mar 28
• SUP 1: $24.473/471 - Low Mar 16 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $23.850 - Low Feb 24
• SUP 3: $22.863 - Low Feb 11
• SUP 4: $22.008 - Low Feb 3 and a key support

Silver gains last week stalled at $24.847, the Mar 24 high. A short-term bearish theme remains intact and potential is seen for a deeper retracement. Attention is on the 50-day EMA at $24.471. This EMA marks an important support and a break would signal scope for an extension lower. For bulls, a move above $26.00 would refocus attention on the key resistance at 26.943, the Mar 8 high.