MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Bunds Retain Solid Uptrend

Price Signal Summary - Bunds Retain Solid Uptrend

• In the equity space, S&P E-minis outlook remains bullish. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain near recent highs. A bullish short-term theme is intact though following the recent print above a key near-term resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high.
• In FX, the USD outlook is unchanged and remains bullish. EURUSD is firmer and has traded above former resistance at 1.1851, Jul 15 high. Gains are still considered corrective, in line with a bearish trend direction. GBPUSD is trading higher and has moved above the 50-day EMA. The climb above this average strengthens the current corrective recovery, signalling scope for gains towards 1.3990 next, a Fibonacci retracement. USDJPY failed at yesterday's high and appears weaker again. A bearish focus dominates following the recent Jul 19 break of support at 109.53, Jul 8 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold has recovered from recent lows and support has remained intact. The outlook is bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Brent futures remain firm. Price has recently cleared $73.87, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg. The breach of this level strengthens the short-term bullish case and puts on hold the recent bearish theme. WTI futures are firmer and have resumed the rebound from $65.01, Jul 20 low.
• Within FI, Bund futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded higher yesterday, as the current bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows extends. Gilt futures are consolidating. A bullish condition dominates though following recent gains and the break of 129.92, Jul 8 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce

• RES 4: 1.2006 High Jun 29 / Jun 17
• RES 3: 1.1975 High Jun 25
• RES 2: 1.1917/30 50-day EMA / High Jun 29
• RES 1: 1.1881 High Jul 9
• PRICE: 1.1856 @ 06:02 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 1.1752 Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1738 Low Apr 5
• SUP 3: 1.1704 Low Mar 31 and a key support
• SUP 4: 1.1603 Low Nov 4, 2020

EURUSD is firmer and has traded above former resistance at 1.1851, Jul 15 high. Gains are still considered corrective, in line with a bearish trend direction. A continuation higher however would suggest scope for a stronger corrective bounce ahead of the 50-day EMA at 1.1917. A clear break of this average is required to signal a more significant reversal. On the downside, the bear trigger is at 1.1752, Jul 21 low.

GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through The 50-Day EMA

• RES 4: 1.4133 High Jun 16
• RES 3: 1.4088 76.4% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• RES 2: 1.4001 High Jun 23
• RES 1: 1.3990 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 20 sell-off
• PRICE: 1.3930 @ 06:20 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 1.3767, Low Jul 27
• SUP 2: 1.3720/3572 Low Jul 23 / Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3520/3497 Low Jan 18 / 2.0%10-dma envelope
• SUP 4: 1.3452 Low Jan 11

GBPUSD is trading higher and has moved above the 50-day EMA. The climb above this average strengthens the current corrective recovery, signalling scope for gains towards 1.3990 next, a Fibonacci retracement. This lies ahead of a key short-term level at 1.4001, the Jun 23 high. A failure ahead of these levels would suggest the end of the current correction. First support is at 1.3767, Jul 27 low.

EURGBP TECHS: Probes Key Support

• RES 4: 0.8701/21 High May 7 / High Apr 26 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 0.8672 High May 25
• RES 2: 0.8670 High Jul 20 and 76.4% of the Apr - Jul bearish phase
• RES 1: 0.8583 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 0.8511 @ 06:25 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 0.8500 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 0.8482 1% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 0.8472 Low Apr 5
• SUP 4: 0.8430 Low Feb 27, 2020

EURGBP is weaker and continues to extend last week's sell-off and reversal from the Jul 20 high. The sharp move lower places on hold, a recent bullish focus. Instead, attention is on support at 0.8504, the Jul 14 low and a near-term bear trigger. This level has been probed. A clear break would strengthen a bearish case and open 0.8472, the Apr 5 low. On the upside, key resistance is unchanged at 0.8670, the Jul 20 high.

USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Focus

• RES 4: 111.71 High Mar 24, 2020
• RES 3: 111.66 High Jul 2 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 110.70/82 High Jul 14/ High Jul 7
• RES 1: 110.59 High Jul 23
• PRICE: 109.72 @ 06:30 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 109.59/07 Low Jul 27 / Low Jul 19
• SUP 2: 108.56 Low May 25
• SUP 3: 108.47/34 76.4% of the Apr 23 - Jul 2 rally / Low May 7
• SUP 4: 108.08 Low Apr 27

USDJPY failed at yesterday's high and appears weaker again. A bearish focus dominates following the recent Jul 19 break of support at 109.53, Jul 8 low. The move lower marks a resumption of the reversal from early July and paves the way for an extension lower. Note that support at 109.19 has also been breached, Jun 7 low. Attention is on 108.47, a Fibonacci retracement. Firm short-term resistance is unchanged at 110.70, Jul 14 high.

