MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bund Futures Breach 50-day EMA

Price Signal Summary - Bund Futures Breach 50-day EMA

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone and the contract continues to defy gravity. Another all-time high print was registered Friday. These continued gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. The EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains firmly intact. The contract has recently cleared former key resistance at 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former key bull trigger. The break of this hurdle confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and attention is on 4371.00 next, a Fibonacci projection.
• In FX, EURUSD traded lower Friday and through key support at 1.1524, Oct 12 low. The print below this support highlights a resumption of the underlying downtrend. GBPUSD traded sharply lower Thursday and remains weak. The break lower last week confirms a resumption of the recent sell-off and resulted in a breach of support at 1.3544, Oct 6 low. The break of this level strengthens the short-term case for bears and highlights a likely resumption of the broader downtrend.
• On the commodity front, Gold reversed course Thursday and rebounded off Wednesday's low of $1759.0. The turnaround reinstates a potential bullish outlook and the yellow metal has traded above $1813.8, Oct 22 high. WTI futures maintain a bearish tone despite the bounce off last week's low. The Nov 3-4 sell-off resulted in a breach of support at $80.58, Oct 28 low and note that price also cleared the 20-day EMA.
• In the FI space, Bund futures traded higher again Friday. Last week's gains resulted in a break of resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high. Note too that futures have also cleared the 50-day EMA. Gilt futures traded sharply higher again Friday. This reinforces a recent bullish signal that highlighted a reversal - the break and close above 125.27, Oct 14 high confirmed a double bottom reversal pattern on Oct 27.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Risk Remains Present

• RES 4: 1.1821 High Sep 16
• RES 3: 1.17155 / High Sep 22
• RES 2: 1.1676/92 Bear channel top from Jun 1 high / High Oct 28
• RES 1: 1.1617 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 1.1564 @ 06:06 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 1.1514 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 1.1493 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Jan '21 bull phase
• SUP 3: 1.1469 1.236 proj of the Jan 6 - Mar 31 - May 25 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.1336 Bear channel base drawn from the Jun 1 high

EURUSD traded lower Friday and through key support at 1.1524, Oct 12 low. The print below this support highlights a resumption of the underlying downtrend. Furthermore, it reinforces the bearish engulfing reversal candle on Oct 29 and maintains the downward price sequence within its bear channel drawn from the Jun 1 high. The focus is on 1.1493 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. 1.1617, Nov 4 high marks initial resistance.

GBPUSD TECHS: Eyeing Key Support

• RES 4: 1.3913 High Sep 14 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20
• RES 2: 1.3702 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3606 Low Nov 2
• PRICE: 1.3490 @ 06:11 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 1.3412 Low Sep 29 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.3398 2.0% 10-dma env
• SUP 3: 1.3354 Low Dec 23, 2020
• SUP 4: 1.3334 1.00 proj of the Sep 14 - 29 - Oct 20 price swing

GBPUSD traded sharply lower Thursday and remains weak. The break lower last week confirms a resumption of the recent sell-off and resulted in a breach of support at 1.3544, Oct 6 low. The break of this level strengthens the short-term case for bears and highlights a likely resumption of the broader downtrend. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 1.3412. The 50-day EMA at 1.3702 marks initial firm resistance.

EURGBP TECHS: Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 0.8670 High Jul 20
• RES 3: 0.8658 High Sep 29 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8624 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 0.8598 76.4% retracement of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off
• PRICE: 0.8574 @ 06:15 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 0.8511 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8463/41 Low Nov 3 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 0.8403 Low Oct 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 0.8388/56 1.0% 10-dma envelope / Low Feb 26, 2020

EURGBP continued its push higher Friday before facing some resistance. The recent break to the upside confirmed a breach of the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this EMA has improved short-term conditions for bulls and signals scope for an extension higher. 0.8561, 61.8% of the Sep 29 - Oct 26 sell-off, has been cleared. The breach opens 0.8598, the 76.4% retracement. Initial firm support lies at Thursday's intraday low of 0.8463.