EURJPY TECHS: Consolidating

• RES 4: 132.43 High Jul 1
• RES 3: 131.86 Jul 6 high
• RES 2: 131.05/09 50-day EMA / High Jul 13
• RES 1: 130.43 High Jul 14
• PRICE: 130.06 @ 06:39 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 129.49 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 128.60 Low Jul 20 and the bear trigger / 200-dma
• SUP 3: 128.29 Low Mar 24 and key support
• SUP 4: 127.88 38.2% retracement of the Oct '20 - Jun rally

EURJPY is consolidating. The cross remains bearish and recent gains are still considered corrective. Attention is on the 200-dma at 12860. A clear break of the average would reinforce the current bearish theme and signal scope for an extension of the downtrend. Note, momentum and moving average studies remain bearish. Potential is for a move to 127.88, 38.2% of the Oct '20 - Jun rally. 130.43, marks resistance.

AUDUSD TECHS: In A Range

• RES 4: 0.7528 50-day EMA
• RES 3: 0.7503 High Jul 13
• RES 2: 0.7487 High Jul 15
• RES 1: 0.7428/29 20-day EMA / High Jul 19
• PRICE: 0.7381 @ 19:48 BST Jul 28
• SUP 2: 0.7290 Low Jul 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.7284 Low Nov 24, 2020
• SUP 3: 0.7235 1.382 proj of Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.7222 Low Nov 13, 2020

AUDUSD continues to trade within its recent range. The trend outlook remains bearish. This follows the recent breach of a channel base, drawn from the Feb 25 high. Despite the fact that price is back inside the channel area, the move lower marks an important technical break, signalling potential for 0.7235 next, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 25 - Apr 1 - May 10 price swing. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is at 0.7429, Jul 19 high.

USDCAD TECHS: Lower And Through Support

• RES 4: 1.2881 High Jan 28
• RES 3: 1.2807/46 High Jul 19 / 1.236 proj of Jun 1 - 21- 23 swing
• RES 2: 1.2730 High Jul 20
• RES 1: 1.2607 High Jul 23
• PRICE: 1.2485 @ 06:54 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 1.2428/20 Low Jul 14 / 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.2407 50.0% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 19 rally
• SUP 3: 1.2313 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - Jul 19 rally
• SUP 4: 1.2253 Low Jun 23

USDCAD is lower this morning. The pair has breached immediate support at1.2525, Jul 28 low and 1.2502, Jul 14 low. The break suggests scope for a deeper corrective pullback and attention is on the 50-day EMA that intersects at 1.2420 today. A clear breach of the average is needed to strengthen the current downward cycle. On the upside, initial resistance is at 1.2607, Jul 23 high. A break of this level would ease the bearish pressure.

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U1) Bullish Price Sequence Extends

• RES 4: 178.32 High Jan 27 (cont)
• RES 3: 177.19 1.618 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 2: 176.79 1.50 proj of the May 19 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 176.67 Intraday high
• PRICE: 176.58 @ 05:13 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 175.24 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 174.77/45 High Jul 8 / Low Jul 15
• SUP 3: 173.70 Low Jul 13 and 14
• SUP 4: 173.67 50-day EMA

Bund futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded higher yesterday, as the current bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows extends. A continuation higher would signal scope for a climb towards 176.79 next, a Fibonacci extension. Moving average conditions remain in bull mode, reinforcing the current positive trend structure. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 175.24, Jul 22 low.

BOBL TECHS: (U1) Northbound

• RES 4: 135.575 1.618 proj of May 20 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 3: 135.520 High Mar 25, (cont)
• RES 2: 135.450 1.50 proj of the May 20 - Jun 11 - Jun 22 price swing
• RES 1: 135.400 High Jul 28 and intraday high
• PRICE: 135.390 @ 05:13 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 135.010/134.900 Low Jul 23 / Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 134.783/710 20-day EMA / High Jul 8
• SUP 3: 134.531 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 134.410 Low Jul 13 and a key support

Bobl futures have added to recent gains, trading higher yesterday as a bullish theme continues to dominate. The break on Jul 8 of 134.510, Jun 11 high and a Fibonacci projection confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and bulls have not looked back. Note too that the rising channel top drawn from the May 20 low has also been breached. The focus is on 135.450, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 134.900, Jul 22 high.

SCHATZ TECHS: (U1) Defying Gravity

• RES 4: 112.412 2.50 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 3: 112.400 2.382 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 2: 112.385 2.236 proj of the Jun 22 - Jul 8 - Jul 13 price swing
• RES 1: 112.365 High Jan 27 (cont) and intraday high
• PRICE: 112.355 @ 05:20 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 112.285 Low Jul 26
• SUP 2: 112.245 Low Jul 21
• SUP 3: 112.210 Low Jul 20
• SUP 4: 112.180/150 Low Jul 16 / Low Jul 13

Schatz futures remain bullish and the contract continues to climb. The clear break on Jul 20 of resistance at 112.210, Jun 11 high established an uptrend. Further gains are favoured with the focus on 112.365, Jan 27 high (cont) and 112.385 next, a Fibonacci projection. Recent gains have also established a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Initial support is seen at 112.285, Jul 26 low.

GILT TECHS: (U1) Bullish Focus

• RES 4: 131.37 38.2% retracement of the Aug '20 - Jun sell-off
• RES 3: 130.72 2.236 proj of the May 13 - 26 - Jun 3 price swing
• RES 2: 130.62 High Feb 22 (cont)
• RES 1: 130.48 High Jul 20 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 129.69 @ Close Jul 28
• SUP 1: 129.10 Low Jul 22
• SUP 2: 128.54/39 Low Jul 14 / High Jun 11 and recent breakout level
• SUP 3: 128.03 Jul 6
• SUP 4: 127.25 Low Jun 10

Gilt futures are consolidating. A bullish condition dominates though following recent gains and the break of 129.92, Jul 8 high. The move above this level confirmed a resumption of the uptrend from mid-May and maintains a bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The focus is on 130.62, Feb 22 high (cont). Note, the Jul 21 close highlights an evening star candle reversal pattern, a concern for bulls. Watch support at 128.54, low Jul 14.

BTP TECHS: (U1) Consolidating At Recent Highs

• RES 4: 156.73 1.236 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 3: 155.44 1.00 proj of May 19 - Jun 14 - Jun 25 price swing
• RES 2: 155.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 154.42 High Jul 26
• PRICE: 154.307 @ Close Jul 28
• SUP 1: 153.04/152.65 20-day EMA / Low Jul 14
• SUP 2: 152.48 Bull channel base drawn off the May 19 low
• SUP 3: 151.93/54 Low Jul 8 / Low Jul 6
• SUP 4: 151.19 High Jul 1

BTPs remain bullish and are trading at recent highs. A positive outlook follows the recent resumption of the uptrend - gains on Jul 6 and 7 resulted in a breach of a former key resistance at 152.47, Jun 14 high. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started May 19. Subsequent gains reinforce the bullish theme and attention is on the 155.00 handle next. Initial support is at 153.04, the 20-day EMA.

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX 50 TECHS: (U1) Needle Still Points North

• RES 4: 4218.00 1.00 proj of the May 13 - Jun 17 - Jul 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4153.00 High Jun 17 and bull trigger
• RES 2: 4121.00 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 4111.50 High Jul 23
• PRICE: 4088.50 @ 05:53 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: 4029.50 High Jul 22
• SUP 2: 3944.00/3895.00 Low Jul 21 / Low Jul 19
• SUP 3: 3871.00 Low Jul 21 / Low May 19
• SUP 4: 3830.00 Low May 13 and a key support

EUROSTOXX 50 futures remain near recent highs. A bullish short-term theme is intact though following the recent print above a key near-term resistance at 4101.50, Jul 1 high. The breach of this level puts on hold a recent bearish outlook and instead signals scope for a stronger recovery. Attention shifts to the 4153.00 key resistance, Jun 17 high. Key support has been defined at 3895.00.