USDJPY TECHS: Support Zone Remains Intact

• RES 4: 116.08 1.764 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 3: 115.51 High Mar 10, 2017
• RES 2: 114.99 1.50 proj of Apr 23 - Jul 2 - Aug 4 price swing
• RES 1: 114.70/73 High Oct 20 / High Nov 6, 2017
• PRICE: 113.59@ 06:21 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 113.44/00 20-day EMA / Low Oct 12
• SUP 2: 112.08 High Sep 30 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 111.51 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 110.82/80 Low Oct 4 / High Aug 11

USDJPY traded lower Friday but remains in a consolidation mode. Attention is still on 113.44, the 20-day EMA (probed Friday) and 113.00, the Oct 12 low. A break of this support zone would signal scope for a deeper pullback and open 112.08, Sep 30 high. Any deeper short-term sell-off however would be considered corrective. Primary trend conditions remain bullish and the trigger for a resumption of the uptrend is 114.70, Oct 20 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Testing The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 134.13 High Jun 1 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 133.76 High Jun 10
• RES 2: 132.92/133.48 High Oct 29 / High Oct 20
• RES 1: 131.66 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 131.40 @ 06:40 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 130.84 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 130.75 High Sep 3 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 129.28 Low Oct 11
• SUP 4: 128.94 Low Oct 8

EURJPY traded lower again Friday and last week, the cross breached its 20-day EMA. The recent clear break of this EMA suggests scope for a deeper corrective pullback and exposes 130.75, Sep 3 high and a recent key breakout level. Note that 130.95 is where the 50-day EMA intersects - a key short-term support area that has been probed. Broader trend signals continue to point north however, the trigger for a resumption of the uptrend is 133.48.

AUDUSD TECHS: Probes Its 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 0.7630 1.236 proj of the Aug 20 - Sep 3 - Sep 29 price swing
• RES 3: 0.7599 High Jul 6
• RES 2: 0.7552/57 200-dma / 50.0% of the Feb - Aug sell-off
• RES 1: 0.7471 High Nov 4
• PRICE: 0.7402 @ 06:42 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 0.7397/60 50-day EMA / Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 0.7324 Low Oct 13
• SUP 3: 0.7288 Low Oct 8
• SUP 4: 0.7226/7170 Low Oct 6 / Low Sep 29

AUDUSD traded lower again Friday and the pair appears vulnerable for now. Dips though are still considered corrective. The recent breach of 0.7546, Oct 21 high confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and opens the 200-dma at 0.7552. Clearance of this average would strengthen bullish conditions and extend the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. For bears, a clear break of the 50-day EMA at 0.7397 would alter the picture.

USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Cycle Still In Play

• RES 4: 1.2648 High Oct 6
• RES 3: 1.2562 High Oct 8
• RES 2: 1.2491/94 50-day EMA / Low Sep 3 and recent breakout level
• RES 1: 1.2480 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 1.2447 @ 06:47 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 1.2352 Low Nov 1
• SUP 2: 1.2288 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.2253 Low Jun 23
• SUP 4: 1.2229 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally

USDCAD maintains the past week's firmer tone. Gains are considered corrective though and recent activity still appears to be a bear flag. If correct, it reinforces the underlying bearish conditions and signals scope for a break lower near-term. A bearish theme follows the recent breach of the Jul 30 low of 1.2422 that has opened 1.2253 next, Jun 23 low. Moving average conditions remain in a bear mode. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2494.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (Z1) Rally Extends

• RES 4: 172.12 High Sep 14
• RES 3: 171.95 61.8% retracement of the Aug - Nov sell-off
• RES 2: 171.72 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 171.24 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 170.98 @ 05:17 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 170.06 Low Nov 5
• SUP 2: 168.98 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 167.69 Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 167.52 Low Mar 19 2020 (cont)

Bund futures traded higher again Friday. Last week's gains resulted in a break of resistance at 169.83, Oct 27 high. Note too that futures have also cleared the 50-day EMA. The breach of both these levels suggest scope for a stronger short-term corrective bounce. 171.14, 50.0% of the Aug - Nov sell-off has been reached. This opens 171.95, the 76.4% level. On the downside, Initial support is at 170.06.