E-MINI S&P (U1): Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 4542.58 1.236 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 3: 4500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 4481 75.1.00 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• RES 1: 4420.92 0.764 proj of Jun 21 - Jul 14 - 19 price swing
• PRICE: 4391.50 @ 06:59 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 4342.30 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 4270.65/4224.00 50-day EMA / Low Jul 19 and key support
• SUP 3: 4126.75 Low Jun 21
• SUP 4: 4046.00 Low May 19

S&P E-minis outlook remains bullish. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the uptrend and signal scope for a continuation near-term. The sell-off Jul 14 - 19 resulted in a break of 4279.25, Jul 8 low. However the contract found support at the 50-day EMA - this EMA represents an important area of support and the bounce from the EMA is bullish with the focus on 4420.92 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at 4224.00, Jul 19 low.

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U1) Bullish Outlook

• RES 4: $78.03 - High Oct 29, 2018 (cont)
• RES 3: $77.84 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $76.72 - High Jul 14
• RES 1: $75.39 - 76.4% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg
• PRICE: $75.13 @ 06:53 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $73.66 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $71.74 Low Jul 22
• SUP 3: $67.44/43 - Low Jul 20 / 76.4% of the May 21 - Jul 6 rally
• SUP 4: $66.11 - Low May 24

Brent futures remain firm. Price has recently cleared $73.87, the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg. The breach of this level strengthens the short-term bullish case and puts on hold the recent bearish theme. The move higher also signals scope for a climb towards key resistance at $77.84, the Jul 6 high. A reversal lower is required to refocus attention on $67.44, Jul 20 low and key support.

WTI TECHS: (U1) Clears The 61.8% Retracement

• RES 4: $76.48 0.764 proj of the May 21 - Jul 6 - Jul 20 price swing
• RES 3: $76.07 - High Jul 6 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $74.90 - High Jul 13
• RES 1: $73.46 - 76% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg
• PRICE: $72.76 @ 07:01 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $69.71 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $65.01/64.60 - Low Jul 20 / 76.4% of the May 21 - Jul 6 rally
• SUP 3: $63.10 - Low May 24
• SUP 4: $61.06 - Low May 21 and key support

WTI futures are firmer and have resumed the rebound from $65.01, Jul 20 low. Price has cleared the 61.8% retracement of the Jul 6 - 20 downleg at $71.85. The break strengthens a bullish case and has put on hold a recent bearish theme.This signals scope for a climb towards key resistance at $76.07, the Jul 6 high. A reversal lower would refocus attention on $65.01, Jul 20 low and the key support.

GOLD TECHS: Recovers From Recent Lows

• RES 4: $1877.5 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 3: $1863.3 - High Jun 16
• RES 2: $1853.3 - 61.8% retracement of the Jun 1 - 29 decline
• RES 1: $1834.1 - High Jul 15 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: $1817.3 @ 07:16 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $1790.0 Low Jul 23
• SUP 2: $1774.4/1750.8 - Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 29
• SUP 3: $1733.5 -76.4% retracement of the Mar 8 - Jun 1 rally
• SUP 4: $1723.8 - Low Apr 13

Gold has recovered from recent lows and support has remained intact. The outlook is bullish and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Price however needs to clear $1834.1, Jul 15 high to confirm a resumption of the bull cycle. Support to watch is $1790.0, Jul 23 low. A clear breach would be bearish and instead signal scope for an extension lower towards key support at $1750.8, Jun 29 low.

SILVER TECHS: Bounce Considered Corrective

• RES 4: $27.831 - High Jun 16
• RES 3: $26.775/27.245 - High Jul 6 and key resistance / High Jun 17
• RES 2: $26.467 - High Jul 14
• RES 1: $25.477/761 - High Jul 23 / High Jul 19
• PRICE: $25.293 @ 07:37 BST Jul 29
• SUP 1: $24.496 - Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: $24.257 - Low Apr 1
• SUP 3: $23.781 - Low Mar 31and key support
• SUP 4: $23.524 - Low Dec 7, 2020

Silver traded lower Tuesday confirming a resumption of the downtrend. Price has since recovered although gains are likely corrective. The outlook remains bearish with the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs continuing to dominate. Attention is on $24.257, Apr 1 low and key support at $23.781, the Mar 31 low. Moving average studies also point south, reinforcing the current trend direction. Initial resistance is at $25.477, Jul 23 high.