BOBL TECHS: (Z1) Holding Onto Recent Gains

• RES 4: 135.660 High Sep 9
• RES 3: 135.540 High Sep 21
• RES 2: 135.380 High Sep 23
• RES 1: 135.200 Low Sep 17, high Oct 4 and Friday's high
• PRICE: 135.120 @ 05:30 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 134.835/320 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 133.900/690 Low Nov 2
• SUP 3: 133.340 Low Mar 19 and key medium-term support (cont)
• SUP 4: 133.308 1.764 proj of the Oct 4 - 13 - 14 price swing

A sharp rally in Bobl futures last week means the contract has established a bullish short-term tone. Gains are still considered corrective however and the primary trend direction remains down. Attention for now though is on the upside and resistance at 135.20, Sep 17 low and Oct 4 high plus Friday's high. Clearance of this level would open 135.540, Sep 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support lies at 134.320, Nov 3 low.

SCHATZ TECHS: (Z1) Tests A Key Resistance

• RES 4: 112.370 High Aug 20
• RES 3: 112.340 Aug 31 high
• RES 2: 112.305 High Sep 3
• RES 1: 112.290 High Sep 20 and high Nov 5
• PRICE: 112.275 @ 05:37 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 112.186/100 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3
• SUP 2: 112.050/111.945 Low Nov 2 / Low Oct 28
• SUP 3: 111.925 1.236 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing
• SUP 4: 111.897 1.382 proj of the Oct 14 - 19 - 26 price swing

A sharp rally in Schatz futures last week means the contract has entered and established a corrective bullish short-term cycle. Attention is on resistance at 112.290, the Sep 20 high where a break would pave the way for strength towards 112.340, Aug 31 high. Gains are still considered corrective and the broader trend direction remains down. Initial firm support lies at 112.100, Nov 3 low.

GILT TECHS: (Z1) Bulls Still In Control

• RES 4: 128.18 High Sep 10 and 14
• RES 3: 127.95 76.4% retracement of the Aug - Oct downleg
• RES 2: 127.69 High Sep 21
• RES 1: 127.17 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 127.12 @ Close Nov 5
• SUP 1: 125.77 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 124.79/25 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 3: 123.43 Low Oct 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 123.16 Low Feb 27, 2019 (cont)

Gilt futures traded sharply higher again Friday. This reinforces a recent bullish signal that highlighted a reversal - the break and close above 125.27, Oct 14 high confirmed a double bottom reversal pattern on Oct 27. Last week's break of 125.87, Oct 27 high and the subsequent follow through signals scope for further gains. The focus is on 127.69 next, Sep 21 high. Initial key support has been defined at 124.25, Nov 1 low.

BTP TECHS: (Z1) Strong Corrective Rally Extends

• RES 4: 154.64 High Sep 22 / 23
• RES 3: 153.59 High Sep 24
• RES 2: 152.87 High Oct 1
• RES 1: 152.64 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 152.47 @ Close Nov 5
• SUP 1: 150.90/149.89 20-day EMA / Nov 3 low
• SUP 2: 148.14/147.12 Low Nov 2 / Low Nov 1 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 146.65 1.618 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing
• SUP 4: 146.12 1.764 proj of the Sep 23 - Oct 6 - 14 price swing

BTP futures traded higher again Friday. Gains last week confirm the contract has established a short-term bullish corrective cycle. Attention is on 152.54, the Oct 14 high where a clear break would strengthen the current bullish theme. This level was probed Friday. The broader trend direction remains bearish though. Initial firm support is seen at 149.89, the Nov 3 low. Key support has been defined at 147.12, Nov 1 low.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (Z1) Northbound

• RES 4: 4448.00 High Jan 2, 2008 (cont)
• RES 3: 4400.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4371.00 1.236 proj of Jul 19-Sep 6-Oct 6 2020 swing (cont)
• RES 1: 4367.00 High Nov 5
• PRICE: 4351.00 @ 05:58 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 4223.50 High Sep 6 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 4178.00/4159.00 Low Oct 29 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 4004.00 / 3949.50 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 6 and bear trigger
• SUP 4: 3902.50 Low Jul 20

The EUROSTOXX 50 futures uptrend remains firmly intact. The contract has recently cleared former key resistance at 4223.00, Sep 6 high and a former key bull trigger. The break of this hurdle confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and attention is on 4371.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, the 50-day EMA, at 4159.00, remains a key support. A break is required to signal a potential short-term top.

E-MINI S&P (Z1): Trend Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 4800.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 4783.40 1.764 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 2: 4746.68 1.618 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4717.00 1.50 proj of Jul 19 - Aug 16 - Aug 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4681.75 @ 06:51 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: 4650.75/4586.50 Low Nov 4 / Low Nov 1
• SUP 2: 4543.75/4472.00 Low Oct 27 / High Sep 27
• SUP 3: 4480.24 50-day EMA and key near-term support
• SUP 4: 4317.25/4260.00 Low Oct 12 / Low Oct 1 and the bear trigger

S&P E-minis maintain a bullish tone and the contract continues to defy gravity. Another all-time high print was registered Friday. These continued gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and the focus is on 4717.00 next, a Fibonacci projection. Trend signals such as moving average studies remain in a bull mode, reinforcing current conditions and market sentiment. The 50-day EMA at 4480.24 continues to represent a key support handle.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (F2) Bounces Off Recent Lows

• RES 4: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 3: $87.73 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 23 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
• RES 2: $85.77/87.00 - High Oct 25 / Round number resistance
• RES 1: $84.49 - High Nov 4
• PRICE: $83.70 @ 06:49 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $80.20 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: $79.29 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $78.42 - Low Oct 7
• SUP 4: $75.80 - Low Sep 30

Brent futures have bounced off recent lows. Bearish short-term conditions still prevail following last week's breach of support at $81.61, Oct 28 low and the move lower suggests a short-term corrective cycle has unfolded. The focus is on the 50-day EMA at $79.29. This is seen as a key short-term support and a clear break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance has been defined at $85.77, the Oct 25 high. A break would resume the uptrend.

WTI TECHS: (Z1) Still Vulnerable Despite Bounce

• RES 4: $88.96 - 1.382 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: $87.45 - 1.236 proj of the Sep 21 - Oct 6 - 7 price swing
• RES 2: $86.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 1: $83.42/85.41 - High Nov 4 / High Oct 25 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $82.21 @ 06:56 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $78.25 - Low Nov 4
• SUP 2: $77.33- 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: $74.67 - Low Oct 7 and key near-term support
• SUP 4: $72.82 - Low Sep 30

WTI futures maintain a bearish tone despite the bounce off last week's low. The Nov 3-4 sell-off resulted in a breach of support at $80.58, Oct 28 low and note that price also cleared the 20-day EMA. This suggests scope for a deeper corrective pullback and has opened the 50-day EMA at $77.33. This EMA is seen as a key S/T support and a clear break would suggest scope for a deeper pullback. Key resistance and the bull trigger is $85.41, Oct 25 high.

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Conditions Improve

• RES 4: $1863.3 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug sell-off
• RES 3: $1844.9 - Low Jun 14
• RES 2: $1834.0 - High Sep 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $1821.6 - Intraday high
• PRICE: $1815.6 @ 07:13 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $1783.0/1759.0 - 50-day EMA / Low Nov 3 and a key support
• SUP 2: $1746.0 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $1721.7 - Low Sep 29 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: $1717.8 - Low Aug 10

Gold reversed course Thursday and rebounded off Wednesday's low of $1759.0. The turnaround reinstates a potential bullish outlook and the yellow metal has traded above $1813.8, Oct 22 high. The breach of this level strengthens a short-term bullish case and signals scope for a climb towards $1834.0, the Sep 3 high. Key short-term support is at $1759.0, a break would be bearish.

SILVER TECHS: Remains Below Resistance

• RES 4: $26.002 - High Aug 4
• RES 3: $25.206 - High Jun 8
• RES 2: $24.867 - High Sep 3 and the reversal trigger
• RES 1: $24.828 - High Oct 22
• PRICE: $24.181 @ 07:19 GMT Nov 8
• SUP 1: $23.015 - Low Oct 18
• SUP 2: $22.213 - Low Oct 6
• SUP 3: $21.423 - Low Sep 29 and key support
• SUP 4: $20.871 - 50.0% retracement of the Mar '20 - Feb '21 rally

Recent Silver weakness is still weighing on the metal despite the recent bounce. The move lower last week has exposed support at $23.015, Oct 18 low. A break would further threaten the recent bullish theme. This would open $22.213, Oct 6 low and suggest potential for weakness towards $21.423, the Sep 29 low. Key resistance has been defined at $24.828, the Oct 22 high. A break would instead resume the uptrend and expose $24.867 key resistance.